The Las Vegas Summer League showcased the first professional experience for many of this year's draft picks, giving us a glimpse at what they may look like on the big stage in the fall. It's key to keep in mind that Summer League is its own environment, so there's not a direct 1-to-1 correlation between being productive in Vegas and being productive in the NBA.
While there are many other factors besides pure Summer League production to consider when evaluating a player's fantasy basketball prospects, performance in Vegas does give some valuable insight.
By looking at not just what a player did, but also how he did it, and combining that with the fit, opportunity and likely rotations of the team that he'll be playing for in the fall, we can start to refine our estimates for what their fantasy prospects might be.
Whose performances in Vegas did the most to help their fantasy basketball prospects for 2021-22? And who might be ready to contribute right away to your points and/or roto teams? Let's discuss.
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Coming out of the draft, the book on Cunningham was that he was a complete player, a playmaker that could either be the primary scorer or the point guard for the Pistons this season. His performance in the Summer League suggests that at this point in his career he's more likely the former than the latter. He averaged 18.7 PPG in 27.7 MPG, but only managed 2.3 APG vs. 4.0 TPG.
The NBA game could be more conducive to Cunningham's brand of playmaking than the Summer League was, because his advantages are more about body size and angles than explosive athleticism. In Vegas, where 1-on-1 play runs rampant, this led to Cunningham having some difficulty getting separation from defenders. In the NBA, though, the on-ball pick is king and Cunningham may be able to use those picks to clear enough space past a defender to gain the advantage. This could be a boon to that assist-to-turnover ratio, and help him improve on the 42.9 FG% and 0.7 FTA he averaged in the Summer League.
One element of Cunningham's game that shined in Vegas was his three-point shooting, where he shot 50% from behind the arc on a healthy 8.7 3PA per game. His shot was streaky, with a lot of that damage done in a seven 3PM performance against the Knicks, but it illustrated that he's put in the work to be a distance threat from jump. It's also worth noting that Cunningham had active hands and an aggressive mindset on defense, averaging 1.7 SPG and 1.3 BPG.
When you factor in that the Pistons are likely to give Cunningham the keys from Day 1, that his game should be more conducive to the NBA than to the Summer League, and that he will be a dual offense/defense threat who could contribute in the scarcer roto triumvirate of threes, steals and blocks, it solidifies his status as an impact fantasy player right away. He should go off the board in the middle-rounds of most drafts.
Green exploded in the Summer League, flashing a diverse scoring package and flare for the dramatic that more than lived up to the hype. He averaged 20.3 PPG in 24.1 MPG, but he did so in a way that looked almost effortless.
He demonstrated finishing ability at every level -- at the rim, in the midrange and behind the arc. He scored off the bounce and off the spot-up. He showed a wicked step-back move more akin to James Harden or Luka Doncic than what you'd expect from a rookie. And he was hot from everywhere, shooting 51.4% from the field, 52.6% from downtown on 6.3 3PA, and 92.9% from the line on 4.7 FTA.
Green obviously isn't expected to come into the league as a 50/50/90 guy, but the diversity of his scoring skillset that includes a deadly distance game and an ability to finish in the paint while drawing fouls bodes extremely well for his NBA scoring prospects. This is where Green's year in the G-League may have served him better than a season in college, because he already plays a pro-style; he won't have as much transition as many of his rookie classmates.
Green didn't demonstrate much in the non-scoring categories in Vegas, averaging only 2.0 APG, 0.3 SPG and 0.0 BPG, but he did grab 4.3 RPG and with his height and leaping ability he should be decent on the boards at the next level. Bottom line here is his scoring prowess is off the charts for a rookie, and he should be the centerpiece for the Rockets' offense from the get-go. The 19-year-old shooting guard should not only lead all rookies in scoring, but he has an outside shot to be a Top-10 scorer in the NBA overall. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he flirts with 25.0 PPG as a rookie, and that upside makes him a mid-round fantasy basketball pick even if his production isn't likely to be as well-rounded as Cunningham's.
