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Pitchers to stream Friday
Brandon Sproat has taken the hill twice in his MLB career, and both efforts were quality starts. His third comes Friday at Citi Field when the New York Mets host the Washington Nationals. Sproat fanned just 10 with four walks in his inaugural 12 innings, but this start sets up for more punchouts and fewer free passes. Over the past month, the Nationals sport the sixth-highest strikeout and walk rates facing right-handers.
Luis Severino is wrapping up a disappointing campaign. Much has been made of his struggles at home, but the problem with Sutter Health Park is its generosity to homers, and Severino sports a reasonable 1.2 HR/9 in Sacramento. The righty's issue is a precipitous drop in swinging strikes, both home and away. The Athletics open a road set with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, generating a chance for Severino to rack up a few extra punchouts facing the offense with the seventh-highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest wOBA with a righty on the hill for the previous month.
Clayton Kershaw who announced Thursday that he is retiring after this season, posted a rare clunker in his last outing, yielding four earned runs in only three frames to the San Francisco Giants. He has a chance for retribution less than a week later, this time at home when the Los Angeles Dodgers welcome in the Giants for a weekend set. Last Saturday notwithstanding, the Giants check in with the second-lowest wOBA and sixth-highest strikeout rate versus lefties this season.
Mitch Keller's record is 6-14, but he has logged 17 quality starts, tied for 12th-most in MLB. This is not a call for replacing wins with quality in category scoring (both have flaws); it's pointing out that Keller has pitched better than his record indicates, thus warrants streaming consideration for favorable matchups. The Pirates hosting the Athletics is an example. The visitors experience a park downgrade, in cooler temperatures in which they're accustomed to playing.
Pitchers to avoid Friday
Something has to give. Trevor Rogers has yielded only three homers in 100 2/3 innings, and the New York Yankees lead the league in home run rate. Rogers is slated to take the hill in Camden Yards a week after he had to leave early with a blood blister on his toe. The Baltimore Orioles cleared Rogers for Friday's start, but the chance the blister returns is sufficient enough to avoid Rogers and not run the risk of his home-run luck running out.
Hitters to stream Friday
The Miami Marlins are relishing the role of spoiler, playing .500 ball over the past month, including wins over the Detroit Tigers, Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays. Their bats should be in good shape when they return home to take on Tyler Mahle and the Texas Rangers. It will be Mahle's MLB first start in over three months, and even if he's effective, his workload will be limited. The back end of the Rangers bullpen has been solid, but the middle and long relievers have been suspect. The Los Angeles Angels are in Coors Field, so they're clear streaming options, but the Marlins also merit consideration with Agustin Ramirez and Jakob Marsee heading the list.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.