As spring approaches, so does the NBA postseason. The transition to contender mode has been activated around the league, highlighted by Saturday's marquee matchup between the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers.
Could this matchup, which airs on ABC, be a preview of summer basketball? It's a bit early for such predictions and proclamations, but we should see a playoff-like atmosphere unfold in Massachusetts. The matchup of classic rivals helps define a competitive theme threaded throughout Saturday's eight games.
In fact, we don't have any double-digit spreads on the schedule. Even games between lottery-bound teams such as the Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors are set with intriguing ingredients; the Raptors are small favorites in a game that should be light on defense. We discuss several streaming candidates from this contest below.
For those teams not in title contention, such as the Chicago Bulls, we can find value in statistical splits. Certain players tend to spike statistically when elevated to important roles, which can be revealed when we analyze a players' statistical splits between starting and sitting. We tend to learn who these players might be right around now. Chicago's Zach Collins is emerging as a strong candidate.
Let's delve deeper into the matchup metrics and uncover the most promising opportunities for this busy Saturday of hoops.
Saturday's stream team
Tari Eason, SF/PF, Houston Rockets (Rostered in 30.5% of ESPN leagues)
I tend to like "glue" guys. You know, those gritty two-way players who impact the game in meaningful, if sometimes quiet, ways. Sometimes, those ways are loud, such as Eason's six combined steals and blocks in a strong showing against the Pelicans a few nights ago. Those same Pelicans are on the schedule Saturday night.
Zach Collins, C/PF, Chicago Bulls (15.1%)
A splits season star, Collins is shining whenever he's tabbed as a starter in place of Nikola Vucevic. A look through the game log reveals that Collins can't be played in fantasy lineups whenever Vucevic does, but with the team's star center out against the Heat, we'll see lots of Collins with the ball in the high post. A double-double is possible.
Alex Sarr, C/PF, Washington Wizards (23.1%)
This is somehow the day for wizardry on the waiver wire, with a trio of Washington rookies making the cut. The key with Sarr is rim protection, as he's capable of posting strong block results while also becoming more bankable on the boards. The Raptors, meanwhile, could be forced to play small with Jakob Poetl on the mend.
Bub Carrington, PG/SG, Washington Wizards (8.7%)
After years of playing the middle, the Wizards seem to have a direction. That direction is lottery odds and also includes lots of playing time for rookies such as Carrington and Kyshawn George. Carrington is more of a creator, with George capable of playing bully ball around the glass. Both should see plenty of work against the Raptors.
McCormick bets for Saturday
Damian Lillard over 27.5 total points and rebounds (-115)
This line comes in a good bit under Lillard's seasonal averages. The Bucks aren't huge favorites, although the total for this game is a second-lowest only to the Brooklyn Nets vs. Charlotte Hornets lottery party. The Magic defense has been top 10 the past 10 games, but the Bucks are third in pace during this same stretch and Lillard, despite his frame, is a quality rebounder for a lead creator. The key angle is scoring; the absence of Jalen Suggs plays a part in my confidence that Lillard will be able to create his own looks and feast off of the gravity Giannis Antetokounmpo creates.
Tari Eason over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+115)
It's not often that I'm optimistic about the offensive upside of Eason, but his precedent against the Pelicans, having just shot eight 3-pointers against New Orleans, helps create this outlier moment. The Pelicans don't have Herbert Jones, essentially the Eason of their rotation, which means more open catch-and-shoot and clean off-ball moments for this two-way forward.
