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Read below for the fantasy basketball forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the NBA schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's ability.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top 150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which ones to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the forecaster.
The week ahead
The action picks up this week, with a whopping 20 teams playing four games, eight playing three and only two playing only twice. Because of this, any of the 10 teams with fewer than four games are at a real disadvantage when it comes to weekly starts. Both two-game teams are among the three really low Forecaster scores, whereas all six of the very high Forecaster scores come from teams that play four times.
The Thunder turned in a perfect 10 on the Forecaster for the second week in a row, highlighted by two games against the extremely defensively friendly Hawks and Timberwolves. The Nuggets, Spurs and Raptors each earned 9s, each with games against suspect defensive teams and with zero back-to-backs despite playing four games. The Rockets and Clippers round out the high scores this week, each turning their four games into 8s on the Forecaster.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Hornets turned in the lowest score of the week with a 1 with only two games. The Bucks also only play twice, and even though they are one of the most potent offenses in the league they still only managed a 3 on the Forecaster. The Cavaliers are the only team with three games in the low score group due to their own offensive weaknesses, managing only a 3 despite games against beatable defenses like the Knicks, Wizards and Bulls.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting due to the combination of the schedule and injuries.
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Forecaster matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date and past-10-games statistics, opponents' numbers in those categories and performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that team's weekly schedule.