Philadelphia 76ers PG James Harden and Milwaukee Bucks PG Damian Lillard enjoy myriad things in common as two of the most prolific guards in NBA history, each clearly on his way to future Hall of Fame induction.
In addition, and not as positively, each player made headlines this summer stating their unhappiness with their current teams, and they demanded trades. Lillard got his wish, the signature player in Wednesday's stunning three-team deal that sent him from the Portland Trail Blazers to the Bucks.
Harden, however, remains with the 76ers, and he is not too happy about it.
In fact, Harden, 34, seems likely to miss the start of the season and perhaps a considerable amount of it while he awaits his own trade. After all, Harden has a history in this respect, forcing his way out of Houston and Brooklyn in recent seasons. He expects to be traded, but his situation is different than what Lillard dealt with in Portland, with far less acrimony. The non-contending Blazers wanted to help Lillard. The contending 76ers may not feel the same way.
While Lillard starred last season, Harden is not nearly the same player he used to be when he was winning league scoring titles and carrying fantasy teams. He still averaged 21 PPG and 10.7 APG in his age-33 campaign last season, along with 6.1 RPG and 2.8 3PG, but his usage was down, and he struggled to finish at the hoop, and in earning trips to the foul line.
Lillard, playing in 58 games, finished No. 6 on ESPN's Player Rater, 17th in points formats. Harden, also over 58 games, finished No. 26 on the Rater, and 28th in points formats.
Harden is angry. He is bitter. We should believe him when he says he will not play for Philadelphia again. This feels like the Ben Simmons saga, years later, and fantasy managers should want no part of it. Fantasy drafts are about value and there is a clear risk/reward aspect in the early rounds. The Do Not draft list focuses on value.
Harden in the second round is way too much risk based on the current situation. The 76ers are under no obligation to placate him with a trade. This ugly situation may continue into the calendar year 2024. Avoid it if you can.
Others on the Do Not Draft list (In ADP order)
LeBron James, SF, Los Angeles Lakers: All the numbers were there except for one. James played in 55 games. The year prior, he played in 56 games. James turns 39 in late-December, so it is quite understandable that, after 20 NBA seasons and more than 1,700 games between the regular season and playoffs, the league's all-time leading scorer would miss more games than most. How many games is enough for you in fantasy? James was not Lillard or Harden, though. He was the No. 50 option on the Player Rater, though 31st in points formats. Regardless, he should not be going ninth overall in ESPN ADP. Don't do it, and be careful of his talented but brittle teammate PF Anthony Davis, too.
Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans: While James is known as The King, Zion is the king of missing games, at least for the four seasons of his underwhelming NBA career. Williamson has played in 114 games of the team's 308 contests in four seasons. While we hope this trend ends this season, there is little evidence it will, and Williamson is also not like James statistically. Williamson seems capable of higher scoring output, but he is not much of a 3-point option, and not a great free throw shooter. His 7 RPG are hardly special. As always, it comes down to investment price. The fourth round feels too early, especially with long-time consistent options such as Chicago Bulls C Nikola Vucevic, Miami Heat C Bam Adebayo and New York Knicks PF Julius Randle going in the same round.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, LA Clippers: Leonard, 32, is no doubt a skilled and winning player, but Leonard last played more than 60 games in a season in 2016-17. Again, there is little evidence that changes this season, even with the league paying more attention to stars and load management. Leonard has also seen his scoring output fall in consecutive seasons, and he averaged only 3.9 APG and 1.4 SPG last season, below expected results. Name value should not be a factor in drafts. Leonard is going in Round 4. Plenty of durable players offer similar production later on. While we're talking Clippers, be careful of SF Paul George, too.
Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies: Speaking of name value, Morant is one of the higher-profile players in the sport, and he averaged 26.2 PPG last season, down slightly from the year prior. His problem is a 25-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the league, and if you believe Morant is going to play in every game after he makes his season debut, think again. Morant scores and accumulates assists, but he finished an astonishing No. 81 on last season's Player Rater (but 36th in points formats) because he is neither a good 3-point shooter, nor notable in steals and free throw shooting.
Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors: Thompson, 33, hit a career-best 4.4 3PG, but he is mostly a hollow scorer for fantasy purposes, contributing little in rebounds, assists and steals. Fantasy managers have room for scorers that hit 3-pointers, but not as early as the sixth round. As for his teammates PG Chris Paul and PF Draymond Green, they warrant attention on this list as well. Paul, 38, is going to struggle to score and pile on the assists on his new team, especially if he is not among the starters. Green, 33, comes off a solid season, averaging 8.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 6.8 APG over 73 games, but he may find it tough to repeat those numbers with a healthy SF Andrew Wiggins and Paul encroaching on running the Stephen Curry-led offense.