It seems a bit silly when you look back today, but Spurs C/PF Victor Wembanyama was not a first-round pick in ESPN average live drafts.
The French prodigy, one of only four NBA players averaging at least 20 PPG and 10 RPG, and the league leader in blocked shots by a wide margin, went at No. 15 overall, on average, in the middle of the second round.
As Wembanyama's rookie season nears its historic end, he may finish among the top-10 scorers in ESPN fantasy points formats, averaging nearly 50 ESPN Fantasy points per game. That average notably tops Celtics SF/PF Jayson Tatum, Warriors PG Stephen Curry and Timberwolves SG/SF Anthony Edwards, each a coveted first round selection.
When discussing the biggest takeaways from fantasy basketball during the 2023-24 season, we must begin with the biggest story. Wembanyama was well worth his second-round investment, and we need to consider the teenager among the top picks in the fall 2024-25 drafts. Yes, he was that good, and clearly still improving.
Of course, here we have been evaluating and dissecting Wembanyama all season long, as fans cannot get enough of this incredible prodigy. We knew he would be good. Did we think Wembanyama would participate in more than 70 games, or provide monster numbers in fewer than 30 MPG? Not necessarily. Just wait until the Spurs present him more minutes, provide a better, deeper lineup around him, and Wembanyama becomes more efficient with his shot and handle. Wow.
Anyway, believe it or not, there are other takeaways from this fantasy season!
The top options keep improving
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic led all players averaging 60.3 ESPN fantasy PPG last season, while Mavericks PG Luka Doncic and 76ers C Joel Embiid were the only others better than 53 PPG. This season, Doncic leads at 64.2 fantasy PPG, with Embiid, Jokic, Thunder SG/PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Bucks PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lakers PF/C Anthony Davis close behind. Yes, traditional league scoring is up this season, but the best fantasy options were top benefactors. Leagues still are won by stars, having a top-5 pick is crucial.
The Big Four in Los Angeles stayed healthy
Last season, Lakers Davis and SF/PF LeBron James, along with Clippers SF/PF Kawhi Leonard and SF/SG/PF Paul George averaged 54 games between them, with none of them reaching 60 games. The lack of volume -- and it has been a problem for a long time -- frustrated fantasy managers, and it caused these Hall of Famers to slip in drafts. Volume matters. Perhaps the league controversially enacting its new rule about playing a minimum of 65 games for awards eligibility played a critical role, but each of these players should sail past 65 games this season. Fantasy managers thank them.
And then there is Embiid
However, the defending NBA MVP will not approach 65 games. Embiid hurt his knee in January and may or may not play again this regular season. The latest reports are that he will. Perhaps Embiid was on his way to another MVP award, as he is averaging 35.3 PPG (in only 34 MPG!), along with 11.3 RPG and easily a career best 5.7 APG. He has played in 34 games. While the LA stars found a way to participate more in their 30s, aiding their teams and fantasy managers, Embiid, who recently turned 30, could not. It was already difficult to trust him in drafts, and his future presents more concerns.
His older former teammate can still play, though
SG/PG James Harden began this season unhappy, bitter, sidelined and demanding a trade from Philadelphia, and he got it. His fantasy value was rather tepid this preseason. It took some time, but Harden, 34, proved he can still play. His numbers are down from last season with the 76ers, but he is fifth in the league at 8.5 APG, and he will likely play in 70 games for the first time since the 2018-19 season with the Rockets. Harden got what he wanted, and it worked out for the Clippers and pessimistic fantasy managers.
Another rookie big man shined
Thunder PF/C Chet Holmgren, the No. 2 pick of the 2022 draft who missed Year 1 with a foot injury, wasn't as productive as Wembanyama, but he was terrific as well. Holmgren did not score, rebound and block shots at the level of the Spurs star, but he shot considerably better on field goals and boasts one of the lower turnover rates among starting centers. Efficiency matters. Fantasy managers made Holmgren a fourth-round pick in ESPN ADP, and he certainly returned excellent value, averaging 41.2 ESPN fantasy PPG, a top-30 mark. After the two centers, no other rookies are among the top-100 fantasy scorers, though Hornets SG/SF Brandon Miller is close. (In general, do not trust rookies in fantasy!)
Offseason player movement can be scary
Bucks PG Damian Lillard, Wizards SG/PG Jordan Poole, Celtics C/PF Kristaps Porzingis, Wizards PG Tyus Jones, Rockets PG Fred VanVleet, Bucks PG/SG Jrue Holiday, Blazers C Deandre Ayton, Warriors PG Chris Paul and Jazz PF John Collins were the notable veteran players to switch teams last offseason. Lillard and VanVleet are the ones who will end up among the top-50 fantasy scorers, but, in each case, their traditional scoring numbers plummeted from last season. Harden, traded in November, saw his scoring slip, too. Poole's value cratered. Coincidence or trend? Keep an eye out on this summer's player movement, and act cautiously in drafts.
Injuries stink
Losing a top-30 player for months really hampers a fantasy team. It is not just Embiid. Hawks PG Trae Young (finger) played 51 games. That is still more than Cavaliers SG/PG Donovan Mitchell (nose, knee). Raptors PF/SF Scottie Barnes played 60 games. Hornets PG/SG LaMelo Ball played 22, though we had history on him. Seek durability, hope for the best with others but try to draft depth, not just upside rookies.
Starting games is not everything
Kings SG/SF Malik Monk is among the top 75 fantasy scorers, and he started nary a game this season. Jazz SG Jordan Clarkson and Hawks SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic scored plenty as reserves as well. Bulls C Andre Drummond went undrafted in leagues after a statistically underwhelming first season with Chicago. This season, he is a top-20 rebounder, despite playing 17 MPG. Drummond averaged 17.9 RPG in his 10 starts, but he remained productive off the bench. Not all fantasy providers regularly start games.