LeBron James over 6.5 assists (-120)
My favorite prop from this big game landed on James' passing potential. He and Luka Doncic have nearly identical advanced passing production of late, provign close in both total and potential assists the past five games. Doncic's assist prop is up to 8.5 against Boston, which makes sense in that he's on the ball often and running more actions than James. My angle with James stems from the spacing Doncic helps create and how, for maybe the first time since working with Kyrie Irving, he can serve as a complementary playmaker and not the entire engine. The conversion rate of passes to assists has been strong while playing with Doncic. This could continue in Boston tonight.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Players in italics are available in a majority of ESPN Leagues
Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets
6 p.m. ET
Line: Nets -4.5 (-110) | Hornets 4.5 (-110)
Money line: Nets -185 | Hornets +155
Total: 211.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Nets by 0.4, straight up 51%, 210.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Cameron Johnson, (OUT - Knee); De'Anthony Melton, (OUT - Knee)
Hornets: Mark Williams, (OUT - Foot); Josh Okogie, (OUT - Hamstring); Brandon Miller, (OUT - Wrist); Grant Williams, (OUT - Knee); Tre Mann, (OUT - Back)
Nets projections:
Cam Thomas, SG/SF: 32.6 FPTS (22.1 pts, 3.0 reb, 3.6 ast, 2.4 3PM)
D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG: 25.5 FPTS (12.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 4.2 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Nic Claxton, C: 24.7 FPTS (11.2 pts, 7.5 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.0 blk)
Keon Johnson, SG: 23.8 FPTS (12.1 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.2 ast)
Ziaire Williams, SF: 21.6 FPTS (10.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.4 ast)
Day'Ron Sharpe, C: 17.6 FPTS (7.5 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.9 ast)
Jalen Wilson, PF: 17.4 FPTS (9.5 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.9 ast)
Hornets projections:
Miles Bridges, SF/PF: 41.8 FPTS (23.9 pts, 7.8 reb, 4.1 ast, 2.3 3PM)
LaMelo Ball, PG: 41.8 FPTS (22.5 pts, 4.7 reb, 6.0 ast, 3.6 3PM)
Nick Smith Jr., SG: 20.4 FPTS (11.1 pts, 2.6 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Jusuf Nurkic, C: 19.5 FPTS (8.6 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.1 ast)
KJ Simpson, PG: 18.7 FPTS (9.0 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.6 ast)
Josh Green, SG/SF: 16.9 FPTS (8.5 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.6 ast)
Jared Rhoden, SG: 15.7 FPTS (9.0 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.1 ast)
New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets
7 p.m. ET
Line: Pelicans 8.5 (-115) | Rockets -8.5 (-105)
Money line: Pelicans +270 | Rockets -340
Total: 229.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Rockets by 9.5, straight up 78%, 225.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Pelicans: Jose Alvarado, (GTD - Hip); Brandon Boston, (OUT - Ankle); Dejounte Murray, (OUT - Achilles); Herbert Jones, (OUT - Shoulder)
Rockets: Fred VanVleet, (OUT - Ankle); Reed Sheppard, (OUT - Thumb)
Pelicans projections:
Zion Williamson, PF: 37.9 FPTS (23.0 pts, 7.4 reb, 5.1 ast)
Trey Murphy III, SG/SF: 33.8 FPTS (17.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 4.9 ast, 3.2 3PM)
CJ McCollum, PG/SG: 33.7 FPTS (20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 4.9 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Jose Alvarado, PG: 24.9 FPTS (9.4 pts, 2.4 reb, 4.5 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Kelly Olynyk, PF/C: 21.2 FPTS (9.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 2.6 ast)
Jordan Hawkins, SG: 16.1 FPTS (8.5 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.6 ast)
Yves Missi, C: 15.8 FPTS (7.7 pts, 7.4 reb, 0.9 ast)
Rockets projections:
Alperen Sengun, C: 37.9 FPTS (19.4 pts, 9.7 reb, 4.8 ast)
