What we know for sure: Brooklyn Nets PG/SG Kyrie Irving and Philadelphia 76ers PG Ben Simmons are awesome basketball players and they are certainly capable of helping fantasy basketball investors this season.
What we do not know for sure: When they will actually play basketball again.
Look, let us be pragmatists. We are playing fantasy basketball and we want to win our leagues. As we enter the final weekend prior to regular season action, there is little indication of when we will see these talented superstars on the court and accumulating their myriad fantasy relevant statistics. Forgetting everything else, that is the bottom line for fantasy.
Alas, there has been no shortage of words spoken and typed about these different, occasionally perplexing situations. The Nets are keeping Irving away until he becomes vaccinated. Meanwhile, Simmons suddenly returned to Philly after a holdout. For fantasy purposes only - my personal thoughts on these men and their situations, ideals, goals, whatevs, are irrelevant here - these are not top-50 picks this weekend. Not close.
Of course, in ESPN's average live draft results (ADP), they are going safely in the top 50. Perhaps it works out. Perhaps they are playing by the time you read this and I look silly. Won't be the first time for me, but I just doubt there is real clarity on either situation so soon.
Our ADP tends to run close to our site's head-to-head points rankings, which is our standard format, expertly handled by veteran Andre Snellings. Then again, Andre is always changing those rankings. So am I with H2H categories and our talented newcomer Eric Moody with the roto format. We must change. News dictates, and news can be anything from what is happening to Irving and Simmons to injuries, depth chart adjustments, just our gut feelings.
Whatever the case, if I cannot tell you that Irving and/or Simmons are playing next week, or in October, or before Christmas, or for another calendar year - and I cannot tell you anything - then they no longer deserve to be selected in drafts the same as what we ranked a month ago, or their fantastic talent warrants. That is it. We are not judging. It is about fantasy basketball value in a seven-month season. I do not desire to guess so early in a draft. We hope they play as soon as possible, and we know, based on their talent and prior statistics, greatness may ensue. The problem is a clear timetable.
Briefly, Irving is part of a magnificent Big Three in Brooklyn. The additions of Kevin Durant and James Harden sure did not seem to compromise his stats last season when he piled on the points, assists and 3-pointers, and he shot with expert precision. Simmons does myriad things well statistically, a nightly triple-double threat and elite defender accruing steals. Sure, he could be so much better, but even if that never happens, he remains a special talent.
So make no mistake, this is merely about the overrated and underrated in our latest ADP, and Irving and Simmons are at the least trending downward, which is to say in some ESPN standard leagues the investors are not as excited to invest. This makes sense. We all crave clarity, and we have absolutely none in these cases. Perhaps it changes tomorrow or next week. Shrug emoji. I do not know, so I will let others take their chances. I want assurances.
Others being overrated
Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans: We all love to watch him play, and there are highlights galore on SportsCenter of his fantastic dunks. There may not be for the next few weeks, though. Williamson is still on the mend from offseason surgery on his fractured right foot. It may be a few weeks, or longer. Put simply, I had/have some doubts about the great Zion going in Round 2 anyway, even when healthy, for his free throw shooting is a big problem and he offers little in the way of 3-pointers, but add the injury risk and No. 16 in ADP is off with reality.
LeBron James, PG/SF/PF, Los Angeles Lakers: What interests me about this one is James annually goes ahead of where we all rank him, and it is happening again. Hey, he is one of the greatest to play the game! The problem is James at No. 12 overall leaves little chance of him being a strong value if he misses games ... and he will miss games. He is 36. The Lakers are old, deep and built for the playoffs. There is no reason for them to push James through another ankle sprain, or on back-to-back scenarios. In addition, Russell Westbrook is a new teammate. That has to cut into James's numbers - assists, mainly - just a bit.
DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls: Part of his allure with the San Antonio Spurs were the gaudy assist totals from someone not technically playing point guard. However, Chicago has a pass-first point guard. A good one (Lonzo Ball). DeRozan will see his usage tumble, and he is hardly a 3-point option, so for him to average 20 PPG or 5 APG is going to be really tough. Round 5 is aggressive and not looking ahead.
Montrezl Harrell, PF/C, Washington Wizards: Now we get into a bit of a gray area. Trust me, you do not want me to agree unilaterally with everything my respected colleagues say or write. You want different opinions, not forced but honest ones, and you can decide whom you agree with. My Harrell expectations do not jibe with the ESPN Fantasy projections, which have Harrell scoring 18.6 PPG. I see numbers more in line with last season, and those numbers are out there four, five rounds later. Time will tell, but to me, Round 5 is also aggressive.
Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors: He is simply not close to ready to play. Thompson tore his Achilles last November. The Warriors hope he plays by this Christmas. It could be more like the Super Bowl. The point is that using a top-100 pick on a player who misses months seems wild to me. Half of you in ESPN standard leagues (only three bench spots, one IR spot you will need for others) will cut him before Thanksgiving (and add his replacement Jordan Poole). By the way, Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray are definitely not playing before the Super Bowl. Draft more immediate aid.
Others:
Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, Dallas Mavericks
Robert Williams III, PF/C, Boston Celtics
Kemba Walker, PG, New York Knicks
Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF, Orlando Magic
John Wall, PG, Houston Rockets
And some being underrated
Bam Adebayo, PF/C, Miami Heat: Perhaps this one - and all of these - is about my ranking versus ADP, but still, the No. 12 option on last season's Player Rater feels like a safe, second-round selection to me, and he is going one full round later than that. The Heat brought in talent, but Adebayo's numbers are still ascending. He can get even better!
Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Philadelphia 76ers: A bit similarly, the No. 23 option on the final Player Rater a season ago is going in Round 5, which seems odd. If Simmons is out, Harris may be even better. Sure, others score and board more, but the shooting matters and there is a reliability factor here as well. It may be a boring pick, but it is a good one.
Jaren Jackson Jr., PF, Memphis Grizzlies: I think it is OK to take some chances in a standard ESPN draft, at least after your first three or four picks. That is your core. Jackson may be part of your core, too. I am hardly blind to the fact durability has been an issue, but he looks healthy and armed with statistical greatness today. Round 8 is simply too late to pounce. In my leagues, he is far gone by then.
Mikal Bridges, SF, Phoenix Suns: Not to harp too much on the Player Rater, but Bridges finished at No. 28, and I believe he is still ascending. Format is a big deal here, and perhaps I heart him a bit too much, whereas in points leagues he needs to score more. Still, if you wait until Round 9 it will be too late.
Kevin Porter Jr., PG/SG, Houston Rockets: I went rather bold in predicting Houston's Big Three - yes, there are three! - are going to be awesome in fantasy, and that includes the misunderstood Porter. I rank him generously, but again, perhaps I am more willing than in prior seasons to take some chances if my core is safe and reliable. Porter's upside, along with rookie Jalen Green, is ridiculous.
Others:
Richaun Holmes, PF/C, Sacramento Kings
OG Anunoby, SF/PF, Toronto Raptors
Jonas Valanciunas, C, New Orleans Pelicans
Robert Covington, SF/PF, Portland Trail Blazers
Tyler Herro, PG/SG, Miami Heat
Jordan Poole, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors
Steven Adams, C, Memphis Grizzlies
Tyrese Maxey, SG, Philadelphia 76ers (my final pick of each mock draft!).
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