Suggs was widely considered one of the bigger impact rookies of this class, and his performance in Vegas only helped the argument. His per-game averages were depressed a bit because he left with injury in the second quarter of the third game, but his on-court performance was stellar. His debut was his most sparkling performance, and the box scores attested to that with 24 points, 9 rebounds, 3 blocks, 2 steals and an assist. He notched a clutch block to send the game into overtime, and in his next game he had a dunk that made SportsCenter Top 10 plays.
Suggs is extremely athletic, especially vertically, and he's got an aggressive mindset on both ends. He was able to get into the paint on offense, either finishing at the rim, dishing to an open teammate or drawing the foul. On defense, he averaged 1.7 SPG and 1.0 BPG in only 21.8 MPG, and his active hands give him a good chance to lead all rookies in steals this season. He didn't generate big assist numbers in Vegas -- only 2.3 APG -- but he's expected to be at least the co-lead guard for the Magic this season and seems likely to settle into at least a handful of dimes per game. His size and athleticism should make him a solid threat on the boards for a guard, so even if his 6.3 RPG from Vegas may be enthusiastic he should contribute. And he even did some good work from behind the arc, one of his biggest questions coming in, knocking down 1.7 3PG on a respectable 35.7 3P%.
Suggs, like Cunningham and Green, should be one of the first rookies drafted in fantasy basketball leagues. I'd peg him in the middle rounds, a solid Top-100 prospect with upside.
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
Barnes was solid in the Summer League, but he's a player whose Vegas production should be closely filtered through his likely NBA role. Barnes has been styled as a do-everything-point-forward type, often compared to Draymond Green, and his Vegas performance supports that. He may have averaged 15.5 PPG, but it was on 41.2 FG%, 27.3 3FG% and 73.9 FT%. Scoring is unlikely to be a strong part of his game as a rookie, though he was able to draw 5.8 FTA per game and grab 2.5 ORPG, which would both be useful skills if they translate.
Barnes is a hustle player, and his 6.8 RPG, 2.0 BPG and 1.0 SPG indicate the categories he's likely to be most productive. He will likely open the season getting big minutes, especially with Pascal Siakam sidelined by injury, so he could have the chance to produce right away. I have him with a borderline draftable grade in standard fantasy basketball leagues, though he could be worth considering in the late rounds of roto leagues as a pro-ready player with upside who may contribute in useful categories.
Other rookie standouts
There are several other high draft picks that are likely to contribute to fantasy basketball squads this season, even if they didn't post world-beater numbers in Vegas. Evan Mobley of the Cavaliers is a great example. He has the ability and will likely earn the minutes early to be worthy of a spot on the fantasy basketball radar at some point in 2021-22, but this article is about players that specifically shined in Vegas, so I'll highlight a few rookies that caught my eye even if they may not have a high likelihood of producing big numbers out the gate. Cam Thomas, for example, led the Summer League with 27.0 PPG in 28.8 MPG, but he plays for the Nets, and is unlikely to see nearly that type of opportunity on their veteran-heavy championship-aspiring squad.
Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
The 19-year-old could very well get some minutes on the rebuilding Rockets this season. Sengun, already noteworthy for his high production in Turkish professional leagues at such a young age, generated some buzz in Vegas by averaging 14.5 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 3.0 BPG, 2.8 APG, 1.3 SPG and 0.8 3PG in only 25.0 MPG. He's a little undersized to play center in the NBA, but he appears to just have a knack for filling the stat sheet when he's on the court. If the Rockets give him run, he could be worth a late-round flyer in fantasy basketball drafts.
Duarte showed excellent 3-point shooting and defensive chops, knocking down 48.3% of his 7.3 3PA while notching 2.5 SPG and 1.8 BPG, and as a 24 year-old rookie is ready to produce right away. He's expected to have a role off the bench for the Pacers, which may not allow him to have the volume, but he's worth keeping an eye on.
