Click here for weekly rankings and start/sit recommendations
Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player. Yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week. We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
As of this writing, there are no known cancellations of games for the next week due to COVID-19. The hope is that there will be no COVID-19 cancellations this season. This Forecaster operates on the currently scheduled games, but it's still worth it to check the latest information on schedules on Monday before the leagues lock for the week just in case.
We're approaching the last week of the first month of the season, and players are starting to settle in at their level. The cold starts for the perimeter scoring stars have persisted, and by this point it has to be assumed that the new foul-calling rule changes are influencing how these players produce. It will be interesting to see, over the course of the season, if/when players adjust their styles and start producing more similarly to previous values. But, for now, we at least have an idea of the current state of the game and what to expect players to produce.
And, as always, a large part of our expectations of player production has to factor in team schedules. Let's take a look at the Forecaster, to see who is set up for success this week vs. those that have more challenges to fight through.
For the second week in a row, 16 teams have four games scheduled. However, this week only 12 teams have three games, because two teams play only twice. Off top, then, we'd expect that the Washington Wizards and Orlando Magic are likely to finish low in the Forecaster this week. Spoiler alert: they do. Meanwhile, at the top of the ratings, all 10 teams to score 8 or higher on the Forecaster play four games. The Brooklyn Nets scored the only perfect 10, with the Memphis Grizzlies, Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns scoring 9s. The Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans Pelicans all scored 8s to round out the high scores.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Magic had the lowest score of the week with a 1 in two games. There were no scores of 2 in this week's forecaster, but the Wizards join three-game teams the Cleveland Cavaliers, Houston Rockets, New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder in scoring 3s. Of note among this group, the Knicks this season have been stronger offensively and involved in higher scoring games compared to their team from last season, so they are the member of the low-scoring group that seems most likely to outperform their score.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting due to the combination of the schedule and injuries.