When Miles Bridges was drafted No. 12 overall in the 2018 NBA draft, he was an impressive athlete whose game popped visually from Day 1. He oozed potential but needed to work on his ball-handling, his outside shot and his ability to create team offense in order to become a true impact player.
I noted this when I scouted him at the 2018 Las Vegas Summer League:
"Bridges is a big, uber-athletic wing with an NBA body who can do a lot of things on the court. That said, Bridges doesn't have the handle or vision to be a primary initiator. Thus, the 3-point shot will be a key"
Steady strides
"We moving on up in the world like elevators" -Outkast, Elevators
Three seasons of consistent improvement since his Las Vegas Summer League days, Bridges is delivering on all of that potential in the best way possible.
He's exploding up the fantasy basketball rankings the same way he lifts off to catch highlight-reel alley-oops from LaMelo Ball. But, while no one really expected him to be a top-25 fantasy producer this season (he currently ranks 24th in fantasy points/game), the elements of the improvements in his game have been on display for a while now.
He made dramatic strides as a player from his second season in 2019-20 to last season, even if those improvements didn't show up obviously in his raw box score numbers. To see the improvements, one would have to delve deeper into analytics. When you do, Bridge's upward trajectory over the last two years becomes clear.
Start with overall team impact. Two seasons ago, the Hornets were outscored by 9.9 points per 100 possessions with Bridges on the court. While this isn't an indictment on a team that finished 23-42, the kicker is that the team was 7.5 points per 100 possessions worse with Bridges on the court than when he was off. This indicated that he wasn't just on a weak team, but his units played worse than the other units on the team.
Fast forward to the next season, and the story changed.
Even though the Hornets were still well below .500 as a team at 33-39, they actually outscored their opponents by 0.3 PP100 with Bridges on the court, and the Hornets were 5.5 PP100 better with Bridges on the court than when he was off. His on-off +/- improved by a whopping 13.0 PP100 from his second season to his third, indicating that his contributions to winning basketball went way up. But, what were those contributions?
Numbers on the rise
Bridges' volume stats didn't change all that much from season two to three:
Season 2: 13.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 1.5 3PG, 1.5 TO
Season 3: 12.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 1.8 3PG, 1.6 TO
What did change was Bridges' scoring efficiency, which went through the roof:
Season 2: 48.6 2P%, 33.0 3P% and 80.9 FT%
Season 3: 59.3 2P%, 40.0 3P% and 86.7 FT%
Some of the shooting improvement might be attributable to playing next to an excellent young point guard in Ball who could get Bridges high-efficiency looks both at the rim and from downtown. But a lot of that improvement is attributable to Bridges himself, who clearly put in the work to make himself a more dangerous scoring threat from all over the court.
Further, Bridges improved the efficiency of his all-around game as well. His Total Rebound Percentage (TRB%, estimate of percentage of team's rebounds a player grabs while on the court, according to Basketball-reference) increased from 9.9% to 11.1%, his Assist Percentage (AST%, estimate of percentage of a team's field goals a player assists while on the floor, according to B-R) improved from 9.4% to 11.4%.
Both his steal percentage (STL%) and block percentage (BLK%) improved incrementally on defense, and his 3-Point Attempt Rate (3Par) jumped from 0.398 up to 0.466. But, his overall volume stayed roughly equal because his usage percentage (USG%) dropped from 20.0% in season two to 17.3% in season three.
Put this all together, and Bridges went from an inefficient player as a sophomore to a guy that maximized the value of his touches on offense and created more opportunities and possessions for his team on defense. This is why his team impact improved so much; he was playing a much better floor game. Again, improving dramatically without it really showing up in his volume box scores.
Taking the next step
Now, let's look at today. Through the first couple weeks of the season, Bridges has improved in a major way in the box scores, enough to zoom up into the top-25 in fantasy scorers. But his improvements in those various categories (e.g. TRB%, AST%, STL%, BLK% and 3Par) are often less dramatic from Year 3 to this season than they were from Year 2 to Year 3.
He has made major strides as a ball-handler, generating more assists while simultaneously lowering his turnover percentage (TOV%) to effectively double his assist-to-turnover ratio. But, the main reason his volume has improved so much is that his usage is up dramatically, to a career-high 26.7 USG% without giving back much of his efficiency gain.
Stepping out of analytics jargon, Bridges' ascent can be explained by him spending the last three years improving in the elements I identified before his rookie season began. He has made major improvements as a shooter and team-offense creator, he's playing hard and making a difference on defense, and he's maximizing his elite athleticism all over the court. Oh, and he's also playing next to one of the best up-and-coming star point guards in the league, so he gets a handful of easy buckets at the rim and behind the arc every game.
Put it together, and Bridges is one of the more exciting young players in the league. He's only 23 years old, just scratching the surface of his prime, and he is clearly willing and able to put in the work to improve his game.
Bridges still has elite athleticism and strength, but has now married that with much improved skill and a team that's giving him the opportunity to shine.
Who's the next under-the-radar talent?
Looking at Bridges' rise introduces an obvious follow-up question: who's next? What other young players might be bubbling, quietly improving and playing a high-impact game in a smaller role that could explode given the right set of circumstances?
Here are a few that catch my eye:
Lonzo Ball, PG, Chicago Bulls
The No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft is now on his third team in less than five seasons. He's generally considered a promising young player, though he's been largely overshadowed by his little brother's success and hasn't quite popped the way you'd think a top-two draft pick might.
But, take a look at the top-10 in the NBA Real Plus Minus (RPM) list from last season:
1. Stephen Curry
2. LeBron James
3. Rudy Gobert
4. Paul George
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo
6. Nikola Jokic
7. Joel Embiid
8. James Harden
9. Damian Lillard
10. Lonzo Ball
This list includes the NBA MVP winners from eight of the last 10 seasons, nine future Hall-of-Famers... and Ball. That could be an indication that, even though he wasn't making a huge splash last season with the Pelicans in the box scores or public opinion, Ball may already be playing one of the highest impact games in the NBA.
Now he's got the keys to the new-look Bulls franchise, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Ball have his own statistical explosion.
Mikal Bridges, SF, Phoenix Suns
Bridges was 8th among small forwards in RPM last season, and earned a big extension this offseason. The Suns realize what they have, and he could be bubbling up.
Jordan Poole, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors
Poole was 16th in RPM among shooting guards last season, and has already exhibited breakout potential with the Warriors this season. The 2019 first-rounder out of Michigan is doing much more than just keeping the seat warm for Klay Thompson; he's showing that he could be developing into a star in his own right.
Donte DiVincenzo, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks
DiVincenzo could be a poster-child for this type of analysis. He was 8th among all shooting guards in RPM in 2019-20 in a role off the bench, and earned a starter's job last season. He responded to this larger role by ranking 10th among all SGs in RPM, but while his minutes increased his box score volume didn't go through the roof. Still, he did manage to improve many of the same efficiency stats that Bridges did, most notably TRB%, AST% and 3Par.
DiVincenzo has been injured to start the season, and still trails three of his superstar teammates in usage, but when he gets his opportunity he could be the next to pop. And when he does... remember you read it here, first!