Orlando Magic PG Cole Anthony hit a mere 39.7% of his overall field goal attempts as a rookie, which is obviously not good, but that was hardly the lone reason to be skeptical about him for fantasy hoops this year.
The 6-foot-2 Anthony hardly played the part of pure point guard, acting in more of a scorer role than distributor. Hey, it happens. Not everyone can expertly run an NBA offense, and the Magic drafted Jalen Suggs a few months ago to do just that. Anthony's future seemed to be one of energetic, shoot-first, sixth-man and, as the saying goes, there is nothing wrong with that.
We move forward several weeks into the season and Anthony entered Monday night as both the No. 12 option on the ESPN Player Rater and in points leagues, one of only seven players averaging at least 20 PPG, 7 RPG and 5 APG. It is stunning, really.
The Magic just knocked off the awesome Utah Jazz and Anthony scored a season-best 33 points in 32 minutes, nailing five 3-pointers and contributing multiple steals and blocks. Who in their right mind would trade this emerging superstar away?
Well, you may not like this, but it sure feels like time is running out on getting top value for Anthony. Again, he is 6-foot-2 and pulling in a bloated 7.1 RPG, but he also has five or fewer boards in four of the past seven games. I love the 44.8% on field goals, but just last week he missed 14 of 18 attempts in a loss to Boston. ESPN Fantasy projected Anthony to shoot 41.6% from the field this season, and we had good reason to believe that was realistic. The way a fantasy manager should look at it is that we expect Anthony to shoot that percentage the rest of the way. That may not be what you want.
Look, players make strides all the time and turn into far better players than expected, but this guy averaging these awesome numbers for six months seems a bit optimistic. Then we throw in the expected maturation of Suggs, the pending returns of projected starting PG Markelle Fultz and enticing PF Jonathan Isaac and usage simply must fall.
Some fantasy managers may react to this and bark, well of course Anthony is just off to a great start and I would love to get Jimmy Butler, Anthony Davis or Trae Young for him. Anthony ranks better than these fellows, and just about everyone else on the Rater, and nobody in their right mind would give you a top-20 player for Anthony. Well, at least they should not. However, myriad people probably think Anthony is legit, too, and this was predictable after he averaged 18.5 PPG in his lone season at North Carolina and, while few paid attention, he averaged 5.7 RPG with 4.0 APG. He shot 38% from the floor.
Whom can you get for Anthony? A top-50 player? Someone like C.J. McCollum or Jonas Valanciunas or Christian Wood? You never know until you ask. Perhaps the Anthony rebounds are sustainable, or Fultz and Isaac take their sweet time returning and Suggs cannot run the offense ... why not? Well, just inquire. I never thought Charlotte Hornets SF/PF Miles Bridges would play the way he is, and still think his production is partly a mirage, but not all the way. Anyway, the same narrative on Bridges goes with Anthony; if you do not think they will end the season as top-25 options in fantasy, then their value will never be higher. Explore opportunities.
By the way, when it comes to Suggs, just a wee lad at 20 years old, one can see how he will become the superior player to Anthony, in time. I doubt that time is in the next six months, but be patient in dynasty formats. It is tough to deal with anyone shooting 30% from the field, as Suggs is, or his 3.5 turnovers per game, which is ridiculously high for someone not piling on the assists.
Suggs is far from the lone rookie struggling with his shot. I finally, mercifully benched Houston Rockets SG Jalen Green and his 35.3% FG in one league. Detroit Pistons No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham hit a few 3-pointers in his most recent game, but he is not running the offense yet and a 23.2% FG is just brutal. Anthony for Suggs in a dynasty format in which you do not think you can win this season actually makes a lot of sense.
OK, time to move on to the latest version of one analyst's Trade Index. We do try to avoid repeating names from week to week, or throwing obvious ones like Portland Trail Blazers PG Damian Lillard on there (he will not shoot 35.1% on field goals for long), but here are some other names. And no, there is no update on Brooklyn Nets PG/SG Kyrie Irving or the unhappy, malcontent Philadelphia 76ers PG who will go nameless in this space, so do not trade for them!
Trade for
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs: I don't think people realize just how good of a player Murray is. I doubt he averages 20 PPG on this team, but the 8.1 RPG and 8.3 APG are legit, and he may end up leading the league in steals. He is that good. Everyone loves Memphis Grizzlies PG Ja Morant, but Murray is a better option in fantasy.
Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Philadelphia 76ers: Fantasy managers are so impatient that Harris has been dropped in 2.4% of leagues over the past week, as he sits out after testing positive for the COVID-19 virus. He will not be out much longer. Harris was a legit fourth-round pick in ADP for a reason, because he will average 20 PPG and 7 RPG, at least, and he leads the 76ers in APG as well. He is going to have his best season. Get him now before he starts playing again and ups his value because, with Joel Embiid out, Harris will need to score more in the next fortnight.
Harrison Barnes, SF/PF, Sacramento Kings: Not every great start to a season is fluky. Barnes has become a considerably better 3-point shooter overnight, but he is also getting to the free throw line a lot more and, all of a sudden, he cares about rebounding, too! Perhaps much of this is real. Not saying I definitively would trade Anthony for Barnes but you know, I think if you do not need the assists, then I actually would.
Trade away
Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Denver Nuggets: Well, it was clear something was wrong with Porter because he was shooting terribly, and had not hit a 3-pointer in his past four games before missing Monday's game with back soreness. Porter has an extensive and concerning injury history, something perhaps we all overlooked in preseason drafts. Trading for him even as if he is only a top-100 player the rest of the season seems too risky to me.
Kemba Walker, PG, New York Knicks: So many angry comments came after he basically led my "Do Not Draft" article, but here we are and Walker is an unfortunate statistical shell of his former self. Alex Caruso, De'Anthony Melton and Anfernee Simons, not to mention his very available teammate Derrick Rose, all rank better on the Player Rater. Julius Randle is the lone Knick averaging more than 3.1 APG. Perhaps you can trade Walker. If not, just move on.
Al Horford, PF/C, Boston Celtics: What a start for this rejuvenated 35-year-old! The problem is he seems unlikely to average 2.6 BPG for long, and oh, we should prepare ourselves for missed games.
More information needed
Gary Trent Jr., SG/SF, Toronto Raptors: He was just a 3-point shooter a season ago and now he leads the league in steals, too. In fact, his 3-point shooting numbers (frequency and accuracy) are down and they really should improve! I do think we need to see if this continues before heralding this a top-50 fantasy option, though.