Each week in the NBA is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if ... Dennis Schroder sharply declines statistically
Schroder wasn't supposed to average 35.5 ESPN fantasy PPG this season (23rd among point guards), which is why he went undrafted in all four of ESPN Fantasy's preseason mock drafts (two for points formats, two for categories). Schroder, in his 12th NBA season, has long been a modest fantasy contributor, more like the fellow you add a month into the season when you have injuries, or need 5.0 APG in categories formats. He's been so much more than that for the Nets, but now he is with the Warriors after this past weekend's trade.
It has been more than five years since Schroder was someone fantasy managers coveted, when he averaged 18.9 PPG and placed second in Sixth Man of the Year honors for the 2019-20 Thunder. Schroder started 58 games for last season's terrible Raptors and Nets, averaging a helpful 29.2 ESPN fantasy points. This season, Schroder suddenly became Brooklyn's top fantasy option, averaging 18.4 PPG, 6.6 APG and 33.6 MPG. He was a top-50 fantasy option! The problem for fantasy managers -- yes, there normally is a problem -- is Schroder cannot average close to those numbers for Golden State.
Schroder has started barely half his 790 career games, averaging 16.8 PPG and 6.0 APG when he starts (though much of those stats came long ago), and 11.5 PPG and 3.7 APG when he doesn't. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, the Warriors figure to utilize him off the bench running the offense when star PG Stephen Curry isn't in the game, or when the goal is to create open 3-point shots for Curry. It's all about Curry, you know. Schroder's usage is about to crater. He helps the Warriors at negligible cost, but the big numbers are gone. He may average more like an ordinary 25.0 fantasy PPG from now on. It's still helpful, but not nearly the same.
Don't be surprised if ... Paul George starts hitting expectations
George has been a solid fantasy option for a long time, but since his final season with the Thunder in 2018-19, he has not been a superstar. We hoped things would work out when he was a Clipper, but we couldn't help to notice the many missed games and having to replace George from lineups. Oh, we always roster George, but he would slip outside the top 25 picks and then get snatched up, his new investor knowing there was safe production ahead, but in recent seasons, knowing we were not getting a full season of production.
This season, while the 76ers as a unit deal with ridiculous injuries and missed games, George largely has disappointed in fantasy, even in relation to his sixth-round draft-day value. George averaged 40.8 ESPN fantasy points per game for last season's Clippers, doing so over 74 games, and few could complain. This season, George has suited up only 14 times (out of 24 chances), due to separate left knee hyperextensions, averaging 36.4 fantasy points.
However, George looked spry and more energetic on Monday, free of his bulky knee brace, scoring a season-best 69 fantasy points, with 33 traditional points in 40 minutes, also his most of the season. He and PG/SG Tyrese Maxey took most of the shots, in part because someone has to do so, and the 76ers beat the Hornets. The eight assists were a nice surprise. George saw his assist numbers crater alongside greedy James Harden last season. Now, with Maxey fully on-board to share, George is back to better than 5.0 APG. It should continue.
We have still barely seen the Big Three of C Joel Embiid, George and Maxey coexist for full games, and it may be at least another week until we do so, with Embiid nursing a sinus fracture. Still, who will lead the 76ers in assists? Last season, Maxey averaged 6.2 APG, Embiid 5.6. The offense is running nicely with George directing it, getting Maxey ample open 3-pointers. Embiid may slow things down, but there remain great possibilities here. I wouldn't trade for Embiid as if he is a top 50 fantasy option, not with his history of health issues. Paul George, however, may have a better shot to get there.
Don't be surprised if ... Jimmy Butler remains with the Heat
Butler has been a popular focus of the NBA rumor mill of late, mainly because the Heat do not look like top East contenders, and they may not want to present Butler with the lucrative contract extension he appears to desire. Who knows what the truth is, really? The point is Butler, now 35, is a bit like Paul George in that fantasy managers have been able to count on him for a decade, but nobody builds a roster around him. He is a fine, complementary piece to a fantasy roster and, for the Heat, much more than that in the postseason. In the regular season, he is valuable, but not a top-20 player.
What if that starts to change now that his name is being bandied about in rumors, accurate or not? On Monday, Butler dropped 35 points, 19 rebounds (where did that come from?) and 10 assists on the Pistons, showing a fire we had seen only occasionally this season. That doesn't mean Butler wasn't trying hard, but he is an emotionally motivated player, and we have always seen him able to really raise his game at times, like in May and June. Butler averages 39.7 ESPN fantasy PPG. He scored 96 on Monday, albeit against a poor defense in an overtime game. The Heat lost, too.
Perhaps Butler really wants to stay with the Heat, and a sudden uptick in his numbers -- and team wins -- may serve to earn him the contract offer he desires. Then again, he could end up with the Rockets, Mavericks or Suns in the next days, make a playoff run and still earn his money. From a fantasy angle, we probably want Butler remaining with Miami in a Big Three with C Bam Adebayo and SG/PG Tyler Herro, rather than a complementary piece -- there is that word again -- for a West contender. We saw on Monday what Butler can do with Miami. It may not happen like that for a West contender.
Don't be surprised if ... Mark Williams starts delivering double doubles
Williams is probably known more for his lack of durability issues over his short career rather than any statistics he has provided. The Duke product has missed so many games with back and foot problems, but there are times he looks like a top-10 center -- like recently! Williams averaged 12.7 PPG and 9.7 RPG during his 19 games of the 2023-24 campaign, and then, annoyingly, and with too many "day-to-day" designations, he didn't play again. We don't know if he can stay healthy this season, but 8.8 PPG and 5.0 RPG over only 12.8 MPG is an intriguing first look, and the minutes are only rising.
Hornets backup Nick Richards was one of last season's deep-league surprises, averaging 8.0 RPG when he got the big minutes with Williams out, and he was off to a better start this season. Even now, with diminished time since Williams returned, he's averaging 11.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 1.6 BPG, and the Hornets quickly promoted Williams to the starting lineup ahead of Richards. They know he can defend, and finish lob passes from the stylish LaMelo Ball. Williams can do those things better and he should be a double-double machine.
Williams is averaging only 21.8 ESPN fantasy PPG, but people have noticed, as he is already up to 47% rostered in ESPN leagues. This fellow bears closer watching for sure. We should be positive and hope he can remain on the court, because last season, in limited action, he averaged 31.9 ESPN fantasy PPG. That matters. That is roughly what popular centers Myles Turner, Rudy Gobert, Brook Lopez and -- yes, Embiid! -- have averaged this season. It is hardly too late for a healthy Williams to become a fantasy star.