When healthy, LA Clippers SF/PF Kawhi Leonard is one of the signature players in the NBA, a big-time scorer and defender and someone fantasy basketball investors gravitate to and depend on. After all, Leonard, with career averages of 19.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG and 1.8 SPG for three franchises, has been a first-round pick for fantasy managers for years. This season, his ADP hovers around No. 30, a borderline third-round selection. Even after missing all of last season recovering from a torn ACL, optimism abounds.
We're one week into the new season and I'm not feeling so optimistic. Despite including Leonard in my "Do Not Draft" column, I held onto him in a keeper league (five players) from last season, figuring he'd provide big numbers and I'd be patient with the myriad missed games. Leonard missed Tuesday's loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder and may not play the rest of the week, citing right knee stiffness. It's October and surely the right move for a title contender with depth. The franchise should be, as coach Ty Lue noted, cautious with the superstar.
Whether fantasy managers are cool with this caution is another matter. Leonard came off the bench in his first two appearances this season, scoring 14 and 11 points, respectively, over 21 minutes in each game. He looked good in those games, actually, quick and spry, aggressive and strong. He rebounded, defended, earned trips to the free throw line. It was encouraging. We expected he'd sit out one half of the team's back-to-back games for a while, perhaps all season. We didn't expect a setback so soon costing him a week of games.
Perhaps it's really not much of a big deal, but you must know I already looked back to see who I could have protected instead of Leonard in that one league of mine. Who wouldn't look back? I could have kept Utah Jazz PG Mike Conley. Nah. Old, and no upside there. Boston Celtics PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon? Eh, talk about missing games! How about Houston Rockets SG Jalen Green? Definite upside there. Darn it. I already regret this move.
ESPN Fantasy projected Leonard to play in 61 of the team's 82 games, which I'd be cool with. This isn't A.C. Green (known for his durability). Leonard last played in 61 games back during the 2016-17 campaign, so this projection is aggressive, but seems realistic. Why would a fantasy manager deal with missing a quarter of the games? ESPN Fantasy projected 25.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.6 SPG and excellent shooting. Well then, that's why!
Keep Leonard rostered. I will, obviously. This is a weekly format, and I may have to bench him for -- gulp -- Jazz SG/SF Malik Beasley or Dallas Mavericks SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr. next week, but hey, stuff happens. It's early. I knew the risk. The Clippers are 2-2 but they know they are playoff-bound even if Leonard sits out all season. Star SG/SF Paul George sat out Tuesday, and he's not so durable himself.
As for other Clippers, C Ivica Zubac led LA starters with a measly 10 points on Tuesday. He's solid. Surely SG/SF Norman Powell is capable of scoring in the high teens in Leonard's stead, as soon as he stops missing so many shots, and SG/SF Terrance Mann screams upside. PG Reggie Jackson proved himself a capable scorer and passer last season and rejuvenated PG John Wall has scored in double-digits all three games, though I want no part of him.
Perhaps the Clippers will even find a way to get defensive maven and underrated fantasy option SF/PF Robert Covington more than 20 minutes per night. This is a good, deep team. They will be cautious. We must... remain optimistic.
Other thoughts after one week of games:
--The main reason I didn't consider keeping Green over Leonard, other than the fact Leonard is a superstar, was field goal shooting. Green took a lot of reckless shots last season, looking eager to do so, and in a head-to-head categories league, I thought I might lose field goal percentage each week. He did damage. Green, still only 20, is off to a fantastic start, hitting 48% of his 3-pointers through four games. It probably can't continue, but I'll keep watching and wondering "what if."
--Watching the Dallas Mavericks fall to a New Orleans Pelicans team lacking Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram on Tuesday night, it seems obvious the Mavs lack scoring depth. PF/C Christian Wood gets all the shots he wants -- and then some -- because nobody's shooting other than PG/SG Luka Doncic and PG/SG Spencer Dinwiddie. This bodes well for Doncic potentially leading the league in scoring. No, really, I could see him averaging 30 PPG.
--As for Williamson already missing a game and it has nothing to do with a prior injury, how can you be surprised? Dynamic player, but not durable. You've been warned for years. And Kawhi is 31. Zion is 22. Not the same thing.
--Maybe it's nothing, but Suns coach Monty Williams keeps giving more and more minutes to C Jock Landale, who contributed 17 points and 7 rebounds Tuesday, and was a plus-27 in the rout over the Golden State Warriors. Landale was a 26-year-old rookie for the San Antonio Spurs last season, thrown into the Dejounte Murray deal to the Atlanta Hawks this summer and then sent to the Suns for cash. Keep an eye on Landale in deeper leagues. He may average 10 PPG and 6 RPG while shooting well and that is fine for a last active option.
--I find myself tuning into New York Knicks games in part so I can watch C Isaiah Hartenstein play. Yeah, sounds odd just typing that sentence out. Hartenstein is fun! More than half his 9.3 RPG come on the offensive end, and he clearly wants to shoot 3-pointers, too. He's efficient and active on offense and plays defense. It's really a strong center timeshare with Mitchell Robinson and fantasy managers can make a case for each fellow. Oh, and watching PF Julius Randle and PG/SG Jalen Brunson is fun, too.
--It seems only a matter of time before exciting rookie PF Keegan Murray pushes struggling veteran SF/PF Harrison Barnes out of the Sacramento Kings starting lineup. Murray looks great and Barnes, long an underrated fantasy option, looks awful. OK, so plenty of shooters are off to slow starts, but he's missing free throws (53.8%) too. Murray, the Iowa product selected No. 4 overall in the June draft, should be rostered everywhere in fantasy by now.