I always enjoy how Halloween comes right around the start of the fantasy hoops season. It seem so apropos, considering how early-season box scores are filled with tricks or treats, depending on just how much you invested in a player.
It is difficult to avoid panicking when your studs start off slowly and equally difficult to not get overly excited about a little two- or three-game outburst by a player about whom you were skeptical during the preseason.
Most studs will come through eventually, so don't sweat that angle yet. Assessing the value of players who may be exceeding expectations thus far -- like Karl-Anthony Towns, Jrue Holiday, Willie Cauley-Stein and Al-Farouq Aminu -- is much more complicated.
Don't worry; I have the answers for you.
Each Monday this season, I'll tip the week off by positing and seeking answers to five key questions, thus "The Starting Five."
This week's contributors are ESPN Fantasy basketball analysts Joe Kaiser, Jim McCormick and yours truly.
1. Rookie Karl-Anthony Towns exploded out of the gate with 14 points and 12 rebounds against the Los Angeles Lakers in his NBA debut and 28 points, 14 boards and four blocks against the Denver Nuggets in his next outing. He also sports a 58.6 FG% (14.5 FGA) and 88.9 FT% (4.5 FTA). Was this a fluky start against weak frontcourts or a taste of what's to come the rest of the season?
Kaiser: What it shows is that the rookie can dominate against poor teams or teams with below-average frontcourts. I wouldn't expect Towns to post these type of numbers when he has to face a Marc Gasol or Andrew Bogut or Tyson Chandler -- one of the really good defensive centers in the league. But I'd get ready for plenty of double-doubles and monster games from the big man over the course of the season. He's already 2-for-2 in that department, and he has proved to be an instant impact guy.
McCormick: It's hard not to be bullish on this otherworldly talent, as we simply don't see such young and entirely athletic players prove so polished. While Towns' numbers are admittedly inflated by a soft early slate, it's pretty clear he won't be restricted from reaching high offensive usage as he was in Kentucky's tight rotation. For a bit of fun from ESPN's Marc Stein, we learn Kevin Garnett's first double-digit scoring game in the NBA came in his sixth game on Nov. 15, 1995, or the same day Towns was born. This kid is already well ahead of where Garnett was at that stage, and he should be considered a mid-round steal in redraft formats and a DFS steal as long as his pricing is still so modest.
Carpenter: There is a mighty long list of players who have played well for a handful of early-season games, taking advantage of unsettled rotations and the randomness of any brief stretch of contests, only to fade away for the long haul. Towns won't be one of them. He is this good, and that's why I recommended reaching for him in drafts and why I overpaid to secure him in a recent keeper auction. The last teenager to rack up 28 points and 14 rebounds was LeBron James, and being in that company is not a coincidence. With an NBA-ready body and huge usage rate ahead of him, Towns is going to be a beast all season long.
2. Jrue Holiday's average draft position was 98th, presumably due to his lack of durability and expected cap of 15-to-20 minutes per game early this season. Yet after skipping Tuesday's opener, he played 21 minutes Wednesday and 27 minutes Saturday, when he chipped in 22 points and six assists. Now, coach Alvin Gentry said Holiday can play 25 minutes per game. What are your expectations for Holiday going forward?
Kaiser: I remain very leery of Holiday, as he and the rest of the Pelicans remain the most injury-plagued team in the NBA. He's going to have to show that his legs can hold up for a good month or so before I feel decently confident that he is back to 100 percent and someone to count on for the remainder of the season. When healthy, he's a top-50 guy and a high-percentage shooter from the point guard position.
McCormick: Guarded optimism for this guard is the angle I'm taking. A litany of leg and ankle issues have plagued his time in New Orleans, but as a longtime Sixers fan (sigh), I saw Holiday at his best on a regular basis early in his career, and he's recently showing some flashes of the playmaking that made him a young All-Star. I would want to get short-term shares of Holiday in daily competition given low pricing and the statistical spikes we're witnessing as he trends back to becoming a full-time NBA point guard. In terms of his rest-of-season stock in redraft competition, I would honestly begin to market Holiday if he continues to ascend in the coming weeks, as the disconcerting injury history would have be second-guessing his enduring value over the demanding and grueling NBA marathon. Plus, once Tyreke Evans is back in the mix in a few months, multiple ball-dominant guards will likely deflate individual numbers.
Carpenter: It's really a shame that Holiday's body hasn't cooperated during his tenure with the Pelicans, because he can really stuff the box score when healthy. And working with Anthony Davis makes his upside scary. As I noted last week, I'm all for trading for talented players who are working their way back from injuries -- including Holiday -- for the right price. However, I also would happily trade an injury-prone player like Holiday if he gets hot and I get a good offer. Ideally, you would secure Holiday on the cheap now and deal him away when he hits his stride -- before he is felled by another injury.
3. Many pegged Willie Cauley-Stein as a project, but he started the Sacramento Kings' past two games and posted lines of 17 points, nine rebounds, three blocks, one steal (vs. LAL) and eight points, nine boards, one block and three steals (at LAC). However, the rookie had five fouls in each of those contests. Do you think he is a viable fantasy option in 10- or 12-team leagues? How much would your assessment change if DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) ends up missing time?
