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Points-league rankings and reaction
This was a big overhaul week in the NBA points league rankings, as we close out 2017. The season is 2½ months in, so a lot of the numbers are starting to solidify into who a player really is. There are still players whose value could change from their current averages, but now those types of situations have stories attached.
LaMarcus Aldridge's value probably will change because Kawhi Leonard is back ... OK.
Joel Embiid is still ranked slightly below his actual average because he's a health risk ... makes sense.
But this far into the season, we should be outside the window where a player just suddenly stops performing with no role change or outside interference. At least, for the most part. Therefore it was time to do some winter cleaning, especially in the top half of the rankings.
The biggest movers in this week seemed to be big men who don't necessarily have big names, but who have been performing consistently well all season. One of the first to bring this to my attention was one of my Twitter followers (follow me and ask questions @ProfessorDrz) named Ethan, who asked me about trading Clint Capela for Kemba Walker:
@ProfessorDrz Points Based League: Trade Capela for Kemba?
— Ethan Yablon (@YablonEthan) December 14, 2017
Walker was rated higher in the rankings, and without looking it up I'd have thought that Walker would be the bigger producer, but it turns out that Capela has actually been the better producer in the standard ESPN scoring system. And this far in, I don't see a reason why that would change. Thus, it was time to move Capela up over Walker.
That same dynamic happened several times in this week's rankings. Kevin Love was already highly rated, but his season scoring average pushed him higher. DeAndre Jordan moved into the top 20. Al Horford slid upward. Enes Kanter went for 30 points and 20 rebounds on Monday, but his season-long performance jumped him up into the top 30. Steven Adams isn't a member of the so-called OK3, but his consistent double-double production moved him well ahead of Carmelo Anthony and even Paul George based on his production to date.
Quite a few injured players also were big movers this week, as they fell early in their prognosis but are sliding upward as they continue their rehab and get closer to a return. Blake Griffin, for example, was due back in a month but now is expected as soon as this week. Considering his average pre-injury was in the top 20, he has now moved back solidly into the top 40. Stephen Curry, Isaiah Thomas, Chris Paul, Hassan Whiteside and Devin Booker could all be back within the week as well, so all of them moved up accordingly.
So, take some time and go through this week's rankings, as the top 50 to 100 slots have moved around quite a bit. As always, expect more changes next week as well, but on the whole the rankings are much more heavily tilted toward production than potential, this far into the season.
Positional breakdown
Point guard
* As mentioned earlier, Curry, Thomas and Paul all moved up after having fallen because of injury. Curry and Paul have already shown this season that they are big producers, but Thomas is a bit more of a question mark since he's on a new team, making his level harder to predict.
* Damian Lillard and Kyle Lowry joined Walker as bigger-named point guards who slid a bit because their production hasn't matched up to their name value this season.
* John Wall also has underperformed his name and dropped slightly, but his average last season was much higher and he has been dealing with injuries that have slowed him, so he is still projected to bounce back as the season goes along.
Shooting guard
* Victor Oladipo continues to move his way up the rankings. People have asked me whether I thought his start was a fluke, but on the contrary, his average for the last month is significantly higher than his average for the season. If anything, he's trending upward.
* Again, Booker is due back Tuesday, so he moves back into the top-40 range that he was inhabiting before the injury.
* Jimmy Butler continued his upward march, as he seems firmly entrenched as option 1B in Minnesota behind Karl-Anthony Towns.
* Tyreke Evans is another one that one of my Twitter followers asked me about, and his production with Mike Conley out earned him a big jump, at least until Conley shows he can return and cut into Evans' production.
Small forward
* Giannis Antetokounmpo re-took the top spot from James Harden this week. He lost the spot because Harden was going nuts before Paul's last return from injury, and there was some question at that time whether Eric Bledsoe might eat into Antetokounmpo's minutes. But, the Greek Freak has continued to dominate, and Harden has shown that he might take a half-step back when Paul is healthy, so it was time to switch them back.
* Leonard was 11th in fantasy points last season, and had moved back up in that range upon his return. However, the Spurs are taking it very slow in ramping his minutes up, so for now he slides a bit in the rankings. Once he shows that he's the old Kawhi, he'll move back up.
* Andrew Wiggins fell through the floor on these rankings. A Twitter follower had asked me about him, as well, and I felt (and still kind of feel) that eventually he'll re-settle back in as a consistent 20-plus point scorer, at the least. However, that's not what has been happening, and with the way that Butler and Taj Gibson have stepped forward, it's not clear that it will happen anytime soon. Until then, Wiggins will be much further down than his usual.
Power forward
* Ben Simmons was in the top 10 on the strength of his nightly triple-double potential, but his scoring and assists have stalled lately. Thus, he slides until he shows that he can make the necessary adjustments to regain his numbers.
* Whiteside's knee soreness has kept him out of the entire month of December, but he is expected back as soon as Tuesday night, and thus has started to re-climb the rankings.
* Aldridge's averages have tumbled down to his last-season numbers over the past couple of weeks as the Spurs break Leonard back in.
Center
* Embiid is the most difficult player to rank, because his per-game stats would rank him up near the top 5 but he's a legitimate threat to be shut down for the season at any time. How does one evaluate that? Thus, he's top 15 here but could really slot anywhere from 5 to 35 without shame.
* Nikola Jokic had slid a few slots when dealing with an ankle injury, as he doesn't have a history of big-minute durability, but he's back and producing so he earns a boost.
* Rudy Gobert slides not just because of his current injury, but because with two long-term injuries already this season he's now characterized as an injury risk moving forward.
Here is the full list of the updated Top 150: