Heading into the All-Star break of a fantasy basketball season I like to take stock of my team(s) for the final months but also look back on how I got here. After all, draft strategy alters from year to year but also player evaluation.
It makes little sense to announce victory laps on who I was right about, but players I missed on makes far more sense so I correct mistakes in future years. While I had no idea the potential top player in fantasy hoops would suddenly become a free throw liability, here are other players I should have evaluated better.
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers: Perhaps it was personal bias, since I root for this team, but I really did believe that all the talk about Embiid being a brittle player was bogus. I thought this was a future league MVP capable of carrying a team on his shoulders to a championship and averaging ridiculous Shaquille O'Neal prime numbers but with 3-pointers and strong free throw shooting. Instead, Embiid has seen a five-point dip in his scoring -- for no good reason, really -- and he is showing less interest in rebounding and blocking shots.
As for injuries, oh yeah, they still exist, as he battles myriad woes and the team continues to monitor him carefully. His career best 64 games from last season might hold again, perhaps forever. What more do we need to see here? Embiid is still a fantastic fantasy option, but viewing him as a first-round pick -- or dynasty building block, to some degree -- seems problematic.
Hassan Whiteside, C, Portland Trail Blazers: While I was all-in on the center Whiteside left behind in Miami, the awesome Bam Adebayo, it turns out Whiteside is top 10 on our Player Rater thanks to more of everything, from scoring to rebounding to a career-best free throw percentage. Whiteside grabs every rebound now and blocks a ton of shots, far more than anyone else, and he is so much more valuable than expected in both roto and points formats.
How does a guy go from 44% to 71% from the line? Is it teaching? Motivation? Perhaps it is change of scenery, which I generally do not believe in. I love Adebayo for the scoring, assists and steals and enjoy him on my teams, but Whiteside's return to fantasy stardom at 30 is fascinating, too.
Fred VanVleet, PG, Toronto Raptors: I think we knew the champions would make room for the Wichita State product in their starting lineup and it would likely result in more scoring and 3-pointers, but Toronto boasts two of the 14 players averaging 6.9 assists or more. Kyle Lowry has taken some hit in the category, but not a ton, and VanVleet is among the top five in steals.
Watching him play in recent seasons, I thought there was room for growth in shooting, but in playmaking, to quite this degree, wow. A year or so ago I started to look at certain NBA franchises and simply trust them more than others, so I should not be surprised the Raptors took an undrafted player and turned him into the No. 36 option on our Rater.
Mitchell Robinson, C, New York Knicks: And then there is the other side of relying on franchises to not only properly evaluate their talent, but create a reasonable environment in which young players can grow and thrive. Not saying that Robinson should be Whiteside on a statistical level, but if the former suddenly ends up traded to a smart team, I would instantly project like 14 points, 11 boards and 3 blocks per game. Just sayin'.
Robinson remains a potential dynasty league monster to me so if you can still get him there, do so, but for this season, it is what it unfortunately is. Rookie RJ Barrett is only 19 and will make large strides next season, but it is tough to trust that the Knicks glean his best from him anytime soon, so I will probably let others covet him.
Chris Paul, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder: Some said he is too old. He is in decline. A trade is obvious. It was quite easy to be pessimistic about the 34-year-old Paul after the Rockets dumped him on the Thunder, especially since we knew Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -- also new, but from the Clippers! -- would likely blossom. I never believed Gilgeous-Alexander would pile on the assists and he has not, but how about Paul maintaining a high level of effectiveness with three teammates all scoring 19 points per game? Dennis Schroder and Danilo Gallinari have played great and this is a sure playoff team, with Paul hitting his shots and, perhaps most importantly, missing only one of the team's first 53 games. How is that possible? Paul last played in more than 61 games four seasons ago and regular readers of this column know I generally avoid players of this ilk. Perhaps durability is teachable after all!
Finally, I was right on a whole bunch of players as well (Trae Young, Blake Griffin, Nemanja Bjelica, Lonzo Ball, Al Horford), but let us briefly focus on Ben Simmons. I had his over/under on 3-pointers at something like 15 made. He will fall almost all the way short of that. While I am always open to the possibilities of young -- and veteran -- players learning new tricks, this one seemed unlikely, like a baseball player entering Spring Training in the best shape of his life. Sure they are.