Why do you do this?
Fantasy basketball management. What do you consider a satisfactory outcome to a season?
Are you satisfied with not great... as long as you're not awful?
Happy with respectable, solid, middle-of-the-pack finishes? Making the postseason as a low seed every other year? And every few seasons making a run all the way to the semifinals?
Or... are you not satisfied with anything less than a ring?
A championship-or-bust type? Someone who'd rather trust The Process and tank into a shot at securing a franchise-altering talent like Joel Embiid... even if you got fired mid-Process?
From a fantasy perspective, savvy managers know to track which teams have a decent chance of tanking. Because a tanking NBA team can hurt or help your fantasy team's chances.
A tanking franchise may decide to shutdown a star with a minor injury in March. It might trade a star to a contender, where he's demoted to a second or third offensive option. It might give young players more minutes... but not enough minutes (over 25 MPG) to give them fantasy traction.
Conversely, a tanking team can shake up a league. It can generate fresh value on your waiver wire. It can start giving 25-30 MPG to a young player with high upside. It can be forced to start a G-Leaguer at a key position. It can turn up the pace, hoping to inflate stats for future trades.
Let's take a look at some of the teams rumored to be at least mulling a retool, and identify which players a fire sale would help or hurt.
Washington Wizards
They're getting healthy. Won four of their last five. Sit just one game out of the Play-In. But at the same time, they're still six wins under .500 and just six wins better than the Pistons, way down in Wembanyama territory.
They have about 10 games to figure out which way this is headed. And then another 10 games to commensurate deals from said direction. No pressure, but this deadline represents Washington's last, best chance to stage a respectable teardown for the foreseeable future.
Because as untradeable as Bradley Beal's contract might seem right now? Right now is as good as that deal will look. The first-rounder they owe the Knicks is top-14 protected, but those protections dwindle in subsequent years.
(Not to mention, this is the moment for every team to consider positioning themselves for a puncher's chance at Wembanyama.)
My Washington Wizards -- from the concessions at Capital One Arena, to the top of their front office -- are the quintessential low-risk, medium-reward NBA franchise. The best way to tell if a team is stuck in the NBA middle is to look at where they draft in the first round. Here's where the Wizards have drafted since 2015: 19, 15, 9, 9, 15, 10. (And there are no Giannises in that gaggle of late-lottery selections.)
Going into this season, I believed -- and still believe -- that if the Wizards get to February and vibe Play-In at best, it would be better to enter fire sale mode. As a fantasy manager, I've kept a close eye on which way struggling teams are leaning.
If they can't move Beal or (more likely) decide to move him over the summer? I'd shut Beal down and let stunningly healthy Kristaps Porzingis (in his Player-Option year) continue to produce his way (21.9 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 1.0 steals, 1.8 3s) into a summertime bid for multi-year gazillions on the open market.
As you've undoubtedly heard, Kyle Kuzma's likeliest to be dealt. He's in his walk year. He's producing (21.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.5 3s) like a player in his walk year. He's proved just as valuable as Beal or Porzingis.
And thanks to relatively good health, in terms of total games fantasy value (not per game), Kuzma's currently a top-20 fantasy player in points leagues. But if the Wizards are looking Play-In at best, they'll have to see what kind of return they can get. If you roster Kuzma, this means you need to see if you can sell high. Because he won't be able to sustain that 27.1 usage rate on a contender.
If/when Kuzma is traded, Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija will benefit in fantasy. And since returning from a bone bruise last week, Hachimura has produced like a near-top-100 player (18.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.0 3s). It's been a Beal-less week, but that's fine, considering we're assessing Hachimura in a post-Kuzma rotation. But even then, I'd be hard-pressed to say he'll be any more than top-100.
Avdija is the more intriguing fantasy name due to: 1) his multi-categorical upside, 2) his improving true shooting percentage (55.7 TS% this past month), and 3) his under-appreciated point-forward ability (a ten-assist night back on 11/23.)
Outside of the Wizards' three stars, Avdija is the only player with an appreciable amount of untapped fantasy upside. (Daniel Gafford can look good for a week or two, but he's more of a matchup-dependent play.)
Charlotte Hornets
Already looking tank-ready at 9-26, there isn't another team on this list with as many tactical reasons to go full-on everything-must-go (outside of LaMelo Ball.)