Johnson entered last season as one of the most hyped prospects in his class, but a below par college season caused him to fall down the draft boards. He shined in Vegas, though, averaging 19.0 PPG on 57.4 FG, 41.7 3P% and 81.8 FT%. He also grabbed 9.5 RPG and averaged 1.3 BPG in 28.3 MPG. But on a young, deep Hawks squad it's hard to see how he gets many minutes as a rookie.
Luka Garza, Detroit Pistons
Garza, the Naismith Player of the Year last season at Iowa, parlayed his 15.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG and 40 3P% into a two-way contract with the Pistons this season... but by definition, that's unlikely to make any sort of fantasy blip. Still, his effort on both ends of the court and efficiency on offense are worth shouting out, as he's a player that caught my eye.
Non-rookie standouts
The Summer League isn't only for rookies. Many teams send their young players, particularly second-year guys, to get some added experience and work on aspects of their games ahead of the season. One of the most insightful non-rookie matchups I ever saw in Vegas was in 2014, when then unheralded sophomores Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert upstaged lottery teammate rookies Jabari Parker and Dante Exum in a massive head-to-head performance where I tweeted, during the game, that Giannis and Gobert would soon be NBA superstars.
There may not be future multiple-MVPs and multiple-DPoYs in this season's non-rookie Summer League class, but several players did well enough for themselves that it could be a harbinger to better fantasy basketball production as soon as this season.
Patrick Williams, Chicago Bulls
Williams is one that stands out to me, because he's got a big role lined up for the Bulls and showed some translatable skills in the Summer League. His 21.0 PPG was interesting, but his scoring was likely inflated by his big minutes (34.3 MPG) and a heavy shooting volume of 19.3 FGA, of which he only made 37.9% FG, which is unlikely to be replicated in the NBA. That being said, Williams knocked down 43.8% on 5.3 3PA per game, drew 5.0 FTA and made 80% of those shots, and grabbed 9.7 RPG. Williams' role with the Bulls is to be a 3-and-D guy that can also contribute on the glass and finish at the rim. His Vegas performance indicates he's ready to step up in those areas, and since at only 19 years old and still younger than the majority of the upcoming rookie class, his development is a great sign that he could be a late-round contributor in fantasy basketball this season.
Immanuel Quickley, New York Knicks
Quickley was another that produced good scoring volume (20.2 PPG) but with low efficiency (33.7 FG%) in big minutes (33.5 MPG). He was clearly using the Summer League to work on certain aspects of his game, however, particularly his long-range shot and his playmaking. He averaged a whopping 10.0 3PA, more than half of his shot attempts overall, and his cold 24% shooting from behind the arc is what pulled down his overall field goal percentage. But, it's still good to see him putting in the work from downtown, because that likely translates to more 3-pointers in the upcoming season when his shot isn't quite so frigid. The other area he was clearly focused on was his ability to be a floor general, illustrated by his strong averages of 7.8 APG vs. only 2.4 TPG. The Knicks brought in Kemba Walker this offseason to be their primary point guard, but Quickley should still be in line for a larger role as a sophomore, and his Vegas performance bodes well for his "potential point guard of the future" role.
Malachi Flynn, Toronto Raptors
Flynn ended his rookie season with a bang, earning Rookie of the Month honors in April, and he continued his progression in Vegas. With Kyle Lowry now a member of the Heat, Flynn has an increased opportunity to grab hold of meaningful minutes for the Raptors. He opened the Summer League as the best player on the floor in their first game against the Knicks, when he dropped 23 points on 13 shots to go with six boards. For the league as a whole, he averaged 16.8 PPG in 28.7 MPG. His field goal percentage was low, but he was clearly working on his 3-point shot, which he was hitting with regularity off the dribble at high volume. His 41.4 3P% on 7.3 3PA per game was impressive, and this will likely be a large part of his repertoire during the season.
