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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
In the Forecaster and this article, we have to treat the schedule as though it's fixed so we can evaluate. Clearly, at this time, the schedule is very fluid with games being regularly postponed due to COVID-19 absences. This Forecaster operates on the currently scheduled games, but it's an absolute necessity to check the latest information on schedules on Monday before the leagues lock for the week. We'll update the Forecaster to account for postponements as they happen.
This is a lighter week than usual as far as games played, in large part because it's Super Bowl week. There will only be two games on Super Sunday, and that trickles down through the schedule such that only eight teams have four games, 20 play thrice and two teams have two games. The upshot is that only a couple of teams have major player availability issues, but on the flip side there are eight teams that could stand out further in the positive direction than usual.
All five teams to score eight or higher on the Forecaster this week have four games, led by the Minnesota Timberwolves who scored a perfect 10. The Wolves have been one of the hotter teams in the league, with a strong team offense and a more questionable defense that lead to a lot of points being scored on both sides. The Toronto Raptors are another team that has quietly caught fire, and they parlayed that into a 9 in this Forecaster. The Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns round out the top-5, each with 8s.
On the other side of the coin, the Orlando Magic reside in their typical spot with a 1 in the Forecaster, despite playing three games. The Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks only play twice, and turned in a 2 and 3 respectively in the Forecaster. The Detroit Pistons, who have snuck under the radar with some positive games of late, but more on defense than offense, scored a 3 with three games.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting, based on what we know currently of the combination of the schedule and injuries. Please check back on Monday, to see what team schedules may have changed ahead of Monday's roster lock.