Kaiser: I see Cauley-Stein in much the same way I viewed Nerlens Noel as a rookie last season -- a young, athletic big man who can absolutely stuff the stat sheet. Few people are higher on him than I am, and though Sacramento coach George Karl has often relied on veterans over rookies in his career, I think Cauley-Stein's defensive presence at power forward will force Karl to play him more minutes than Kosta Koufos. If Cousins misses any time, it will increase the amount of time Cauley-Stein gets (provided that he stays out of foul trouble).
McCormick: Please don't talk about Cousins that way; he's going to be perfectly fine, perfect I tell ya! But really, Cauley-Stein might be best served with Cousins in action, as he's afforded freedom to hunt for boards and blocks while defenses gravitate to his superstar peer on the low block. I'm definitely interested in Cauley-Stein in 12-team formats, as accruing blocks and steals is always an important differentiating factor given how scarce these stats prove compared to points, boards and 3-pointers in this space-and-pace era. Such rich early exposure for the rookie is a strong sign he's earned the trust of George Karl, which hasn't always been an easy task for young players in his system. As the team's defensive Swiss Army knife, the arrow is pointing up.
Carpenter: Unlike KAT, I was quite skeptical about WCS coming through early this season, so I am genuinely surprised by his production, especially the near double-double against a strong Clippers' frontcourt. We shouldn't expect double-digit scoring from him regularly, because he is a defensive specialist. However, production in rebounds, blocks and steals largely comes from opportunity, raw talent and effort -- three things Cauley-Stein has in spades right now. Kosta Koufos isn't much competition, so Cauley-Stein could easily earn 25-28 minutes per game early this season. He would have even more opportunity if Cousins ends up sidelined, but I actually prefer the idea of Cauley-Stein playing off of Boogie, who draws so much attention on both ends of the hardwood. Cauley-Stein is worth adding in all formats just to see what happens.
4. Al-Farouq Aminu was a DFS darling in the playoffs last season, when he averaged 11.2 PPG, 1.4 3-PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.6 BPG and 2.0 SPG against the Houston Rockets. The key was averaging 30 minutes per game during that stretch. He has played at least 30 minutes in each of his first three games with the Portland Trail Blazers and is averaging 13.7 PPG, 1.7 3-PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG and 0.3 SPG. Do you think he can maintain this pace for the long haul?
Kaiser: I do. Like you, I've noticed Aminu's early-season surge and I think he -- more than anyone -- symbolizes the type of player the new-look Trail Blazers are building around: high-energy, high-effort guys who complement the scoring of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Aminu, who has attempted 10 shots per game so far, is the team's third-leading scorer (13.7 PPG) after Lillard and McCollum, and I don't see that changing as the season progresses.
McCormick: The front-page fantasy takeaway from the Blazers' early results clearly focuses on the incredible offensive usage we're seeing from C.J. McCollum, but Aminu is equally impressive in his steady minutes and strong batch of hustle numbers. The void left by LaMarcus Aldridge is undeniable, and I think the glut of middling options in his place left investors wary of buying into the teams' frontcourt. Aminu is already the key beneficiary of the new-look rotation. He might not maintain a 14 and 8 clip throughout, but we'll see plenty of fun and diverse box scores from the Wake Forrest product thanks to a steady diet of minutes. Also, can you imagine him as the energy guy on the Clippers over the past few years? I'm sure their fans can.
Carpenter: I've always been intrigued by Aminu's statistical potential, and he has his best chance as a pro to be a steady fantasy player this season. He is locked into the starting small forward gig and basically guaranteed 30-plus minutes per game, so he should be a viable player to round out your roster with some scoring, boards and hustle stats. The 3-point production is the one part that is tough to buy for the long term. He has knocked down half of his 10 attempts thus far, which simply doesn't jibe with his career 29.2 3-FG%.
5. What is your top piece of advice for fantasy owners now that we are in the nascent days of the 2015-16 season?
Kaiser: Fantasy basketball is closer to fantasy football than it is fantasy baseball in that players' values rapidly change from day-to-day throughout the season, so it's important to have a roster that can take advantage of that whenever an emerging player is available on the waiver wire. Try to leave 2-3 spots on your roster for streaming options (players you can pick up and easily drop, if necessary), a strategy that allows you to field a roster that plays more games than your opponents each week.
McCormick: The best advice is to hunt the waiver wire aggressively early. Guys like Cauley-Stein, Holiday and Aminu crop up and go to the progressive managers. I think far too often we can overvalue commodities we've drafted over what's available in free agency, based almost purely on preseason perceptions. This isn't to say we should turn over large portions of our rosters this early, but to be mindful that a 15th-round pick doesn't necessarily merit much patience, especially as ascending and enduring talents won't always prove so widely available as they do in these early weeks.
Carpenter: Buy low and sell high. If you can trade off players who are off to a hot start and acquire those who have a bumpy beginning, then you are going to improve your roster. I know that's pretty obvious, but this is a great time to do both. Rotations are in flux, coaches are trying to get a feel for their players, some of whom are getting extra minutes while others are being eased in. Plus, there is the "small sample size" factor of there being only a handful of games played. It all adds up to a lot of statistical variance in box scores and opportunity for savvy owners to get ahead of the curve in trades.