Flynn also contributed 5.3 RPG, 3.0 APG and 1.5 SPG and should contribute to those categories once the season begins. If he earns starter or even sixth man minutes this season -- remember, veteran point guard Goran Dragic is also on the Raptors now -- Flynn has the game to be on fantasy basketball rosters. I grade him as a late round pick with upside, and if things go right it wouldn't be shocking to see him have an increasing career arc akin to his teammate, Fred VanVleet.
Precious Achiuwa, Toronto Raptors
Achiuwa has had a big summer. He competed in the Olympics for the Nigerian national team that upset Team USA in the exhibition games, and contributed a solid 8.0 PPG and 4.7 RPG in Tokyo. He returned home after the Olympics to find that he'd been traded from the Heat to the Raptors as part of the Kyle Lowry sign-and-trade. The Raptors have a deep frontcourt at the moment, but he did show in Vegas a continuation of the upside he's shown through his rookie season and international competition. He averaged 16.7 PPG on 60.0 FG%, knocked down two of his four 3-point attempts in three games, and drew 5.7 FTA per game... though he only made 35.3% of those freebies. He did crash the glass, with 7.3 RPG in 26.1 MPG, and averaged 1.0 SPG and 1.3 BPG to indicate some defensive upside in roto leagues.
The question really is will he be able to get playing time once Pascal Siakam is healthy, along with OG Anunoby and lottery rookie Scottie Barnes. Keep an eye on his deployment in the preseason, and news of how the Raptors plan to use him. If he gets starter minutes he could be worth a late round flyer, but otherwise is just a player to keep on the radar in case the opportunity arises.
Obi Toppin, New York Knicks
Toppin could also have a clearer path to extended playing time if he can break into Coach Thibodeau's rotations now that he no longer carries the 'rookie' designation that Thibs doesn't seem to love. Toppin averaged 21.0 PPG in Vegas, but his 2.0 3PG on 34.3 3P% could be the skill that best translates to his sophomore production. His 8.3 RPG and 2.1 combined steals/blocks are also of interest as parts of his game at the NBA level as well. Toppin, like Quickley, could be a late-round sleeper if his role increases.
Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
Prichard had a huge Summer League, averaging 20.3 PPG on 51.4 FG%, 57.7 3P% and 88.9 FT% with 8.7 APG, 5.7 RPG, 5.0 3PG and 2.0 SPG. He filled just about every roto category with absurd shooting percentages, and pretty much did whatever he wanted in helping lead the Celtics to the Summer League championship game. His game appears in excellent stead heading into his second campaign, but with both Dennis Schroder and Marcus Smart ahead of him on the point guard depth chart it seems unlikely for Pritchard to get enough playing time for big volume. That said, his stellar summer may get me to draft Pritchard late in deeper and/or keeper leagues, for the upside.
Aaron Nesmith, Boston Celtics
The Celtics have completely revamped their team this offseason, and Nesmith is battling newcomer Josh Richardson for the role of primary wing off the bench. Nesmith has an outstanding shooting stroke that he showcased in Vegas to the tune of 39.3 3P% on 7.0 3PA, leading up to the championship game. This could earn him a more definite role and minutes for the big squad this season, though in fantasy his upside seems to be more as a roto 3-point role player than an overall impact performer.
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
Maxey may have an opportunity for an impact role, depending on what the 76ers do with Ben Simmons. He busted out in Vegas, averaging 26.0 PPG on 50.0 FG% and 90.9 FT% with 5.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.0 3PG, 2.0 SPG and 1.0 BPG in 29.3 MPG. Maxey only played two Summer League games, but showed himself to be one of the young veterans that was clearly so much better than the competition across the board that it suggests the potential for him to make an NBA leap if he gets the minutes in year two.
Bol remains one of the more intriguing young prospects in the NBA, and he showed it again in Vegas with averages of 21.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG and 2.0 3PG in 26.9 MPG. Despite his unique combination of length and skill, Bol is playing for a deep Nuggets squad with championship aspirations so it's difficult to see him getting enough run for fantasy basketball value this season. But he's another candidate to watch, and take a flyer on in deeper and/or keeper leagues.