Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart
Pitchers to stream on Thursday
If "Biggest Surprise" were handed out during the MLB award season, Quinn Priester would be a leading candidate. Relegated to Triple-A by the Boston Red Sox to open the season, the Milwaukee Brewers acquired Priester in early April, mostly out of desperation for a healthy arm. Though, they must have seen something in the 25-year-old right-hander. Their instincts were rewarded with a 13-2 record with a 3.25 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 146 2/3 innings. The Brewers are in the driver's seat in the NL Central, as well as holding a slim lead over the Philadelphia Phillies for best record in the senior circuit. Priester faces the Los Angeles Angels at home. The visitors are averaging the fewest runs per game over the last month.
Identifying a second, let alone three streaming candidates on Thursday's 10-game docket is a chore. On another day, Brayan Bello would not make the cut, but he made it based on his overall body of work, and the favorable pitching conditions when the Red Sox host the Athletics Thursday afternoon. Bello's ERA since the break is 3.30, with a 1.15 WHIP. However, over his last three efforts, he posted a 5.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Look for him to get back on track in a game the Red Sox need more than the Athletics.
Instead of offering an unreliable third streaming option, this is a great slate to fortify pitching with a reliever. Here are the best closers with Thursday games, all available in at least half of ESPN leagues: Cade Smith (Cleveland Guardians), Andrew Kittredge (Chicago Cubs), David Bednar (New York Yankees), Pete Fairbanks (Tampa Bay Rays), Abner Uribe (Brewers), Will Vest (Detroit Tigers), Kenley Jansen (Angels) and Keegan Akin (Baltimore Orioles).
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.56 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Rays hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: A+ | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.07 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.07 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.80 ERA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.33 ERA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.25 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
With scant pitchers to pick up, Thursday is also a good opportunity to use fungible reserve spots on batters. Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies are the clear choice as they wrap up their series in Coors Field. Jakob Marsee and Agustin Ramirez lead the way for the visitors with Mickey Moniak and Blaine Crim options for the home team.
Cade Povich has an issue yielding homers and the Yankees dig hitting the long ball. Camden Yards isn't as generous as Yankee Stadium, but with the Orioles entertaining the Yankees, Ben Rice, Trent Grisham and Ryan McMahon are all Yankee lefty swingers capable of dropping a souvenir in the right field seats.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Miami Marlins batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .359 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A | Park: A+ | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Cleveland Guardians batters vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants LHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: A | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .283 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .286 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Spencer Torkelson | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.16 EV
One reason to bet this: Torkelson has recently seen a sizable gain in his exit velocity. Compare his 96.5-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his season-long 90-mph mark.
Willy Adames | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.21 EV
One reason to bet this: Adames has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4 mph to 92.0 mph in the last week's worth of games.
Lawrence Butler | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Butler has seen a significant gain in his recent exit velocity on flyballs. Compare his 103.5-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his season-long figure of 94.0 mph.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Shane Baz | OVER 4.5 K (-130)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.12 EV
One reason to bet this: Mike Estabrook, expected to be in charge of the strike zone today, profiles as a huge "pitcher's umpire."
Yoshinobu Yamamoto | UNDER 7.5 K (-140)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.66 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 10 park in baseball for suppressing strikeouts, per my projections, is Dodger Stadium.
Randy Vasquez | UNDER 2.5 K (+105)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.28 EV
One reason to bet this: The New York Mets have six hitters in their projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Vasquez in this matchup.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bet
Athletics @ Red Sox | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $4.34 EV