Stop me if you've heard this one: Not every prediction hits the bull's-eye.
Here in the world of fantasy sports, we spend a good part of the preseason painstakingly assessing the market value of each and every member of your imaginary teams. However, there are always some underrated, underobserved indicators bubbling under the surface.
Last week, we discussed a few players who may end up underperforming expectations. This week, I want to take a walk on the sunny side of the street by identifying players who I expect to overperform their preseason valuation for the duration of the season.
Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans
2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 24 (9.71 points)
2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 1 (20.06 points)
Back in September, I remember trumpeting Davis' No. 1 overall potential with particular gusto. That was September of 2015. This is the Davis we always expected. He was just a year behind schedule.
Last season, Davis was pegged to take the leap as the centerpiece of an up-and-coming playoff team. This season, Davis is poised to take said leap as the centerpiece of a team currently on pace to go 0-82.
He began the season with a late-first round valuation (No. 11 overall). He's currently ranked No. 1 -- and a dominant No. 1, no less -- in turnover leagues. In the rarified air of the overall top 10, a 3-to-5-spot jump in the rankings represents a sizable shift in the fantasy basketball landscape.
So what happened? Last year's injuries aside, how has Davis suddenly stampeded to his current averages of 30.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 1.09 steals per game?
With all due respect to Solomon Hill, Omer Asik, Tim Frazier and E'Twaun Moore, this is what happens when you deposit a transcendent talent like Anthony Davis into a lineup featuring the likes of Solomon Hill, Omer Asik, Tim Frazier and E'Twaun Moore. He's a great player surrounded by a couple of replacement-level teammates and absolutely nobody else. It's a dynamic that pushes the great player above a 30.0 usage rate.
Davis began the season with two epic performances where he combined for 95 points, 32 rebounds, six blocks, seven steals and eight assists. As a result, and given the newness of the season, his current averages are going to be a bit inflated. Is this just a two-game opening percolation by a great player on a very bad team? Or is there something fundamental in his production that has shifted?
One subtle, striking aspect of Davis' stat line is its uniformity. It isn't just a single category or two that's fueling his rise -- it's a little bit of everything. Davis' shot attempts are only up by about eight percent. His 3-point performance is down. His field-goal percentage is actually down. His effective field-goal percentage is down.
Davis currently stands in third place in points-per-game production (4.01 player rater points), a hefty rise over his 2015-16 ranking (20th). The scoring is impressive, but when charting Davis' return to prominence, I'd look at three particular categories.
His 3.0 blocks per game are a big spike from last year's average of 2.0 per game. That's good enough to rule the NBA in the category, and good for 6.55 player rater points
Davis is averaging 1.9 steals per game. That's top-10 production overall, regardless of position, and No. 1 among all power forwards and centers.
Davis is averaging 11.8 free-throw attempts per game, making 9.5 of them -- a .809 clip. That's 4.7 more free throws made per game above his career average. Davis' gonzo first two games featured 31 combined free-throw attempts.
For all the undulations created by the prospect of Davis' stretch-4 potential, a potential rise in free-throw production could prove just as impactful. If you're rostering Davis, you'd rather have the spike come from free throws, because it's more reliable. Plus, Davis is still averaging 2.0 3-point attempts per game. Even if he's only hitting 19 percent of them at present, the 3-point attempts themselves leave Davis with some room to grow.
Overall, Davis' sustained improvement in blocks and free-throw production, combined with the lack of talent on the Pelicans' roster, could keep Davis in the top 3 for the rest of the season.
Draymond Green, SF/PF, Golden State Warriors
2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 6 (13.88 points)
2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 14 (10.45 points)
Green's production has dropped compared to his 2015-16 numbers. So why is he listed as a success story? Well, swapping Harrison Barnes for Kevin Durant was supposed to kneecap Green's fantasy value -- and his scoring has dropped accordingly, from 14.0 to 9.4 points per game.
His 3-point production is running at 50 percent of his 2015-16 average (0.6 vs. 1.2). His true shooting percentage is an anemic 46.6 percent, his lowest since his rookie campaign. Yet he's still somehow managing to healthily outperform his preseason fantasy rank of 18th. What gives?
Green has weathered the offensive hit by funneling his statistical production into less flashy, but equally valuable categories. Unlike Klay Thompson, Green can absorb a hit to a couple of key categories and simply channel the lost offense into other areas of his game. He is the epitome of what I call a "post-points" player. Like Stephen Curry and Durant, Green's fantasy production is so diversified, so atypical for his position, that he can give up half his offense and still remain elite. Points production doesn't matter when you still remain top-10 in rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.
The best news of all is that, just like with Davis, Green has plenty of room to grow in value. His performance from the floor is bound to improve. Green isn't going to shoot a career low .387 for an entire season. Plus, as he gets more comfortable on offense, some of the touches Durant has siphoned off will inevitably revert back to Green.
Mike Conley, PG, Sacramento Kings
2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 106 (3.38 points)
2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 18 (9.25 points)
Conley is one of fantasy's most perennially underrated players, and perhaps the most underrated point guard of the past five seasons. Conley's been a solid top-40 kind of point guard, the guy you grab in fifth round that leaves you looking smart. However, this year, the dichotomy between preseason expectation and actual production is lining up to be especially striking.
The biggest reason behind Conley's leap is a fundamental one. Conley only played 56 games in 2015-16. Simply participating in 70-75 games will translate into a 2-3 round undervaluation for Conley, who had an ADP of 59.3 in ESPN Fantasy Leagues.
But Conley has also opened the season on fire from downtown. He's taking a career-high 5.0 3-pointers per game, hitting 2.4 of them for a .486 percentage. Conley can't sustain those levels -- his career-high in 3-pointers was in 2014-15, with 1.5 per game -- but he should stay on track for a career year in 3-point production.
If Conley combines that kind of production with career high-equivalent levels in assists (6.7 per game to date) and steals (1.3 per game) -- and if he can stay relatively healthy -- Conley should return top-30 value for the season.