The consensus said that New York Knicks PF Julius Randle wasn't going to be a top-25 fantasy option this season because he followed up his magnificent 2020-21 campaign (24.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 6 APG) with an ordinary one. The consensus can be, and often is, quite mistaken.
Sure, Randle was not quite as statistically dominant last season (20.1 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 5.1 APG), but those numbers sure worked for my teams! How about yours? What did we expect this season? Probably something in between. It's a cop-out answer, but fair in this case. What are we getting? Well, it's another monster season!
Randle buried eight 3-pointers -- five in the first quarter -- and scored 36 points in Tuesday's win over the Cavaliers, and I couldn't help but laugh at how so many still perceive him negatively. Knicks fans should love Randle, right?
Perhaps they moan whenever he fires up an ill-advised 3-pointer because the variance on that shot is so great. When Randle was on the Lakers, he had no outside shot. His first season with the Knicks wasn't any better. He shot 27%. He shot 41% from range in his breakout season, and last year, he was bad again at 30%. This is not a consistent shooter, from year to year, game to game, even possession to possession.
Randle has evolved a bit this season because he had to. Heralded PG Jalen Brunson now runs the offense and accrues more assists, but Randle has adapted well. In January, nobody plays more minutes (38 MPG) or has more boards (14.5 RPG) and while his scoring output tends to remain dependent on whether his 3-pointers fall that night, Randle averages nearly 50 fantasy points per game in January.
He struggled in October and November but he's not struggling now. He's carrying fantasy rosters. Randle had a 77-point fantasy game last week and a pair of 50-point efforts this week.
When I watch the Knicks these days, I marvel at how smart and adaptable a basketball player Randle is. Remember, so many viewed the No. 7 pick in the 2014 draft as a lottery bust. He's wide and strong but only 6-foot-8, so clearly not a center, but he wasn't much of a shooter, either. Then he improved at everything.
Back in 2021, only nine players had more rebounds, only 11 players had more assists. This season, he's back to scoring and rebounding more, because the team -- lacking scoring depth -- needs it. Randle has never gotten to the free throw line more. His turnover rate is way down. Randle needs to be more appreciated. This is a top-25 player, and not just for fantasy.
Meanwhile, Brunson is doing precisely what he was supposed to do, scoring, passing and leading. Still, watch the Knicks and it is hard to believe this duo doesn't get more help.
Swingman RJ Barrett scores his 20.2 PPG, but he is such a hollow fantasy option. He is No. 156 on the ESPN Player Rater, though he cracks the 100 in points leagues thanks to the minutes and volume. C Mitchell Robinson hasn't developed, and he cannot stay on the court. PG Immanuel Quickley keeps regressing as a 3-point option. PF Obi Toppin can dunk.
Randle can do only so much but I think it's fair to say he is hardly a disappointment for the Knicks and fantasy managers. This season's stats and efficiency may not end up at quite the level of his breakout season, but it's really close, and there's little reason for concern in future seasons, too. The Knicks must get Randle and Brunson more help.
Other random thoughts
--My take on the Rui Hachimura trade to the Los Angeles Lakers is simple and boring: Add him in deeper fantasy leagues and see what happens. For upside statistical purposes, Hachimura may remind me a bit of Philadelphia 76ers forward Tobias Harris. He's big enough and talented enough to assert himself more offensively in the mid-range, and could provide 16 PPG and 6 RPG, even next to LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Hachimura is not a good 3-point shooter, not yet, and an indifferent defender, but he has to realize how critical these next few months are for his NBA future. He's got his change of scenery and wonderful opportunity. I think 16 and 6 with good shooting is possible.
--My take on Orlando Magic SF/PG Jonathan Isaac is cautiously optimistic: This can be a fantastic fantasy option and I hope his knees allow it. Isaac missed two full seasons. You know how we all love Memphis Grizzlies PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr.? Isaac can block shots, get steals, hit 3-pointers, too. He can be a superstar, too. Orlando will likely handle him with utmost care these next few months, especially since there will be no playoff run, so fantasy managers in redraft formats should keep expectations in some check, but for next season, this really could be a top-50 fantasy option.
--As a pleasantly surprised Mason Plumlee investor this season, I realize the Charlotte Hornets really should trade the veteran and get something before his contract runs out, but can I hope it doesn't happen for fantasy purposes? How is this journeyman Plumlee, now 32, suddenly averaging 16.8 PPG and 11.3 RPG -- on 75% FG! -- in January? He averaged 6.5 PPG last season! The Hornets should move him and see what rookie Mark Williams can do with those minutes, and I've invested in Williams as well, but I just cannot imagine Plumlee producing these numbers for a contender. I am quite conflicted.
--Phoenix Suns coach Monty Williams played PG Chris Paul 38 minutes in his return to the lineup, mostly by necessity, but he looked gassed by the end of that win over the Grizzlies. If I had Paul on a fantasy team, I would seek a trade quickly. He's 37, but he's not LeBron James. Paul has had two long injury absences this season and struggled to score and shoot well when he has been active. He'll get his assists, but everything else is in question. Hey, I am a fan, but this is a risky fantasy investment.
--I know you don't want to read about Miami Heat SG Max Strus, but can I vent for a minute? He averaged 17.2 PPG in November, and shot well enough, so we know he can contribute. He had a recent stretch with big minutes, by team necessity since everyone else seems hurt most of the time -- I have had enough of Kyle Lowry, sadly -- and he did well. Strus fires away from range and he scored 22 points in one game. Had 10 rebounds in another, and shockingly, had 10 assists in another. Where did this come from? And then he scored nary a point in consecutive games, missing all 10 shots. I gave up. There's no consistency! Watch him have a big week soon and drive me mad again!