Jalen Green, SG: 33.9 FPTS (20.1 pts, 4.1 reb, 3.7 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Amen Thompson, SG/SF/PF: 32.1 FPTS (15.1 pts, 8.5 reb, 4.5 ast)
Tari Eason, SF/PF: 28.1 FPTS (13.1 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.6 ast)
Dillon Brooks, SG/SF: 23.6 FPTS (13.2 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Jabari Smith Jr., PF/C: 17.7 FPTS (10.1 pts, 4.9 reb, 0.8 ast)
Cam Whitmore, SF: 16.1 FPTS (9.3 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.2 ast)
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Pacers -3.5 (-105) | Hawks 3.5 (-115)
Money line: Pacers -150 | Hawks +125
Total: 243.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Pacers by 3.3, straight up 61%, 242.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Pacers: Aaron Nesmith, (GTD - Hip); Bennedict Mathurin, (GTD - Wrist); Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD - Hip); Isaiah Jackson, (OUT - Achilles)
Hawks: Caris LeVert, (GTD - Knee); Daeqwon Plowden, (GTD - Elbow); Terance Mann, (GTD - Quadriceps); Trae Young, (GTD - Achilles); Vit Krejci, (GTD - Back); Larry Nance Jr., (OUT - Knee); Jalen Johnson, (OUT - Shoulder); Kobe Bufkin, (OUT - Shoulder)
Pacers projections:
Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG: 40.8 FPTS (18.8 pts, 3.1 reb, 7.2 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Pascal Siakam, PF: 38.0 FPTS (23.1 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.2 ast)
Myles Turner, C: 28.5 FPTS (16.3 pts, 5.6 reb, 2.1 ast, 2.0 3PM, 1.6 blk)
Andrew Nembhard, PG/SG: 25.4 FPTS (11.6 pts, 3.0 reb, 4.9 ast)
Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF: 20.3 FPTS (13.0 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.9 ast)
Aaron Nesmith, SF: 19.8 FPTS (10.4 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.6 ast)
T.J. McConnell, PG: 17.7 FPTS (8.2 pts, 1.9 reb, 3.2 ast)
Hawks projections:
Trae Young, PG: 44.7 FPTS (24.6 pts, 2.7 reb, 9.2 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Dyson Daniels, PG/SG: 28.2 FPTS (12.8 pts, 4.8 reb, 4.2 ast)
Onyeka Okongwu, C: 27.1 FPTS (12.9 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.2 ast)
Caris LeVert, SG/SF: 24.6 FPTS (13.2 pts, 2.9 reb, 3.1 ast)
Zaccharie Risacher, PF/SF: 19.9 FPTS (11.4 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.4 ast)
Mouhamed Gueye, PF: 16.6 FPTS (7.9 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.0 ast)
Vit Krejci, PG: 16.4 FPTS (6.4 pts, 2.6 reb, 2.9 ast)
Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Wizards 3.5 (-115) | Raptors -3.5 (-105)
Money line: Wizards +130 | Raptors -150
Total: 223.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Raptors by 6.5, straight up 70%, 230.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Wizards: Jordan Poole, (GTD - Elbow); Richaun Holmes, (GTD - Knee); Colby Jones, (OUT - Achilles); Malcolm Brogdon, (OUT - Ankle); Saddiq Bey, (OUT - Knee)
Raptors: Chris Boucher, (GTD - Teeth); Ja'Kobe Walter, (OUT - Quadriceps); Ochai Agbaji, (OUT - Ankle); Jonathan Mogbo, (OUT - Nose); Gradey Dick, (OUT - Knee); Brandon Ingram, (OUT - Ankle); Ulrich Chomche, (OUT - Knee)
Wizards projections:
Jordan Poole, PG/SG: 32.7 FPTS (19.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 4.0 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Bilal Coulibaly, SG/SF: 25.2 FPTS (12.4 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.7 ast)
Kyshawn George, SG/SF: 23.7 FPTS (11.4 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Bub Carrington, PG/SG: 23.4 FPTS (10.5 pts, 4.1 reb, 4.0 ast)
Khris Middleton, SF: 22.4 FPTS (11.0 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.4 ast)
Alex Sarr, PF/C: 22.4 FPTS (10.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.3 blk)
Corey Kispert, SG/SF: 17.3 FPTS (10.0 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Raptors projections:
Scottie Barnes, SG/SF/PF: 44.3 FPTS (21.1 pts, 8.0 reb, 6.7 ast, 1.6 blk)
RJ Barrett, SG/SF/PF: 30.1 FPTS (15.4 pts, 4.8 reb, 4.9 ast)
