Welcome back to another edition of the Insider cheat sheet, our weekly roundup of valuable fantasy basketball information taken from ESPN's group of NBA Insiders.
Every Friday throughout the season we'll provide a rundown of the most crucial bits of intel. You'll gain guidance from some of the biggest names in the game -- Amin Elhassan, Tom Haberstroh, Kevin Pelton, David Thorpe, Bradford Doolittle and others -- to take your fantasy teams to the next level. Here's what our experts are saying about the week ahead.
Don't add Beasley
"By comparing the performance in both leagues of players who go back and forth between the NBA and CBA, my translations take the air out of these inflated statistics," Pelton writes. "When adjusted to NBA standards, Beasley averaged the equivalent of 18.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per 36 minutes -- only slightly better than his career NBA marks of 19.0 points and 7.4 boards per 36."
Not too shabby, huh? Those numbers indicate he could be a strong contributor to a team hoping to make a playoff push in a tight Western Conference. However, I'm advising you to avoid picking up Beasley, no matter how tempting it may be, based on his overall fit with the franchise.
As Pelton notes, Beasley's overall game is fairly similar to two players already on the Houston roster: Terrence Jones and Josh Smith. He's likely to play more of a small forward role, which isn't his forte.
"Playing on the perimeter highlights Beasley's weakest skills," Pelton writes, "like his tendency to take long 2-pointers off the dribble, and minimizes the value of his rebounding."
I've long been a fan of Beasley -- owned in only 1 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues -- going back to his days at Kansas State. He's a versatile wing who can do a bit of everything, and I'm definitely rooting for him to have success. But based on the particular fit in Houston and where he is on the depth chart, Beasley isn't going to have the type of nightly production needed to make a difference in fantasy lineups.
Take your pick: Westbrook-Durant or Curry-Green?
With the Oklahoma City Thunder playing the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night, our group of NBA experts took a variety of looks at the two elite squads. ESPN NBA writer Tom Haberstroh focused primarily on the star duos of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant vs. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. All four have been phenomenal this season, but if it came down to it, who would you rather have on your team?
"When we step away from the box score statistics and look at the scoreboard, there really isn't much of a case for OKC's duo," Haberstroh writes. "With Curry and Green on the floor, the Warriors blitz opponents by 22.3 points per 100 possessions. With Durant and Westbrook, the Thunder outscore the opponent by 12.1, an impressive figure that looks tiny by comparison.
"Ultimately, the duos in OKC and Golden State are both horrifying to face in their own ways. But given their complementary nature and the evidence on the scoreboard, the Warriors duo reigns supreme. This isn't baseball, where chemistry and interaction effects don't apply. Curry has the best PER and the top RPM in the league, but Green's play has been outstanding on his own merits. Together, they make each other better. And now, they're the best two-man game in the league."
Much of Haberstroh's argument is based on the defensive prowess of Golden State, and that makes a ton of sense. But for fantasy purposes? Not as much. Based on the ESPN Player Rater, Curry (the No. 1 overall player) and Green (No. 13) have a combined average score of 17.15. Meanwhile, Durant (No. 3) and Westbrook (No. 4) boast an average of 17.28. It's that close. Green is arguably the most versatile player in fantasy, but his lack of blocks and trips to the free throw line is just enough to knock the Warriors duo below that of the Thunder for fantasy purposes.
Best season ever?
Sticking with the Thunder, ESPN Insider Bradford Doolittle investigated whether Curry's unbelievable season was actually the best in fantasy basketball history. In a word? Yes. According to Doolittle's formula, the Warriors guard ranks in the 99th percentile in fantasy history for points, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and steals (oh, and the 98th percentile in assists).
"If Curry could somehow also block more shots," Doolittle writes, "the NBA might have to disband."
Curry's 22.49 score on the Player Rater is the top mark by 5.52 points over James Harden's 17.93. It's the second-largest margin in fantasy history behind Larry Bird's performance in 1986 (8.49 margin). And in the end, when you don't factor in turnovers (which ESPN doesn't), Curry reigns supreme with a 20.76 score for 2016.
"The season isn't over, but there you have it," Doolittle writes. "No one has ever done it better, more consistently, or with more panache, than Curry. He's solved the problem of the hot hand. All you have to do is become so good that you never cool off. Then fantasy and reality merge into one."
Russell's long-term potential
Speaking of former No. 2 overall picks, one currently exploding on the scene is Los Angeles Lakers point guard D'Angelo Russell. The Ohio State product has scored at least 22 points in each of his last four games (as of March 4) -- including a 39-point outburst against Brooklyn on March 1 -- to quiet any naysayers from earlier in the season. At just 20 years old, Russell appears to have a major future in the league.
Is he worth picking up right now for fantasy? If not, is he someone you should target early in drafts next season?
Pelton and NBA draft analyst Chad Ford delved into the numbers to see whether Russell's recent production is here to stay.
"Looking at where he lands on your list of one-and-done point guards helps a little. He's behind both [Kyrie] Irving and John Wall -- both of whom are All-Stars -- and ahead of Derrick Rose (who was a superstar before getting hurt) and Mike Conley," Ford writes. "I think all the current evidence points to him being a potential All-Star but not necessarily a superstar. What do you think?"
"My SCHOENE projection system gives a similar assessment," Pelton writes. "Of the 10 players most similar to Russell at the same age, six became All-Stars: Irving, Gilbert Arenas, Jrue Holiday, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook and -- most intriguingly to Lakers fans -- Kobe Bryant.
"A couple of more young players similar to Russell, Bradley Beal and Brandon Knight could yet become All-Stars. So I'd give him a pretty good chance of reaching that level."
Russell is currently owned in 77 percent of leagues, and much of that ownership has come over the last week. That said, he's available in a good amount right now, so if you can snag him, you should. With the Lakers squarely out of the playoff race -- they're just hoping to not be the worst team in the NBA right now -- Russell will get big minutes, as the franchise wants to see their young talent develop.
Next season he could be even better with a full year under his belt. I'm high on Russell both right now and into the future.