Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray drained three 3-pointers in Sunday's rather stunning loss to the winless Los Angeles Lakers, and while this shouldn't be too shocking since it used to happen regularly, it was the first time he did so this young season.
Murray has looked a bit rusty so far, and understandably so, but he scored a season-high 21 points on a season-best 21 field goal attempts Sunday. Remember, Murray missed all of last season recovering from an ACL tear. He averaged 21.2 PPG, 4.8 APG and 2.7 3-pointers during the 2020-21 campaign. Are we all just assuming we get that again? Hmmm.
I couldn't help but notice Murray is rostered in fewer ESPN standard leagues this week than he was last week (but still at a strong 88.7%), a sure sign of fantasy impatience for someone who used to be a fantasy staple and was a sixth-round selection in ESPN ADP this season. (I spend too much time eyeing the added/dropped list for clues of how impatient people think. I must stop this.)
The obvious advice is it is silly to give up on Murray in any fantasy league, but it also seems a tad unrealistic (more than a tad?) to expect 21.2 PPG and the other great statistics at quite that level, too.
After all, superstar C Nikola Jokic went from being a great NBA player to the best in fantasy during Murray's most recent season, and he has earned the past two league MVP awards. Murray played in only 48 games in 2020-21, missing the final month after tearing the knee. Jokic had been dominant all season, really, but he took things to an even greater, perhaps unsustainable level last season.
Murray is clearly returning to a different situation. Jokic is definitely better. Michael Porter Jr. is healthy. Aaron Gordon needs shots. Bones Hyland is a legitimate bench scorer and passer. But mostly, Jokic is better.
Murray was always more of a shooting guard from a fantasy sense than true point guard, for he has never averaged 5 APG in a season, nor piled on the steals. I used to avoid him when coveting assists options because, well, he's not a big assists option. Jokic sure is. Murray contributed five assists in the loss to LeBron James and pals, giving him three games this season with five or more, and three other games with exactly one assist. Well, that's not going to work for us. He's averaging 3.2 APG. Nope, not good enough, but this inconsistency may continue.
We should assume Murray will improve as a shooter soon. After all, prior to two weeks ago, he hadn't played in an NBA game since April 12, 2021. It takes time. Murray should get plenty of open looks, thanks to Jokic, and he will become more aggressive when comfortable. Still, Murray has taken only nine free throws in six games, less than half of his previous annual output but, again, give him some time. He's hit 87.5% of his free throws for his career. He's currently at 55%. C'mon.
However, asking Murray to average 20 PPG in this offense, with Jokic, Porter, Gordon, Hyland, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown all scoring double-digits, is too much. Jokic is off to a relatively slow scoring start as well, attributable to the team's depth; he's gone from 17.7 field goal attempts to 12.4. Way too passive and unlikely to continue after what was, I'm sorry, a bad loss to a dysfunctional Lakers team. There were long periods of that loss in which Jokic just didn't shoot. The Nuggets can't have that and probably won't moving forward. Murray may lose shots.
Unfortunately, I think Murray settles in around 16-17 PPG, and fewer than 4 APG per night, as Hyland has a handle and gets to use it to run things when Jokic sits. Murray is obviously worth fantasy attention even if this is his worst statistical season since he was 20 back in 2017-18 (16.7 PPG, 3.4 APG), but this is reality. He may not have been worth that sixth-round pick, in retrospect, but he has value. Reconsider trading for him and expecting numbers from the past but keep him rostered.
Other random thoughts
--Checking out the most dropped list (OK, perhaps I will stop doing this next week), I totally get why Utah Jazz PG/SG Collin Sexton is there. Fantasy managers have overrated him for years. What did you expect from him? If we're talking about Murray not supplying enough assists, look at Sexton! He's not a point guard, but his minutes are up the past few games as he recovers from his own knee injury and, in time, he should score 15 PPG. He doesn't do much else, though. I'd take Murray over Sexton. As long as Jordan Clarkson remains with Utah, it will be tough for Sexton to thrive.
--People have become infatuated with Orlando Magic C Bol Bol. Count me among them. Bol is starting now and has contributed double-digits in points and boards in consecutive games, adding seven blocks. He's 7-foot-2! As being perhaps the last person still playing in a roto format, I fully appreciate the blocks. Alas, Bol also had eight turnovers in those two games. I play in a league with assist-to-turnover ratio, and rostering Bol there is a problem. I have no shares of Bol, but I can't stop watching. Is this a similar statistical player to Indiana Pacers C Myles Turner, but at literally no draft day cost? It may be!
--I think fantasy managers were so concerned about Minnesota Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns losing so many rebounds and blocks to newcomer Rudy Gobert that he fell to the middle of Round 2, or further. Towns is losing shots, but not to Gobert, and he has seven assists in three of the past four games, which is a new and welcomed trick. I think I would trade for Towns right now, expecting things to improve. The Timberwolves are a bit loaded in the starting lineup, and SG/SF Anthony Edwards is going to be the leading scorer, but Towns has more to offer than his current stats. Gobert doesn't shoot; he attempted one field goal in Tuesday's loss at Phoenix. If Towns averages 22 PPG, 9 RPG and 5.5 APG, it should be enough to retain first-round value.
--I loved Pacers PG/SG Tyrese Haliburton heading into this season, but he's currently among the top-5 on the Player Rater, and few expected that. The Kings moving Haliburton, the expendable Buddy Hield and other stuff for the excellent but limited Domantas Sabonis and other stuff was a mistake in February, and it looks far worse now, regardless of how De'Aaron Fox plays. Haliburton is a star and perhaps a top-10 overall fantasy option now. Sabonis is off to an uneven start and has fantasy managers seething about his low points output. Sabonis entered Wednesday ranked 115th in field goal attempts per game. Nope, that's not going to work. We love the boards and dimes, but this is bad. The Kings are Kings-ing again (though I love what Kevin Huerter is doing).