When it comes to fantasy drafts, people always have an idea of who to draft in the first or second round, but often championships are decided by the decisions we make in the middle and late rounds.
Yes, sometimes the picks made in the later rounds end up being the first players you drop to pick up a hot free agent. Other times, though, those picks can be the ones that help lead your team to victory.
This is particularly true in deeper leagues, where the added teams and deeper benches ensure that the free agency pool isn't quite as stocked with players that can come in and contribute. Instead, when injuries or underachieving stars strike, the place to look for help might actually be your own bench.
To that end, let's discuss some of the deep sleepers who might help drive your team to championship status at the end of the season.
Note: The Average Draft Positions (ADP) listed below are as of Oct. 7.
Marvin Bagley III, PF, Sacramento Kings (ADP 121.2)
Bagley was the number two overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, just after Deandre Ayton and before Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Trae Young.
Collin Sexton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Michael Porter Jr. are a few other stars to come out of the lottery of that class that will be drafted well before Bagley in fantasy drafts this year. Unlike his more heralded draftmates, Bagley has had major injury issues in his short NBA career, missing 121 games in three seasons, with at least 20 missed games in each season. The injuries have not only held down his production totals, but they've also seemingly stunted his development as his averages have been metronome consistent in all three seasons.
With that said, those averages aren't so bad. Career averages of 14.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG are respectable, and he has realizable upside to average a 3-pointer, block and steal per game, which has value in roto leagues.
That said, Bagley's upside this season has only been glimpsed for stretches at a time in his career. For a 13-game stretch near the end of his rookie season, Bagley averaged 20.4 PPG (54.2 FG%, 74.4 FT%), 8.6 RPG, 0.9 3PG, 0.9 BPG and 0.7 SPG. He dropped a similar stretch for eight games last February, notching 18.8 PPG (55.0 FG%, 64.5 FT%), 8.4 RPG, 1.0 3PG, 0.6 BPG and 0.8 SPG before injuries took most of the next two months.
If Bagley can stay healthy, and play at his level for an extended stretch, he has fantasy starter ability that you could get late in the draft.
Malik Beasley, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP 126.9)
The Timberwolves have three big named players in Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell, so it's easy to overlook how impressive Beasley has been when healthy. In the 51 games Beasley has played with the Timberwolves in the last two seasons, he has averaged 19.9 PPG (44.9 FG%, 82.4 FT%), 4.6 RPG, 3.5 3PG, 2.3 APG and 0.8 SPG.
Those are strong numbers, particularly the 3-pointers that could help swing a roto or roto H2H league. Compare Beasley's numbers with a player like Buddy Hield, who averaged 16.6 PPG (40.6 FG%, 84.6 FT%), 4.7 RPG, 4.0 3PG, 3.6 APG and 0.9 SPG last season. Beasley's per-game averages might even be a bit more impressive, but Hield is going almost 60 picks earlier (ADP 70.3).
Beasley, then, has the achievable upside to be a top-75 player you can get in the late rounds of the draft.
T.J. Warren, SF, Indiana Pacers (ADP 135.2)
Warren was a player I looked at as a breakout candidate last season, but a foot injury ended his season before it could begin. The NC State product had surgery in January and is still dealing with a stress fracture in his foot that's expected to keep him off the court into the start of the season. He'll be a major injury risk, which is why he may be available at the end of drafts.
When he returns to the court, he'll also be joining a Pacers team with strong starters at every position so he's unlikely to come in as the go-to guy on the team. So, why is Warren in this space?
34.8 PPG (60.5 FG%, 88.9 FT%), 6.6 RPG, 4.0 3PG, 2.4 APG, 1.6 SPG and 1.4 BPG
Those were the numbers that Warren averaged through his first five games in the bubble. No, he's never held those averages for a season, and no one expects him to approach anything like that once he's able to get back on the court this season. But, the mere fact that Warren is capable of producing on that level for any period of time makes him worth a late-round flier. Because if he hits on one of those stretches at the right time, he could personally swing a fantasy game by himself.
John Wall, PG, Houston Rockets (ADP 131.8)
Wall and the Rockets have publicly agreed to mutually part ways, with Wall expected to sit until the Rockets can come up with a trade for him so the Rockets can rebuild around their (extremely) young nucleus. And with two seasons and more than $90M remaining on his enormous contract, there's a legitimate chance that the Rockets can't find a taker and Wall ends up sitting out the season.
However, Wall is a 31-year old five-time NBA All Star who has missed much of the three seasons since his last All Star appearance due to an Achilles injury. Will he really want to sit out another entire season, during what could be the end of his prime years? And, will the Rockets really be content to make Wall the third-highest paid player in the NBA while not even playing him and thus getting no value for their investment?
If the answers to those last two questions are "no," and the Rockets and Wall decide they're willing to work together to get him to a new team, Wall still has star-level talent. Another year removed from his injury, in the right circumstances Wall could still produce borderline star-caliber numbers. That type of upside speaks to me, and when available I've tended to draft Wall with my last pick in various leagues.
Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Detroit Pistons (ADP 132.9)
Olynyk had been a strong per-minute player for several years with the Heat, but had typically been part of a timeshare that limited his upside. That changed at the trade deadline last season, when the Heat traded Olynyk to a rebuilding Rockets team willing to give him starter minutes. Olynyk responded by averaging 19.0 PPG (54.5 FG%, 84.4 FT%), 8.4 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.8 3PG, 1.4 SPG and 0.6 BPG in 31.1 MPG across the final 27 games of the season.
This season, Olynyk may return to a sixth man role on the Pistons behind Isaiah Stewart and Jerami Grant, but if he can earn in the mid-upper 20s of minutes per game, he has very achievable top-100 upside. And, as he showed last season and in previous campaigns in Boston, if he ends up starting for any extended stretch in the regular season, Olynyk could be a true fantasy impact player.
Mason Plumlee, C, Charlotte Hornets (ADP 137.2)
Plumlee flirted with averaging a double-double last season with 10.4 PPG and 9.3 RPG in 26.8 MPG for the Pistons. His peripheral contributions were quietly impressive as well, as he averaged a career-best 3.6 APG along with 0.9 BPG and 0.8 SPG.
This season, Plumlee looks to start for a Hornets team lacking another true center. He'll also be playing next to one of the gifted young point guards in the league in LaMelo Ball, who can take advantage of Plumlee's pick-and-roll upside as both a finisher and as a secondary passer. Plumlee could easily be in for the best season of his career, which has very achievable top-100 fantasy basketball upside.