Before Wednesday's Timofey Mozgov trade had even become official, my email inbox and Twitter notifications were already piling up with questions.
"How much does this help Jusuf Nurkic? Should I drop Gorgui Dieng for him?"
"Drop Mason Plumlee, pick up Nurkic?"
"Who's better: Rudy Gobert or Nurkic?"
Or, my personal favorite, "Should I drop Dwight Howard for Nurkic?"
Oh, the madness!
Without a doubt, the emergence of nearly a dozen young centers has been one of the best storylines in the NBA this season, but it's also thrown quite a curveball (or shall we say, air ball?) into the fantasy landscape.
Does Denver's trade of Mozgov to Cleveland boost the already-rising stock of Nurkic? You bet it does. But is Nurkic better than Gobert or Plumlee or Dieng? What about Cole Aldrich?
That is much more difficult to assess.
Truth is, each of their values fluctuate greatly from one week to the next, and, to be perfectly honest, from game to game. The matchups matter that much. For example, Gobert might be the top play one night when he faces an up-tempo Boston team that routinely gives up big games to opposing centers. But he'd rank much lower amongst his fellow centers when playing against an Indiana team that slows the pace and features a center with the defensive prowess of 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert.
So, in order to fairly rank the young centers, both where they stand today and where stack up over the rest of the season, I've separated things into three categories:
1. Current ranking: Based on how they've played over the past 1-3 weeks.
2. Upside: Based on which player has the highest ceiling this season.
3. Risk: Based on other factors, like battling others for playing time and major flaws in his game, that can prevent the player from reaching his upside this season.
To answer your question about which center ranks the best, here is where things stand entering Thursday.
(*1=most upside; **1=most risky)
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz (22.7% owned in ESPN leagues)
Upside (1): A defensive-specialist at 7-foot-1 who dominates as a rebounder and rim-protector. Shoots at a high efficiency (64 FG%) because most of his shots come at point-blank range.
Risk (4): He's still a backup whenever Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors are both healthy and in the lineup, which will limit his minutes unless a change is made in the rotation.
Pelton's Take: Seems to be improving defensively by the day. Now that he's proven he can play with Favors, I'd expect him to emerge as the No. 2 big man in Utah ahead of Kanter.
Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota Timberwolves (57.4% owned)
Upside (2): More well-rounded than any of the others. Won't hurt you in any category. Solid free throw shooter (78.8%) and shot blocker (1.7 bpg) who also racks up steals (1.0 spg).
Risk (5): Nikola Pekovic is expected to return soon, and he's a poor on-court pairing with Dieng, which means there's a good chance Dieng see less time on the court in the months ahead.
Pelton's Take: Productive enough to be useful in a reserve role, but owners have to be hoping Pekovic is either traded or out of the lineup due to injury.
Mason Plumlee, Brooklyn Nets (48.6% owned)
Upside (3): A big, efficient rebounder who inhales rebounds, Plumlee is also a capable shot-blocker. Put up huge numbers as the fill-in starter while Brook Lopez was out.
Risk (3): At the mercy of Nets coach Lionel Hollins' frequent rotation changes, he stands a chance to lose minutes to Lopez and could even move back to the bench.
Pelton's Take: The Nets are still figuring out how he fits next to Lopez, but at this point Plumlee seems like their most reliable option in the frontcourt.
Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets (17.4% owned)
Upside (5): Big-time rebounder and shot-blocker who now assumes Denver's starting role with Mozgov in Cleveland and JaVale McGee (leg) out indefinitely.
Risk (11): He only turned 20 this past August, is completely unproven as an everyday starter, and is prone to fouls and inconsistency.
Pelton's Take: The beneficiary of the Mozgov trade, he's going to get regular minutes and he will produce when he's out there. Now the question is how long he can play without foul trouble.
Cole Aldrich, New York Knicks (15.9% owned)
Upside (6): Former lottery pick who is getting an opportunity because he's one of the few healthy big men on the depleted Knicks roster.
Risk (2): A reserve for his first four NBA seasons, Aldrich may not be able to hold up if he plays 25-plus mpg on a regular basis. He becomes an afterthought when Carmelo Anthony and/or Amar'e Stoudemire are in the lineup.
Pelton's Take: The triangle offense does not seem to be a fit for Aldrich, who is spending too much time in the high post and has been rushing his opportunities down low, leading to poor accuracy.
Tyler Zeller, Boston Celtics (15.3% owned)
Upside (8): An athletic, highly efficient (62.3 FG%) big man who runs the floor well and fits nicely in Boston's high-paced offense. Finishes well around the rim.
Risk (7): While Zeller is the starter, fellow first-rounder Kelly Olynyk is right behind him, which means a rotation change is always possible.
Pelton's Take: Somewhat surprisingly, Zeller has seen his high shooting percentage hold up without Rajon Rondo. He's shooting 62.5 percent since the trade.
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers (45.2% owned)
Upside (4): The best athlete of the bunch, Noel has the potential to be among the league leaders in both blocks and steals. And with few other big men options, Philadelphia is invested in Noel and plays him big minutes (29.9 mpg).
