San Antonio Spurs C/PF Victor Wembanyama is barely 20 years old, so excuse him for not being the most consistent statistical performer in the league this season. Consistency is seldom expected as a defining characteristic for anyone that age, even someone who appears to be a guaranteed, iconic NBA superstar.
The statistical upside is historic, of course, as we saw Monday night against the Raptors when the 7-foot-4 unicorn became the only player over the past 40 years to combine at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, 10 blocked shots and 5 assists in one game (he had 27-14-10-5).
That mind-boggling outing was worth 92 ESPN fantasy points, or nearly double what Wembanyama averages for the season, and surely is a sign of bigger things to come.
However, Wembanyama scored only 28 ESPN fantasy points in each of his two previous games. He totaled five rebounds and four blocked shots in games against the Nets and Magic. The Nets are not that much better than the Raptors. Who knows why Wembanyama delivered relatively pedestrian performances? He is 20. Perhaps that is why.
What is perhaps most significant about Wembanyama embarrassing the Raptors -- who start their own 7-1, defensive-minded big man in Jakob Poeltl -- is how aggressive he was at each end of the court. On offense, Wembanyama made his intentions clear in the paint.
He wanted the basketball. His field goal attempts were in line with a normal night, but he earned better shots, and he was more accurate. His two offensive rebounds were his first in four games. Wembanyama also went to the free throw line six times, above his average.
The blocked shots (with four of the 10 on Poeltl), of course, were the difference in judging a solid double-double of points and rebounds and something so many NBA fans and fantasy investors have simply never seen before. Were the Raptors not aware this tall Frenchman was swatting everything in sight and kept challenging him? Wembanyama was always going to score and rebound, but if he can block shots like this more often, then there might be no peer for fantasy managers. He just needs to do this more consistently.
Even as a relatively inconsistent teenager, Wembanyama oozes with upside we just have not seen before. Mavericks G Luka Doncic, 76ers C Joel Embiid (we miss ya, buddy!) and Nuggets C Nikola Jokic are the only NBA players averaging better than 60 ESPN fantasy points per game. Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo are close. These players tend to provide the big numbers every game they play. There are few 28-point fantasy games on their ledgers.
Nobody presumes Wembanyama will provide more games in which he approaches 100 fantasy points, because nobody does this regularly.
Doncic scored 117 fantasy points in his 73-traditional-point outing against the Hawks in late January, and he dropped 91 fantasy points on the Knicks last week.
Embiid scored 110 fantasy points when he scored 70 traditional points on Wembanyama in January. Jokic had a 94-point game at Washington a few weeks ago. For the most part, the single-game statistical floor for these fellows is at least 50 fantasy points.
Wembanyama averages 20.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 3.2 BPG and 46.8 ESPN fantasy points (49.7 over the past 30 days), and he turned 20 years old about five weeks ago. He will become more consistent and aggressive in time, and when he matures and the Spurs surround him with greater talent, the mind boggles at what numbers he might provide.
David Robinson, who started his Spurs career when he was 24, routinely averaged 23 PPG, 12 RPG and 3.5 BPG in his early years. Wembanyama is going to do that, perhaps even in the season starting this fall. What if those numbers are only the beginning?
Blocking double-digit shots in one game is surely a rare feat, and being able to do so five times per game is as well. As long as opponents are willing, Wembanyama can do this. He could probably garner as many rebounds as he desires, really, when he is aggressive enough and matures. It is not as if these Spurs have a Dennis Rodman type competing with him. No other Spur averages more than 6.1 RPG! We could start seeing Wembanyama, presumably a heavier version, average 14 RPG soon.
Similarly, scoring traditional points is not going to be a problem. Wembanyama is close to unstoppable in the paint, and when the players around him are better, that will only aid the Frenchman. Give him a better point guard and long-range shooters, a bruising power forward to allow him to roam on defense, and Wembanyama will score points at will. There is little preventing him from going to the free throw line far more often -- how about 10 times per game? -- and he already makes better than 81%. He is an erratic 3-point shooter at 31%, but that number is on the rise (46.2% in February).
Frankly, we should see 30 PPG and 60 ESPN fantasy points on a regular basis.
The other number to watch, and again, this will improve in time, is the turnovers. Wembanyama can be a bit careless with the ball, and he committed seven turnovers in the rout over the Raptors. He averages 3.5 TPG, and the only players with a higher total are point guards with higher usage (Doncic, Trae Young, Cade Cunningham). Jokic averages 3 TPG. Wembanyama wants to create plays for himself and others because he knows he can run an offense, and he can surely lower his turnovers, too.
Put simply, there is a pathway for Wembanyama to become the best player in fantasy basketball, and quite soon, and we have seen this template lately. When Wembanyama matures and shows more consistency, watch out. We have seen the 10-block game. We have seen him more aggressive, at times, on the offensive boards. His 3-point shooting is becoming a positive aspect of his game. The minutes will be kept in check the rest of this season, but perhaps not in the fall.
Could he already be the best fantasy option as soon as this fall, in his age-20 season? Perhaps that is optimistic, but the top five surely beckons. Now that would be quite historic, too.