Each Monday this season, I'll tip the week off by positing five key fantasy basketball questions to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy hoops experts, thus "The Starting Five."
This week's contributors are ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton, ESPN Fantasy analyst John Cregan and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
1. At this point, your dictionary and thesaurus are of no use in describing the play of Stephen Curry. Health aside, the only thing that could slow him down in fantasy leagues would be coach Steve Kerr sitting him out of games to rest down the stretch. How much of a concern should that be to his owners?
Cregan: Little to no concern. Any time the words "Steph Curry" and "ankle" are combined in a sentence, it has a historically chilling effect. In a normal repeat championship run, the impetus would be to rest your stars before the playoffs. And in the best Popovichian tradition, Kerr did pull his starters on occasion last season. But the Golden State Warriors -- and Curry -- are rewriting NBA history this season. With the single-season record for wins in sight, it's hard to conceive Kerr taking his foot off the gas. At the most, I could see the coach giving Curry a night or two off on the road, nothing more.
Pelton: Well, another fluke play like Russell Westbrook landing on Curry's ankle could slow him down, too. That's part of why resting is a possibility! But I think Kerr is more likely to reduce Curry's minutes instead of sitting him entirely. That was the case last season, when the Warriors had long clinched the top spot in the West -- and didn't have history to play for during the regular season. So I'd be surprised if Curry sat out more than one or two entire games.
Carpenter: Not only are the Warriors chasing that 72-win mark, which should give them motivation to play their starters, but they have a friendly schedule down the stretch. Only seven of their remaining 24 games are on the road, and they have just one back-to-back set over the final two weeks of the season -- April 9-10. Plus, the second of those games comes against the San Antonio Spurs, who may well be resting their starters. I think it is more likely that Kerr scales Curry's minutes back down to the low 30s (34.6 minutes per game in February), if possible, while putting him out there for every game until they lock up the record and the top seed.
2. Joe Johnson signed with the Miami Heat as a free agent and scored 12 points in his debut with them on Sunday. What are your expectations for him the rest of the season?
Cregan: Even if he remains a starter (he started yesterday against the New York Knicks), I don't see Johnson getting near the 34.8 MPG he averaged in Brooklyn. Given the Heat's relative depth at the wing, 28-32 MPG would be a more reasonable expectation. As a starter, he should be, at best, a third-to-fourth option. I can see him maintaining his 1.5 3-pointers a night, but anticipate a 10-20 percent drop in the other volume-based categories.
Pelton: His debut is probably a reasonable template. Johnson's role figures to be a little smaller in Miami than it was in Brooklyn, but his efficiency should be somewhat better with higher-value 3-point looks. So about 12 points per game is fairly reasonable, along with at least one 3-pointer per game.
Carpenter: His role will inevitably shrink to some extent in his new digs, because there are better weapons available. However, so long as Chris Bosh remains out of action, Johnson should get enough touches and shots off in order to maintain a decent level of fantasy value going forward. Keep in mind that he has averaged 48.5 field goal percentage and 45.6 3-point percentage since the start of the new year and should have better looks on this team. He should be a nice source of 3s going forward, possibly pushing up on a couple per game.
3. Which Brooklyn Nets player(s) will benefit the most from the departure of Joe Johnson?
Cregan: Brooklyn is a zero-expectations situation. It's a good environment for a less-heralded player to land on the fantasy radar in time for the fantasy playoffs. But with the remaining talent on hand, it's hard to decide which wing could become a factor. I was somewhat high on Bojan Bogdanovic headed into the season. But he has been maddeningly inconsistent, and even when he's on, he provides little more than points and 3s. Wayne Elllington is a solid contributor, but has little upside. The one player who excites me here is Markel Brown. He's an inconsistent shooter, but has elite steals potential. On the nights in which his 3-pointer is falling, he becomes valuable in medium-to-deep leagues.
Pelton: The answer here depends on the return of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. For now, players like Brown and Sergey Karasev are getting more minutes on the wing. But if and when Hollis-Jefferson returns to the lineup, he'll almost certainly regain those minutes, and the Nets' rotation could look a lot like it did with Johnson on the roster. A healthy Hollis-Jefferson is probably the only player in this group worth having on your team.
Carpenter: Well, I pushed Bogdanovic as a sleeper before the season, but he never really woke up and I don't expect him to suddenly bust loose now -- despite an opportunity to do so. Keep an eye on Brown and Ellington to see if they can get comfortable. If you have a deep bench, you can stash Hollis-Jefferson to see if he returns in the coming weeks, but otherwise, I would only look to the Nets' backcourt in DFS games when the matchup is right on a given night.
4. Alex Len racked up 22 points and 16 boards Saturday while starting next to Tyson Chandler. What are your expectations for the young big man the rest of the way?
Cregan: I'm bullish on Len. If he and Tyson Chandler continue to mesh, Len's path to 25-28 MPG is clear. That should be enough for something along the lines of 15 points, 10 rebounds, a block and a steal per game.
Pelton: Len's two highest-scoring games of the season have come since the All-Star break, so perhaps he has turned a corner -- having a real point guard to set him up in Ronnie Price, along with backup Phil Pressey, has to help. At the same time, we've seen Len have these kind of stretches before and they always seem to be followed by some kind of setback, whether in health or consistency. Len's worth buying low but not worth counting on for the remainder of the season.
Carpenter: We've been waiting for Len to get a big enough role, and it appears that the combination of trades, injuries and desire to attain lottery balls has finally opened the door for Len to make some noise. We already knew he could rebound, but the key to his fantasy potential is that he has taken double-digit shots in four straight games. I expect him to be a legit double-double threat who can score in the teens the rest of the way. He is available in nearly three-quarters of all ESPN leagues. Go get him.
5. Danilo Gallinari said he expects to miss 3-4 weeks, though an official timeline won't be known until he has an MRI. Which Denver Nuggets player(s) will benefit the most while Gallo is sidelined?
Cregan: Will Barton and Gary Harris are the obvious beneficiaries. But keep an eye on Darrell Arthur in deeper leagues. Arthur flashed some potential in a limited role in Memphis, and he's building some faint momentum in Denver. Since becoming a Nugget, he has also added a 3-point shot. I don't see him breaking out, but there's some real deep-league potential here.
Pelton: Barton has been slumping a bit since the All-Star break, shooting 34.2 percent from the field, but the Nuggets are going to need his offense without Gallinari's shot creation. The shooting guard played 43 minutes in Friday's overtime loss at Dallas, and while that's not realistic on a regular basis, I'd expect Barton's minutes to get a nice boost along with his usage rate -- whether or not he starts.
Carpenter: This is Barton's chance to shine, and expect him to make an impact as a scorer and as a quality rebounder from the wing. Harris will be worth a look, too. Another player who may benefit to some extent is Kenneth Faried. Gallo has averaged 9.5 free throw attempts since the start of the new year, and Faried could pick up some of that action, not necessarily at the stripe, but in the lane.