Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
Thursday's docket is light with just six games, plus the only five starting pitchers with ESPN rostership below 50% are the bottom five on the slate. As such, let's take a bit of liberty with the cutoff and start with Ryan Pepiot, whose rostership is a couple ticks over 50%. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians in the first game of a four-game set. The right-hander already set career highs in innings and starts. His numbers are nearly identical to last season, but because he spent half the year in a home venue favoring hitters much more than Tropicana Field, he's performed a bit better. During the past month, the Guardians have struggled facing right-handed pitching, sporting the lowest wOBA and second highest strikeout rate.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.95 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.99 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Temperature: C- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.12 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.92 ERA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Rays hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.85 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Royals hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Temperature: C- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.75 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Both offenses in the Kansas City Royals-Los Angeles Angels contest line up for productive evenings. The Angels' Zach Neto, Jo Adell and Logan O'Hoppe are in great spots facing Noah Cameron, returning after a skipped start (due to fatigue) in place of Seth Lugo, who is being skipped due to back tightness. On the other side, the Royals Jac Caglianone and Mike Yastrzemski have a chance to tee off facing Kyle Hendricks.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals batters vs. Angels pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .335 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels LHB vs. Royals pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .326 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Los Angeles Dodgers RHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .265 wOBA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .275 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers LHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .284 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Christopher Morel | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.03 EV
One reason to bet this: In the majors, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.
Gabriel Arias | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.14 EV
One reason to bet this: Arias' ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 11.9% to 15.9%.
Kyle Manzardo | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.88 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system sees George M. Steinbrenner Field as the fourth-best stadium in MLB for lefty home runs.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Ranger Suarez | UNDER 4.5 K (-100)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.28 EV
One reason to bet this: Suarez's fastball velocity has dropped 1.3 mph this year (89.5 mph) below where it was last season (90.8 mph).
Logan Allen | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.51 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs). This game is forecast to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83 degrees.
Kyle Hendricks | OVER 2.5 K (+105)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.01 EV
One reason to bet this: Hendricks has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing six opposite-handed bats today.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Yankees @ Astros | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $11.22 EV
Phillies @ Brewers | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $3.14 EV
Angels @ Royals | NRFI (+110)
Projection: 48% chance of NO RUN with a $0.57 EV