Whether you're rhyming or running your fantasy squads, there's nothing worse than just using clichés and played-out ideas instead of keeping it fresh. This season, in particular, shapes up as one where utilizing the same stale, old strategies will lead to nothing but lost battles and unsatisfying games. So far, the NBA has fundamentally changed this season, on a level that even the decision-makers of the league likely didn't suspect. So, as we approach the 30-game mark, it's high time that we, as fantasy basketball managers, make a few adjustments to our strategies to optimize our teams in this new world.
"This ol' sucka MC stepped up to me
Challenged Andre' to a battle and I stood there patiently
As he tripped and stumbled over clichés,
So-called free-styling..." -Outkast, Two Dope Boys
During the last few seasons leading up to this one, the NBA kept upping and re-upping the ceiling as far as points scored and scoring efficiency were concerned. Teams had finally figured out how to optimize their production in the face of the 2005 rule change that emphasized no hand-checking on the perimeter. After 15 years, the Seven Seconds or Less Suns, the dynasty Splash Brothers Warriors, the perfect storm of Daryl Morey's analytics, Mike D'Antoni's wide-open offense and James Harden's unique skillset with the Rockets, the NBA had evolved. The league was full of perimeter creators off the dribble that were deadly from 3-point range, excellent at driving into the paint and creating contact, proficient at the step-back and Euro-steps that may have been called for traveling in generations past, and essentially unguardable without fouling within the framework of the NBA as-was.
Then, this past offseason, the NBA made a "small" rule change that offensive players would no longer be rewarded for contorting their bodies into unnatural shooting motions in order to draw contact, particularly behind the 3-point line. It was styled as a way to minimize the spate of 4-point plays that were becoming more prevalent in the league, and to make the game more aesthetically pleasing after the complaints that some players (**cough***Harden***cough) were making the game less fun to watch.
Most players didn't expect to be affected too much by this rule. Damian Lillard articulated this sentiment last month, "I felt like coming in, the rule change wouldn't affect me, because I don't the trick the referees, I don't do the trick plays, and it's just unacceptable."
But, thus far, Lillard has proven to be wrong in his assumption. The rule change has obliterated the offensive production of the ball-dominant, shooter-scorer volume creator-off-the-dribble type players that were the most productive offensive players in the NBA as recently as the end of last season. How much has the change affected perimeter players (read: guards) vs forwards and bigs? Well, let's compare with some back-of-the-envelope analysis.
Last season, the top three scorers in the NBA (and six of the top 10 overall) were guards. This season, the top two scorers (and six of the top 10 overall) are frontcourt players...and that's only if you count Zach LaVine as a guard, even though he's arguably starting at small forward for the Bulls, else there'd only be three guards in the top 10. If we average the per-game stats of those top-10 scorers from each season across position, we find:
2020-21 top-10 scoring backcourt: six players, 29.0 PPG, 48.1 FP/G 2020-21 top-10 scoring frontcourt: four players, 27.6 PPG, 48.8 FP/G
2021-22 top-10 scoring backcourt: four players, 26.4 PPG, 45.3 FP/G 2021-22 top-10 scoring frontcourt: six players, 27.0 PPG, 49.6 FP/G
Right off the bat, these quick calculations support what our eye-test has been telling us this season about elite-scoring guard numbers being depressed in the new NBA environment. Interestingly, the elite-scoring frontcourt players have been relatively impervious to the production depression this season. This makes sense, as the rule changes are much more likely to impact perimeter players than those that operate closer to the rim. But, let's dig a bit further to really get at the granularity of the changes this season.
If we add the next 10 top scoring guards in the NBA to those (six) guards in the top-10 in scoring in 2020-21, we get a pool of the 16 highest scoring guards in the NBA last season. For equivalence, let's compare them with the 16 highest scoring guards in the NBA this season by averaging the per-game stats across each group.
Top 16 backcourt scorers 2020-21: 26.2 PPG, 19.3 FGA (47.4 FG%), 6.2 FTA (83.0 FT%), 2.8 3PG, 44.8 FP
Top 16 backcourt scorers 2021-22: 23.0 PPG, 18.6 FGA (44.2 FG%), 4.8 FTA (83.0 FT%), 2.6 3PG, 39.1 FP
The story is clear, and it is stark. Guard scoring at the top is way down, on much lower field goal percentages, with significantly fewer free throws attempted. And the end result is a precipitous drop in fantasy points generated by the top backcourt scorers.
Fantasy basketball: break out the mouthpiece
"Value, is what I'm talking about
Take two of these and walk it out..." Outkast, Walk it out remix
So, cool. We've now got some quick but quantitative ways to see how the rule changes are affecting the top scoring guards. We also have some evidence that the rule changes did not have all that much impact on the top scoring forwards and centers in the league. So, how does this information shape our fantasy basketball strategy for the rest of the season?
As always, it's about maximizing value.
If I've got any of the brand name, mega-scoring guards on my fantasy team, I'm working the trade lines to see if I can convert some of that brand value into more tangible fantasy value...likely in the frontcourt. But, let me be clear, I'm not holding a fire sale.
Last month, my colleague John Cregan made the argument that elite players would eventually adjust to the new environment and find ways to maintain their overall impact. Whether you believe his logic or not, if you're trying to trade one of the elite but underachieving guards, you should absolutely memorize every argument Cregan made and turn them into talking points for your trade negotiations.
You should also point out that some high-volume perimeter players have already seemingly made the adjustment and are thriving, with Trae Young as a high profile example. Use him as a posterchild in your arguments. Your goal will be to trade your elite backcourt producers at as close to pre-season value as possible, bringing back players who may not have the same sized brand name, but that may bring more to your bottom line.
On the other side of the coin, if you built your fantasy team around elite scoring big men...well, first, your team is likely doing well in the standings at the moment. Second, there's a good chance that the team managers in your league that drafted dominant guards early are starting to feel some desperation. But you shouldn't just rest on your laurels, either, because Cregan may ultimately prove to be correct. Your frontcourt players have relatively more value now than they did to enter the season, so you should capitalize on that value to maximize your team for 2022.
Your assignment is also to work the trade wires right now...but with the exact opposite arguments as I laid out in the last paragraph. You should argue that, because of the rule changes, whatever player you're trying to trade for is as trash as Noah. Hold up the starkest examples of players' numbers falling off, from Harden to Lillard to Bradley Beal, and argue that your trade partner just can't afford to keep waiting on (insert star guard here) to figure things out and return to level. Point out how their team is struggling, and how fast the season is rolling along, and convince them that they just have to sell their best players for pennies on the dollar to have any chance to turn their seasons around and compete for the playoffs.
Fantasy basketball trades are as much about mouthpiece and sales pitches as they are about actual value. But, everyone's mouthpiece is much more effective when they're staying close to the truth. We all know, by now, that the NBA landscape is different after the rule changes. Now, you may be armed with some numbers to help support your point, whichever side of the trade table you find yourself on.
So, moving forward, it's time to keep your strategy and your teams fresh as you step into the New Year. Sitting on your big name, highly drafted guard(s) is a losing strategy this season. But, banking entirely on your big men to continue to dominate the positional comparison may be risky as well. You can't go back and re-draft the teams you chose in September and October, but between free agency and trades you can still remake your squad into what you want it to be. As we sit in the holiday season, make that your gift to yourself and/or your New Year's resolution. Good luck, and happy holidays.