San Antonio Spurs rookie C Victor Wembanyama may end up the generational player everyone expects him to be, clearly worthy of the No. 1 pick in the recent NBA draft.
Wembanyama, who doesn't turn 20 until January, has proven in NBA preseason action that even against top competition he is far from overwhelmed, certainly able to score, rebound and block shots, handle the ball and dish like a guard, defend just about anyone and show excellent court awareness.
Fantasy basketball managers can't wait to get this special player teeming with upside. After all, is there anything not to like here?
Well, perhaps there is one rather important thing. Hype is a powerful force, and not so coincidentally it now takes a second round pick to secure Wembanyama.
That means, if you want to get this next great NBA talent, one has to invest in him ahead of Sacramento Kings PG De'Aaron Fox (he finished 12th in points league scoring last season), Toronto Raptors PF/C Pascal Siakam (14th) and Chicago Bulls SF/SG DeMar DeRozan (15th), among myriad others who have proven themselves at the highest level statistically for years.
Everyone loves the rookies because they have yet to struggle, but value matters in fantasy drafts.
This is not to say that the massively hyped Wembanyama is going to fail. On the contrary, it seems quite likely he will be great. Many compare him to future Hall of Famer LeBron James, who was fantastic in his first NBA season 20 years ago, averaging 20.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 5.9 APG. James ended up worthy of his top-20 selection in fantasy drafts that season, but James is also the NBA's all-time leading scorer now, an historical unicorn to some degree.
Presuming Wenbanyama delivers so much initial statistical success just because James did so is quite a leap.
The most obvious fantasy category that the 7-foot-3 Wembanyama should dominate in is blocked shots. Wembanyama features strong defensive instincts and ridiculous length, and his arms are so long that he will affect many shots in the paint, even with little effort. We should harbor no worries about Wembanyama blocking multiple shots per game.
Utah Jazz rookie Walker Kessler, not nearly the offensive talent Wembanyama is but certainly heavier, stronger and more physical, averaged 2.3 BPG (and 8.4 RPG) as a rookie last season. Blocked shots impact more in category leagues than points formats, but they still matter, and Wembanyama should thrive there.
Whether the slim Wembanyama is an initial, consistent offensive force is another issue, and this is where we should rein in expectations, at least to some degree. The Spurs seem unlikely to contend for an NBA championship this season, but there are pieces in place to lessen the rookie's initial responsibilities on offense and on defense, and we should look for coach Gregg Popovich to do precisely that.
For example, SF Keldon Johnson and SF/SG Devin Vassell averaged more than 40 PPG between them last season. We can quibble about their contributions in other fantasy categories and their overall fantasy impact, but they score. PG/PF Jeremy Sochan and SG Malaki Branham offer upside, and PG Tre Jones can direct the offense, though it appears that will come from the bench.
Sochan will start games as a hybrid point-forward, giving the team another bigger body to defend and rebound. C/PF Zach Collins starts at center. He is physical and capable of defending heavy centers, and he should average at least seven or eight rebounds per game. This team's defense should be fantastic.
We should applaud what Popovich is doing here, though it may reduce Wembanyama's initial impact statistically. The teenager doesn't have to score 20 PPG or procure double-digit rebounds every night, and he may find it difficult to do so with others handling the bulk of the scoring.
Also, do not assume Wembanyama plays in more than 70 games, which would be far more than he has ever done in a season. The Spurs are not rushing this. Fantasy managers, however, may be.
I admit it is tough to avoid clicking on Wembanyama's name in ESPN drafts, since there is a proverbial world of upside here, but there is much uncertainty and some risk, too. Don't click on his name just because you need to have the next big NBA thing. Consider the players you are passing on, too.
We can't really say there is risk with Fox, Siakam and DeRozan, nor with New York Knicks PF Julius Randle, Bulls C Nikola Vucevic or Miami Heat stalwarts SF/PF Jimmy Butler and C Bam Adebayo. Knicks PG Jalen Brunson averaged 24 PPG and 6.2 APG, and he is going after Wembenyama.
Memphis Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr., arguably the top defensive player in the league, after averaging 3 BPG and 1 SPG per game, goes later. Do we really think Wembanyama statistically outperforms all these players in his first season?
ESPN Fantasy projects Wembanyama to deliver 19.9 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.4 BPG and strong shooting percentages. Only time will tell if those numbers are realistic or not, but I think we must be more cautious about his scoring and rebounding.
While preseason games are far from predictive, Wembanyama has 15 rebounds over three exhibition contests, and committed 10 turnovers versus five assists. He has also attempted 15 3-pointers, hitting five of them, and if this continues, it affects his field goal shooting.
Wembanyama is versatile, and a blast to watch, but we must acknowledge the potential for inefficiency and struggles, too.
Fantasy managers cannot draft with their hearts. We know what Siakam and DeRozan and Brunson can do. We've seen it. With Wembanyama, we have not. The third or fourth round of drafts seems more realistic. Only time will tell.