Ja'Kobe Walter, SG: 19.6 FPTS (9.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.0 ast)
Jamal Shead, PG: 19.2 FPTS (8.8 pts, 2.3 reb, 3.9 ast)
Orlando Robinson, C: 17.6 FPTS (7.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.8 ast)
A.J. Lawson, SG: 15.6 FPTS (8.4 pts, 2.4 reb, 1.3 ast)
Jamison Battle, SF: 13.8 FPTS (7.5 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.1 ast)
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
8 p.m. ET
Line: Bulls 4.5 (-110) | Heat -4.5 (-110)
Money line: Bulls +150 | Heat -180
Total: 226.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI Projection: Heat by 3.5, straight up 62%, 231.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Coby White, (GTD - Toe); Patrick Williams, (GTD - Quadriceps); Talen Horton-Tucker, (GTD - Ankle); Ayo Dosunmu, (OUT - Shoulder)
Heat: Alec Burks, (GTD - Back); Andrew Wiggins, (OUT - Ankle); Kel'el Ware, (GTD - Knee); Nikola Jovic, (OUT - Hand); Dru Smith, (OUT - Achilles)
Bulls projections:
Josh Giddey, PG/SG/PF: 37.4 FPTS (17.0 pts, 8.6 reb, 6.0 ast)
Nikola Vucevic, C: 35.1 FPTS (16.9 pts, 10.4 reb, 3.4 ast)
Coby White, PG/SG: 33.5 FPTS (19.4 pts, 3.8 reb, 4.2 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Zach Collins, PF/C: 24.0 FPTS (11.3 pts, 7.3 reb, 2.5 ast)
Lonzo Ball, PG: 18.8 FPTS (6.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.6 ast)
Matas Buzelis, SF: 17.9 FPTS (9.7 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.5 ast)
Tre Jones, PG: 16.5 FPTS (7.3 pts, 2.6 reb, 3.1 ast)
Heat projections:
Bam Adebayo, PF/C: 44.7 FPTS (23.5 pts, 10.5 reb, 4.5 ast)
Tyler Herro, PG/SG: 43.4 FPTS (24.5 pts, 4.8 reb, 6.4 ast, 3.5 3PM)
Davion Mitchell, PG: 22.2 FPTS (10.6 pts, 2.5 reb, 4.8 ast)
Terry Rozier, PG/SG: 20.7 FPTS (11.6 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.5 ast)
Duncan Robinson, SF: 20.2 FPTS (10.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Haywood Highsmith, SF: 17.1 FPTS (7.8 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.6 ast)
Kevin Love, PF/C: 15.1 FPTS (6.5 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.7 ast)
Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. ET
Line: Magic 6.5 (-110) | Bucks -6.5 (-110)
Money line: Magic +215 | Bucks -260
Total: 218.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Magic by 0.2, straight up 51%, 215.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Magic: Jalen Suggs, (OUT - Knee); Moritz Wagner, (OUT - Knee)
Bucks: Damian Lillard, (GTD - Eye); Gary Trent Jr., (GTD - Knee); Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Calf); Pat Connaughton, (OUT - Calf); Bobby Portis, (OUT - Suspension)
Magic projections:
Paolo Banchero, SF/PF: 41.9 FPTS (27.2 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.5 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Franz Wagner, SF/PF: 39.8 FPTS (23.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.4 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Cole Anthony, PG: 20.1 FPTS (10.9 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.6 ast)
Wendell Carter Jr., C: 19.8 FPTS (8.7 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.0 ast)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF: 16.5 FPTS (8.3 pts, 2.1 reb, 1.5 ast)
Goga Bitadze, C: 14.6 FPTS (5.0 pts, 5.1 reb, 2.2 ast)
Mac McClung, SG: 14.4 FPTS (7.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.2 ast)
Bucks projections:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/C: 46.4 FPTS (29.2 pts, 11.5 reb, 6.0 ast)
Damian Lillard, PG: 43.4 FPTS (24.5 pts, 4.4 reb, 6.4 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Kyle Kuzma, SF/PF: 29.1 FPTS (17.6 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.7 ast)
Brook Lopez, C: 24.0 FPTS (12.2 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.2 ast, 1.8 3PM, 2.0 blk)
Tyler Smith, SF: 20.0 FPTS (9.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Gary Trent Jr., SG: 18.8 FPTS (10.7 pts, 2.1 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Taurean Prince, SF: 17.8 FPTS (7.9 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.0 ast)
Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics
8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Line: Lakers 7.5 (-110) | Celtics -7.5 (-110)
Money line: Lakers +230 | Celtics -280
Total: 226.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 6.1, straight up 69%, 225.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Lakers: Jaxson Hayes, (GTD - Knee); LeBron James, (GTD - Foot); Luka Doncic, (GTD - Knee); Rui Hachimura, (OUT - Knee); Maxi Kleber, (OUT - Foot)
Celtics: Jrue Holiday, (GTD - Finger); Kristaps Porzingis, (GTD - Illness); Sam Hauser, (GTD - Ankle)
Lakers projections:
Luka Doncic, PG: 50.8 FPTS (26.7 pts, 8.7 reb, 7.3 ast, 3.2 3PM)
LeBron James, SF/PF: 46.7 FPTS (26.0 pts, 9.2 reb, 7.2 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Austin Reaves, PG/SG/PF: 36.4 FPTS (19.0 pts, 4.7 reb, 5.9 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Dorian Finney-Smith, SF/PF: 18.8 FPTS (8.9 pts, 4.8 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Jaxson Hayes, C: 16.6 FPTS (7.5 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.2 ast)
Dalton Knecht, SG/SF: 16.0 FPTS (8.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.3 ast)
Gabe Vincent, PG: 15.0 FPTS (6.7 pts, 1.8 reb, 2.1 ast)
Celtics projections:
Jayson Tatum, SF/PF: 48.1 FPTS (27.7 pts, 8.3 reb, 6.1 ast, 3.6 3PM)
Jaylen Brown, SG/SF: 38.4 FPTS (23.1 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.6 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Derrick White, PG/SG: 30.1 FPTS (15.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 4.0 ast, 3.3 3PM)
Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C: 21.4 FPTS (11.8 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.6 ast)
Jrue Holiday, PG/SG: 20.7 FPTS (9.6 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.0 ast)
Payton Pritchard, PG: 20.4 FPTS (7.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Al Horford, PF/C: 16.3 FPTS (7.2 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.4 ast)
Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors
8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Pistons 6.5 (-115) | Warriors -6.5 (-105)
Money line: Pistons +195 | Warriors -230
Total: 235.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 4.4, straight up 64%, 230.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Pistons: Tobias Harris, (GTD - Personal); Jaden Ivey, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Warriors: Brandin Podziemski, (GTD - Back); Jonathan Kuminga, (OUT - Ankle)
Pistons projections:
Cade Cunningham, PG/SG: 46.8 FPTS (26.8 pts, 5.3 reb, 7.8 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Tobias Harris, SF/PF: 24.8 FPTS (13.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.1 ast)
Jalen Duren, C: 24.7 FPTS (11.2 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.4 ast)
Malik Beasley, SG: 23.6 FPTS (13.3 pts, 2.4 reb, 1.6 ast, 3.5 3PM)
Ausar Thompson, SF/PF: 22.2 FPTS (10.0 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.7 ast)
Dennis Schroder, PG: 21.3 FPTS (10.6 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.9 ast)
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF: 16.7 FPTS (9.3 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.7 ast)
Warriors projections:
Stephen Curry, PG: 48.1 FPTS (27.9 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.3 ast, 4.7 3PM)
Jimmy Butler, SG/SF/PF: 33.3 FPTS (17.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.0 ast)
Draymond Green, PF/C: 29.9 FPTS (11.1 pts, 5.9 reb, 6.1 ast)
Brandin Podziemski, PG/SG: 26.4 FPTS (12.0 pts, 4.9 reb, 3.3 ast)
Moses Moody, SG/SF: 19.9 FPTS (12.1 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Quinten Post, C: 18.9 FPTS (9.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.6 ast)
Buddy Hield, SG/SF: 18.9 FPTS (9.6 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.8 ast, 2.2 3PM)