Zion Williamson can be a joy to watch on the basketball court, at least when he manages to find his way onto one. Pardon the sarcasm, but Williamson missed the entire 2021-22 season recovering from foot surgery, and his missing myriad games was hardly a new thing.
Williamson participated in only 85 games during his first three NBA seasons, due to various ailments. Now presumed to be healthy, fantasy managers seem a bit too eager to covet Williamson, even though we can hardly presume anything.
If we focus on the positive, it's true that Williamson is a dominant scorer, an unstoppable force down low, and perhaps one day he will average 30 PPG. Williamson really is that good, and it's fun to watch him perform.
However, in addition to major durability concerns, we can poke a few holes in some statistical ones as well. Williamson scores points, no doubt about it. However, at least from what we have seen, he has appeared to be only modestly interested in rebounding and defensive responsibility, has little outside range and he does major damage to a fantasy team's free throw percentage.
That's why Williamson is a dangerous pick in the first three rounds of a points or categories draft, but chances are strong that's what it will take to secure him in your league, regardless of format. Early ESPN ADP shows Williamson going in the first three rounds, ahead of so many productive, durable options such as Miami Heat PF/C Bam Adebayo, Cleveland Cavaliers PG Darius Garland, Chicago Bulls C Nikola Vucevic and Milwaukee Bucks PG Jrue Holiday.
This is simply too aggressive for Williamson. Name value shouldn't matter in fantasy sports. In this case, it appears to do just that.
There are so many safer picks in the early rounds, players without the fancy name and game, but who we can count on to suit up regularly and provide a more well-rounded statistical output, too. Scoring points is nice, but Williamson should be doing more.
He should pile on the boards, too, while developing an outside game, contributing more steals and blocks, of course, there is little excuse for someone so talented to miss so many free throws, and make no mistake, Williamson gets to the line a lot, so it hurts that much more.
There's certainly a difference between labeling a young NBA player as must-watch TV while also letting others invest in fantasy leagues. Perhaps Williamson finally makes strides in several areas -- rebounding, free throw shooting, durability -- but there are simply too many other safer bets with considerable upside in the first three rounds.
Other players to avoid at their current ADP
Let's start with the Los Angeles Lakers and evaluate stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. It's all about value in fantasy sports.
James is going as the No. 4 pick in ESPN ADP. That's so aggressive for a 37-year-old player who has played in 60 games in only one of the past four seasons. James was so awesome last season, carrying the team around him that missed Davis much of the time, and the team hopes he doesn't need to do this again.
Davis is going No. 20 in ADP. That is far more palatable, but still, I'm likely to avoid Davis (only 76 games in two seasons) even late in the second round. Durability really matters. Yes, most great players miss some games, but Davis misses many, and his numbers no longer mirror his dominant Pelicans days.
Meanwhile, there are several Brooklyn Nets not worth their ADP. Kevin Durant is back after attempting to break up the team, while Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons certainly didn't try to help.
Durant is 34. As with James, we don't question the numbers, but the number of games. Separately, Durant pouted and demanded a trade this offseason, and who's to say it doesn't happen again? It's quite a gamble with a first-round pick! Irving is going in Round 5 and Simmons several rounds later, and while I still will not target them, we must acknowledge the risk may be worth the reward that late. Durant is a far bigger risk at No. 7 overall, ahead of Jayson Tatum, James Harden and Karl-Anthony Towns.
LA Clippers star Kawhi Leonard returns after missing an entire season due to a torn ACL. Nobody expects Leonard to even approach 60 games; he last passed that mark during the 2016-17 season with the San Antonio Spurs. Leonard in Round 4 is not a bad gamble, but still, you know he will miss myriad games. Speaking of that theme, his colleague Paul George is also eminently talented, but he last played in more than 60 games four seasons ago. It is hard to justify investing in Round 2. The Clippers added John Wall this offseason. He last suited up for a game in April 2020 but, because you can probably get him after Round 10, he doesn't belong on this list. Doesn't mean you want to rely on him, though.
Checking in on the NBA champion Golden State Warriors, PG Stephen Curry is the lone member of the team going in the top 50. That's smart. Then a trio of stars show up right after that in ADP, each of them with flaws for fantasy purposes.
It's heartwarming that Klay Thompson returned after multiple missed seasons and helped his team win again, but scoring, free throw shooting and 3-pointers are not enough to justify a Round 6 ADP. You need more boards, assists, field goal shooting -- a more well-rounded profile. Thompson was never a fantasy star.
Andrew Wiggins isn't better. He usually goes much later in ADP, but based on his recent playoff success, it has overrated him. You won't even get 20 PPG here, or decent shooting, rebounding or anything else.
Then there's PF Draymond Green. He's more valuable in points formats than category-based, but still, the lack of scoring is a far bigger problem for your team than his.
Then we get to the rookies. Hey, I understand why fantasy managers gravitate toward big-name debuting players. They haven't failed in the NBA yet. It's a huge transition from college -- or overseas -- the NBA.
But remember... it took Detroit Pistons star and No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham months to get acclimated. Toronto Raptors SF/PF Scottie Barnes won the Rookie of the Year award, but he was barely top-50 on the Player Rater. Let others reach for rookies Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith Jr. and others. Note that Chet Holmgren will not play this season after suffering a Lisfranc foot injury.
Others on my mind, in ADP order
Pelicans SG CJ McCollum really stepped up his scoring and assists after the trade from Portland, but few expect the same production this year. He's somewhat similar to the Warriors' Thompson in that he scores, but is not a great overall fantasy option, certainly not for the first five rounds. What's with all the suddenly missed free throws, too?
Perhaps this is the year Washington Wizards PF/C Kristaps Porzingis finds durability! Yeah, right. He's averaged 50 games over four seasons. Porzingis provides numbers, but Round 5 is too early to invest in such a brittle player.
Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray should be ready for October after missing a season with a torn ACL. Don't count on more than 60 games, but the problem here is counting on assists. Murray's center gets the assists. You need a PG averaging more than 5 APG. He's never done it.
Some view PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon as the PG the Boston Celtics need, but he's not even likely to start. Also, he's constantly injured.
Speaking of injuries, I am a big Jaren Jackson Jr. fan, but the Memphis Grizzlies big man broke his foot and may not play until January. We see fantasy managers trusting vague injury timetables annually. Big mistake.
Finally, as of this writing, Miles Bridges remains a free agent and has far bigger problems off the court, including legally. Do not draft him in the first 10 rounds assuming everything just works out.