Welcome back to another edition of the Insider cheat sheet, our weekly roundup of crucial fantasy basketball information taken from ESPN's group of NBA Insiders.
Every Friday throughout the season, we'll provide a rundown of the most crucial bits of intel. You'll gain guidance from some of the biggest names in the game -- including Amin Elhassan, Tom Haberstroh and Kevin Pelton -- to take your fantasy teams to the next level.
Here's what our experts are saying about the week ahead.
Be wary of Randle's rise
The Los Angeles Lakers -- yes the Los Angeles Lakers -- actually look like a respectable team this season. Thus far they have wins against playoff contenders Houston, Atlanta and Golden State, along with a victory over an on-the-rise Phoenix squad. They aren't likely to make the postseason in 2016-17 in such a stacked conference, but the Kobe-less team sure looks to be a piece or two away from a strong future under new coach Luke Walton.
One of the bright spots has been 21-year-old power forward Julius Randle. The Kentucky product, averaging 14.5 points and 8.1 rebounds in 28.3 minutes per game, currently ranks as ESPN's No. 37 overall fantasy player and is owned in nearly 90 percent of leagues. He has thrived in the new up-tempo offensive system styled after Walton's former team in Golden State. Thanks to the progression of young playmakers like D'Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson, Randle's efficiency has skyrocketed since last season, seeing his 2-point field goal percentage jump from 43.6 percent in his second NBA season to 62.2 percent.
As Kevin Pelton notes, if Randle were to maintain that pace, it would be the largest year-over-year increase in 2-point percentage by a player with at least 250 attempts in both seasons since the introduction of the 3-point line in 1979-80. Will these numbers remain consistent all year? Our Insider says no.
"Randle's improvement has been driven primarily by his finishing 82.9 percent of his shots within 2 feet, up from 56.8 percent last season," Pelton writes. "Some progress was to be expected, certainly, but given that no player in the league made 80 percent of his shots from inside 2 feet last season (Hassan Whiteside was tops among players with at least 100 attempts, at 77.3 percent), odds are that Randle is going to regress to the mean."
Fantasy owners must be ecstatic that a player they likely drafted in the mid-to-late rounds (ADP: 81.4) is greatly exceeding expectations. I wouldn't blame them if they choose to ride it out and see if his production can be maintained. But as Pelton notes, it likely won't. He's bound to come back to earth, particularly in his efficiency on close shots, and see his numbers dip some. Consider trading Randle now while his value is highest.
Is Dwight Howard back?
Veteran center Dwight Howard was arguably the best in the NBA while with the Magic at the beginning of his career. He had four seasons of at least 20 points and 14 rebounds a contest, but saw his production -- and, frankly, his reputation -- decline after moves to the Lakers and Rockets. Critics were all set to write him off, but Howard appears to have turned things around in his hometown of Atlanta.
The Hawks (as of Thursday morning) are 6-2, largely due to the big man. He's averaging 15.9 points, 12.6 rebounds and 2.1 blocks a contest. All of those numbers are an improvement from a season ago despite his playing nearly four minutes less each game. It's why he's ESPN Insider Jeremias Engelmann's best developing storyline in the Eastern Conference.
"Atlanta has the NBA's second-best point differential and second-best defense, in no small part thanks to Dwight Howard, who seems to be rejuvenated with his new team," Engelmann says. "He's sporting the second-best scoring rate of his career (21.7 points per 36 minutes), grabs almost 16 rebounds and blocks 2.6 shots per 36, and leads the league in field goal percentage."
Howard, owned in 96 percent of leagues, currently ranks as our No. 40 overall player. He's worth looking to deal for -- or at least monitoring closer -- if you need to bolster your rebounding and blocks categories. Howard could be among the surprises of the fantasy season if coach Mike Budenholzer plays him a bit more as the season progresses.
Trade for Embiid
Is it possible, despite all of the hype, that Joel Embiid is actually being underrated right now? The Philadelphia big man, who missed essentially two years dealing with a foot injury, has looked exceptional so far this season. At 7-foot, it's pretty remarkable to see someone his size cross a player over at the 3-point line and take him off the dribble.
He's played five games and is averaging 17.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks in just 21 minutes a contest. Embiid's 36.1 percent usage rate is No. 2 in basketball behind only Russell Westbrook (43.1). The big issue for fantasy owners is his minutes restriction, where he's being held out of some games completely, but that's set to come off soon. He might well be worth making a move for now, before it happens.
"Given what we've seen from Embiid on the court and what we know (Ben) Simmons can do from his career at LSU, I don't think that usage rate is going to drop off a cliff," Insider Chad Ford says."Embiid has all the tools to be a lethal scorer in the NBA. When he gets more comfortable, perhaps only Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns will have the game and physical tools to stop him in the paint."
"Once Simmons returns, his unselfish play will get Embiid easier looks, and at his size and skill I think Embiid will continue to be the focal point on offense. The Sixers need to get him, developmentally, as many touches as they can. And if he keeps progressing, he'll actually deserve them."
Some may argue that the addition of Ben Simmons from injury in early 2017 may take away touches from Embiid, but our experts see it helping him. After all, Simmons is a rarely-seen unselfish playmaker. If Embiid is open, Simmons will find him. Embiid currently ranks as our No. 87 overall player, but expect that to jump once the restrictions are gone. He's actually available in 22 percent of leagues, so if that's the case for you, add him now. If not, consider making a move where you deal a player in his range with a low ceiling for someone with major upside.
Quick hitters
ESPN fantasy writer John Cregan broke down his biggest pleasant surprises this season. Here are a few of his top choices, along with analysis (LINK: ):
Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans: "With all due respect to Solomon Hill, Omer Asik, Tim Frazier and E'Twaun Moore, this is what happens when you deposit a transcendent talent like Anthony Davis into a lineup featuring the likes of Solomon Hill, Omer Asik, Tim Frazier and E'Twaun Moore. He's a great player surrounded by a couple of replacement-level teammates and absolutely nobody else. It's a dynamic that pushes the great player above a 30.0 usage rate."
Draymond Green, SF/PF, Golden State Warriors: "Green has weathered the offensive hit by funneling his statistical production into less flashy, but equally valuable categories. Unlike Klay Thompson, Green can absorb a hit to a couple of key categories and simply channel the lost offense into other areas of his game. He is the epitome of what I call a 'post-points' player. Like Stephen Curry and Durant, Green's fantasy production is so diversified, so atypical for his position, that he can give up half his offense and still remain elite. Points production doesn't matter when you still remain top-10 in rebounds, assists, blocks and steals."
Mike Conley, PG, Sacramento Kings: "The biggest reason behind Conley's leap is a fundamental one. Conley only played 56 games in 2015-16. Simply participating in 70-75 games will translate into a 2-3 round undervaluation for Conley, who had an ADP of 59.3 in ESPN Fantasy Leagues. "But Conley has also opened the season on fire from downtown. He's taking a career-high 5.0 3-pointers per game, hitting 2.4 of them for a .486 percentage. Conley can't sustain those levels -- his career-high in 3-pointers was in 2014-15, with 1.5 per game -- but he should stay on track for a career year in 3-point production."