The surprising Minnesota Timberwolves entered Tuesday with the NBA's best record at 15-4, and as the narrative goes, a big reason for the team's success is the happy, statistically rejuvenated PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns.
After all, a strained calf muscle forced Towns to miss four months of games last season, with the acquisition of C Rudy Gobert likely explaining some of his modest drop in production, notably in points, rebounds and blocks. Fantasy basketball managers certainly noticed.
These days, everyone seems to love Towns, as he not only came at quite a draft-day fantasy discount from his earlier, top-10 prime, but he appears firmly back to rocking among the top fantasy options, averaging a cool 40.1 ESPN fantasy points per game.
The problem with this narrative, of course, is that Towns averaged 39.1 fantasy points per game during his truncated 2022-23 campaign. Sure, he's a bit better now, but not that much. One might even say he really wasn't so bad last season... and also that he's not back to being a top-10 fantasy option.
How to evaluate this version of Towns
Availability and production often go hand-in-hand, and Towns used to be a clear first-round pick in fantasy basketball leagues for both of those reasons. Perhaps it is time to re-think his place in our game. Oh, Towns is still a terrific player, averaging 22.2 PPG, 9 RPG, 2.2 3PG and shooting wonderfully, but he used to do so much more.
Now 28 years old, the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NBA draft did not miss a game during his first three seasons. He averaged double-digit rebounds each of his first six seasons, and he scored better than 24.5 PPG in five seasons. Towns was a fantasy superstar, a contender for the top pick several seasons, though it should be pointed out that the Timberwolves never won a thing in the playoffs.
This version of Towns entered Tuesday at No. 24 in ESPN fantasy points and No. 33 on a per-game basis, and he hasn't missed a game. This version remains plenty valuable, but those longing for the old days should perhaps reassess the situation.
Towns is neither among the top-10 traditional scorers nor the elite rebounders. Timberwolves SG/SF Anthony Edwards scores more fantasy points on a per-game basis, enjoying far more shots and top-10 league usage. Gobert doesn't share many rebounds. Towns averaged a career-best 4.8 APG last season, but now that number is down to 3.1 APG, his lowest in seven seasons.
By the way, the Timberwolves are winning, so who are we to question anything?
Resetting expectations
Still, while we can all dream of Towns returning to prior statistical heights, we can agree on one thing: Last season, when he played in only eight games after the start of December, missing nearly four months with a right calf strain, was mighty frustrating.
The injury was not supposed to cost Towns that much time. It forced fantasy managers to look at Towns differently. After all, he is off to a pristine start in the games category this season, but Towns has played in more than 50 games in only one of the past four seasons.
The Timberwolves rank fourth in the NBA in points per game differential, second in the West to the Thunder, and Towns plays a big part, even if he is no longer piling on the points and rebounds how he used to, or even the assists from last season. Then again, there is plenty of time for Towns to increase his numbers.
Towns entered Tuesday with double-doubles for points-rebounds in four of his past six games. He attempted 23 and 22 field goals in those past two games, after attempting that many shots only twice in the first 17 games. He has been more aggressive on offense recently, and especially on the offensive boards.
Towns once averaged 3.6 offensive rebounds over a full season. He entered Tuesday with a total of 21 offensive rebounds in 19 games, but seven of those came over his past two contests. Perhaps this trend will continue as well. Towns is certainly capable of scoring and rebounding more. He is healthy, hitting 41.8% on 3-pointers and a career-high 91.1% from the free throw line.
Then again, Towns has also made it clear he wants to contend for the NBA championship. He has yet to even win a playoff series, but these Timberwolves, with Edwards and PG Mike Conley directing the offense, Gobert manning the middle and role players such as C/PF Naz Reid and SF/PF Kyle Anderson thriving and adding proper depth, are better than what Towns had around him five seasons ago.
Final thoughts
The franchise hasn't won more than 47 games in a season since the Kevin Garnett days 20 years ago. This team, with Towns playing less of a superstar role, at least statistically, is playing at a 60-win pace.
Ultimately, fantasy managers investing in Towns may have hoped for a return to his top-10 fantasy numbers, but this version works nicely. Towns played in only 29 games last season. We needed a return to durability, and his statistics are excellent, just not quite as dominating as they used to be. That is OK.
Towns remains a fantasy building block, and as long as he stays healthy, it seems like more than a fair trade to give up some of the numbers from his youth for durability. Let's hope we get both for the duration of the season.