Risk (9): Very raw offensively. Poor shooter from the floor (41.7%) and the free throw line (51.5%), and may be a ways from figuring it out.
Pelton's Take: I keep waiting for Noel to improve his field-goal percentage, and it keeps not happening. He prefers to use his left hand around the basket and simply isn't accurate with it.
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat (4.1% owned)
Upside (10): A shot-blocking specialist who can average 2-3 per game when given the playing time. He's also added weight and strength.
Risk (1): He hasn't proven himself at the NBA level for very long (30 NBA games), and could easily fall out of the rotation if he starts to struggle.
Pelton's Take: Playing so well it seems like it must be a fluke, but remember that Whiteside was dominant in his one season at the college level and might finally be living up to that potential in the NBA.
Alex Len, Phoenix Suns (6.0% owned)
Upside (9): A huge presence on the floor, the 7-foot-1 Len blocks shots (1.5 bpg) and pulls down rebounds (5.4 rpg) while shooting 55.6 percent from the floor.
Risk (8): With former starter Miles Plumlee still in the picture, Len splits time and averages only 20 mpg. He also rarely shoots (4.4 shots per game).
Pelton's Take: Has been blocking shots at a prolific rate lately (16 in 82 minutes over the last four games), which should help him firmly establish a hold on the starting center job ahead of Plumlee.
Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder (10.6% owned)
Upside (11):The toughest of the young centers, Adams starts and averages nearly 25 mpg. He rebounds well, blocks shots and shoots a high percentage (53.6 FG).
Risk (10): Surrounded by Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, who dominate the ball, Adams attempts fewer than six shots per game. He's also foul prone.
Pelton's Take: Westbrook's return put Adams in a smaller, more appropriate role, and he's shooting 57.0 percent from the field since then.
Kelly Olynyk, Boston Celtics (29.7% owned)
Upside (7): Highly efficient, with the ability to both pass (1.9 apg) and shoot from long-range (0.9 3pg). Sneaky good athlete who fits Boston's up-tempo offense.
Risk (6): He comes off the bench behind Zeller and has seen his minutes drop considerably in recent weeks. Injury-prone, and not a shot-blocker.
Pelton's Take: Aside from a drop in 3-point shooting -- meaningless over such a small sample -- Olynyk's production seems to be almost identical since he moved to the bench.
ESPN's #DailyTipOff: 1) While Kanter is out, Rudy Gobert keeps showing why he's one of the top young Cs around (11 pts/14 reb/5 blk on Wed.)
- Joe Kaiser (@JoeKaiserSports) January 8, 2015
Wiggins taking charge
No rookie entered the NBA this season with more fanfare than Minnesota's Andrew Wiggins, yet two months into his pro career he's looking like not only a future star in this league, but a fantasy star as well.
At 19 years and 319 days old, the talented Canadian swingman is the ninth-youngest player in the NBA, but he's already proven capable of living up to the lofty expectations, which only intensified when Ricky Rubio (ankle) and Kevin Martin (wrist) went down with early-season injuries.
Being asked to carry the load, Wiggins has quietly scored 20 points or more in seven of the last eight games and put together some crazy good numbers in virtually every category along the way.
As Rubio and Martin's return to the court draws near, the question on the minds of many is how much it will impact the Timberwolves' prized rookie. Will Wiggins' minutes take a big dip? Will he get fewer scoring opportunities?
I reached out to Pelton for his Insider's perspective, and here's what he had to say.
"I don't think his minutes will change much," he said. "He's the most important player on the team at this point.
"What could be an issue is he might play more SF next to Martin, and he's been much more impressive as a SG next to Shabazz Muhammad, creating easier opportunities against smaller defenders that have driven up his 2-point percentage and down his turnover rate."
That is certainly something to watch for, but it's not the only thing. Pelton raises another good point: "Rubio's return should help him get more transition baskets."
Any way you look at it, this is a great time to have the league's top rookie on your squad.
Five to Add:
J.J. Hickson, PF/C, Denver Nuggets - With Mozgov traded, the opportunity is suddenly there in Denver's thin frontcourt.
Eric Gordon, SG, New Orleans Pelicans - Has played over 32 minutes in each of his first two games back.
Jarrett Jack, PG, Brooklyn Nets - Deron Williams is injured... again.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Charlotte Hornets - Quietly tearing it up since Al Jefferson went down, with three double-doubles.
Quincy Acy, SF/PF, New York Knicks - Young, active rebounder who plays around 30 mpg anytime Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire sit.
Five to Drop:
Dion Waiters, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder - New team, same player. 1-9 FG, 4 points in Thunder debut.
Patrick Patterson, PF, Toronto Raptors - Slumping badly, having scored single-digits in four-straight games.
Timofey Mozgov, C, Cleveland Cavaliers - If he was losing minutes to Nurkic in Denver before the trade, opportunities will be more limited on the star-studded Cavs.
Jared Dudley, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks - He's back on the bench playing only 20-25 mpg behind Khris Middleton.
Courtney Lee, SG, Memphis Grizzlies - Managing very little other than points, and even that hasn't been good (11.2 ppg) in four games this month.