Overproducing Mason Plumlee (10.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.4 blocks + steals), Jalen McDaniels (10.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.3 3s), and Kelly Oubre Jr. (20.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 2.4 3s) are pending unrestricted free agents. Eternally underrated P.J. Washington will be a restricted free agent (and a smart team could throw enough money at him to scare cost-conscious Charlotte out of matching.)
The first-rounder they owe San Antonio is top-16 protected (not to mention they'll likely receive Denver's first-rounder.) Gordon Hayward is back from his latest injury and doing enough to warrant interest from contending teams. Their only other player with tangible long-term upside (Miles Bridges) is still navigating the ramifications of his legal issues.
But most of all...the Hornets desperately need some sizzle to convince Ball to hang around for his second contract. Terry Rozier has regressed into his pre-contract year TS% (an analytically calamitous 48.5% to date). To net a second star, the Hornets need as many ping-pong balls as possible.
I could easily see Charlotte dealing as many as four-to-five players this deadline. Whoever's left will see plenty of touches... so long as they don't nudge the Hornets out of pole position for Wembanyama.
Chicago Bulls
The first-rounder they owe Orlando is only top-4 protected. That lack of protection will determine which way Chicago moves at the deadline. (But again: Wembanyama makes this a different kind of deadline.)
DeMar DeRozan (26.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.4 blocks + steals) seems the next-likeliest impact player to be dealt after Kuzma. Unlike Kuzma, DeRozan has another year on his contract (a plus for contenders). Like Kuzma, if DeRozan goes to a contender, his fantasy value drops. And like Kuzma, if you roster DeRozan... start working the phones.
In real-life NBA terms, the max deal Zach LaVine signed last offseason could prove as nearly tough to move as Beal's. But LaVine just posted a monster week (26.3 points, 4.0 assists, 3.3 3s)... enticing enough for a couple of desperate large-market clubs (Lakers, Knicks) to register real interest. And if LaVine stays healthy, the teams most willing to roll the dice may lack the assets needed to entertain his services.
A LaVine deal feels like a longshot. A deal involving restricted free agent Nikola Vucevic (16.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 3s) is far more likely. Considering what Chicago gave up for him, any Vucevic deal would be a clear signal the tank is on. The Bulls also are sitting on three underrated assets to sweeten the pot in any prospective move: 1) Portland's first-round pick, 2) Alex Caruso, and 3) Coby White.
Minnesota Timberwolves
If I owned the Timberwolves? I would view this season the same way as I viewed the deal my GM just made for Rudy Gobert: what's done is done...now please focus on doing whatever it takes to retain Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns. Deal everyone not Edwards or KAT to get some picks back in the mix, and let's look ahead.
But in reality-based terms, that's out of the question. The stunning amount of capital Minnesota surrendered for Rudy Gobert basically mandates giving Gobert a season to regain some value. Dealing Gobert so soon after shipping out a franchise-future-altering boatload of picks vibes impossible.
But... should Minnesota ever decide to go the route of this writer, they could ship out some interesting player combinations.
D'Angelo Russell is coming off a strong month (20.8 points, 6.2 assists, 2.9 3s, 1.3 blocks +steals) and is an unrestricted free agent. Jaylen Nowell is delivering in limited minutes (11.4 points, 0.6 steals, 1.2 3s in just 20.1 MPG). Jaden McDaniels is in the middle of his third two-week multi-categorical outburst of the season (14.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.6 3s, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.3 blocks.)
Los Angeles Lakers
It would have been more realistic to close this with some musings on the Raptors or Kings. It isn't easy to envision the Lakers trying to tear it down at the deadline. An all-in, end-of-days implosion would obviously start with some kind of "deal-me" signal from LeBron James. Davis would follow. And then the rest of the roster would be available for cap space salary dumps (Russell Westbrook.)
But league rules make a mid-season LeBron trade impossible; it couldn't happen until the summer at the earliest. Still, remember the Lakers' reality-show dynamic. LeBron's out-of-this-world play is forcing GM Rob Pelinka's hand. With every amazing box score, the small possibility of reaching tangible "improve the cast or end this" potential grows.
So the pressure to make some kind of deal is reaching critical mass. But what if Pelinka doesn't want to give up his last two firsts until the end of the decade? Maybe instead of surrendering what remains of his future assets for, say, Myles Turner + TBD and an outside shot at the conference finals.... Pelinka goes the other way.