I did my first mock draft a couple weeks ago, freshly armed with the player projections and rankings I'd spent the previous month compiling. I was happy with my picks every round, feeling that I was getting value with each selection. But when I took a step back and looked at my draft, eight of my 13 picks were point guard eligible. The reason for that was obvious when I looked the draft over ... in almost every round, the value was with the point guards.
Meanwhile, after the first few rounds, there were rarely forwards available of similar caliber to those guards. My first two picks in that league had been Paul George and Kevin Durant, but only one of my next nine picks would be a forward.
This is the importance of a tiered approach to preparing for drafts. By grouping prospects into tiers before the draft, I'm able to clearly illustrate the phenomenon I noted in that mock draft.
Through the middle parts of the draft, the forward positions are the sparsest of them all so, when deciding between similar caliber players, it might behoove you to lean toward filling the scarcer position with the knowledge that there's a better chance to fill your backcourt with quality a few rounds later.
Bottom line: There's more than one way to build a champion, but one way to do it is to maximize your value at each position based upon where you're picking. Tiers 3-6 contain as many point guards (19) as small forwards (10) and power forwards (9) combined, and by tier 5 the rankings of those forwards is solidly lower than their backcourt counterparts. Keep track of what type of talent might be available at different parts of the draft, and watch for the benefits in your team results. You'll be happy that you did.
The following is my breakdown of players into tiers, by position, based upon my preseason projections. It's worthwhile for you to see how I break things down, but ultimately you'll get the most benefit out of taking a few minutes for yourself and breaking down the players into your own tiers based upon your own valuation.
You would be shocked how much a little exercise like that can do to prepare you for your draft, and how much this 20 minutes could set you apart from the other team managers in your league.
Point guard
The top point guard tier contains three players in Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard who are all capable of playing at an MVP level for the entire season. Tiers 2 and 3 comprise elite young talent like Trae Young, De'Aaron Fox, LaMelo Ball and Ja Morant that could each take the leap into the truly elite this season, as well as two dominant defenders with sneaky offensive upside in Dejounte Murray and Jrue Holiday. Tier 4 is the gateway to the elite, with players capable of Tier 1 production but containing question marks that slid them down the list. Tiers 5 through 7 are a diverse group of lead guards whose most common traits are primary roles in leading their various offenses. Tiers 8 and 9 are full of fringe starters, sixth men, young prospects on the rise and impact players trying to recover from injury.
Shooting guard
The top tier is made up of the last two stars to share a backcourt with Russell Westbrook -- James Harden and Bradley Beal. Harden is no longer a fantasy MVP favorite because he's still sharing the ball with two other elite talents, but Beal could explode now that he's the clear alpha usage player for the Wizards. Tiers 2-4 are full of young players still on the rise such as Donovan Mitchell and new Raptors lead Fred VanVleet, with one notable veteran in Jimmy Butler. Tier 5 has four strong scorers in different situations, while Tier 6 is full of rookies and sophomores, along with a third-year player in Nickeil Alexander-Walker who is one of my favorite breakout candidates.
Small forward
Tier 1 has two new faces in Paul George and Jayson Tatum, both of whom showed in flashes last season what they may be able to do with more responsibility on their shoulders this season. Tier 2 is the legendary level, with Kevin Durant and LeBron James both settling in a round later because of questions about durability and stacked teams. Michael Porter Jr. is alone in Tier 3, with incredible upside if he can remain healthy. Tier 4 is the last in which the small forwards are rated at a similar level as the other positions, with three veteran second options who produce their numbers consistently night-in and night-out. By Tiers 5 and 6, question marks and lack of versatility limit the upside of players such as Jonathan Isaac and Andrew Wiggins compared with the backcourt players in the same tier.
Power forward
Power forward is the only position with only one player in Tier 1, with Giannis Antetokounmpo in a league of his own in points leagues. Zion Williamson has the talent to leap out of Tier 2 this season, while Domantas Sabonis' all-around game elevated him to this level. Anthony Davis is traditionally a candidate for No. 1 overall pick, but questions about durability and his role in a super team dropped him to Tier 3, which he inhabits with last season's upstart Julius Randle. Pascal Siakam is another upper-tier talent with injury concerns as he recovers from offseason surgery, while Draymond Green joins him in Tier 4 as a potential bounce-back as his game fits better on successful teams like the Warriors project to be this season. Tiers 5 and 6 are full of talented players with injury questions and young players on the rise and, similar to the small forwards, these tiers are inhabited by players rated lower than their guard counterparts.
Center
The center position is as strong as any, with reigning NBA and fantasy MVP Nikola Jokic joined in Tier 1 by a player with the talent to match his feats in Karl-Anthony Towns. Joel Embiid is as good per-game as any center in the league, but his history of missed games lowered him to Tier 2 with Bulls All-Star Nikola Vucevic. Tiers 3-4 are composed of strong contributors, with young players such as Bam Adebayo, Deandre Ayton and Christian Wood capable of playing themselves up to higher tiers. Tiers 5 and 6 contain young players with talent and scoring ability. The later tiers are more role players or unproven players trying to establish themselves.