Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream Friday
Ian Seymour fanned eight and walked one over five innings in each of his first two starts. He's the top-ranked streamer on Thursday's slate when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians. Seymour takes on the lineup with the third-lowest wOBA and an above-average strikeout rate with a lefty on the hill.
Considering David Peterson's home venue is Citi Field, one of the best pitching parks in the league, it's surprising that his road ERA is better than his home mark. It's not a sample size anomaly; his underlying skills and xFIP are nearly identical in both instances. The Great American Ballpark is one of the better hitting venues, so Peterson will be challenged when the New York Mets visit the Cincinnati Reds. However, even at home, the Reds sport a below-average offense facing left-handers.
Jose Soriano is 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last four outings. He may have incurred a little luck to sport such low ratios, but 25 strikeouts with just seven walks spanning 24 1/3 innings indicate the good fortune was earned. Soriano is set to face the Athletics in Anaheim. It will be a matchup of strength versus strength, as Soriano sports the fifth-lowest home run rate among qualified pitchers and only three teams are more reliant on homers to score than the Athletics.
There are no pitchers to avoid on the slate, so let's add a couple of bonus streamers. Quinn Priester continues to be one of the season's biggest surprises with a 3.28 ERA, though the estimators tab it closer to 4.00. But that's still below league average. The Milwaukee Brewers righty lines up for a favorable matchup in the Steel City against a Pittsburgh Pirates squad averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB.
The Boston Red Sox gave Payton Tolle extra rest after he made his MLB debut last Friday. The rookie matched Paul Skenes pitch for pitch, but he was still saddled with the loss, despite yielding just two runs in 5 1/3 innings while fanning eight. Next up is a road date in the desert with an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup producing at an above-average clip despite dealing some key pieces at the deadline. But they strike out at an above-average rate, and Tolle could take advantage with his deception.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.82 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.92 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.96 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Padres hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.61 ERA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Mets hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.42 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.35 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Friday
It appears Mason Barnett will finish the season in the Athletics rotation despite posting a 5.83 ERA and 1.56 ERA with Triple-A Las Vegas. To be fair, that is one of the toughest places to pitch, but the 24-year-old walked 60 in 117 1/3 innings, far too generous considering he was facing a lot of younger batters. Barnett did not issue any free passes in his MLB debut last week, but he only fanned one in four frames while surrendering eight hits and five runs. Angels batters are in a favorable spot, led by Zach Neto, Jo Adell and Logan O'Hoppe.
Today's best matchups for hitters
San Diego Padres batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .359 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .353 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Seattle Mariners LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .262 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .275 wOBA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants RHB vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Austin Hedges | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.09 EV
One reason to bet this: George M. Steinbrenner Field has the shortest fences out of all MLB stadiums.
Gabriel Arias | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.89 EV
One reason to bet this: George M. Steinbrenner Field has the shortest fences out of all MLB stadiums.
Teoscar Hernandez | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.09 EV
One reason to bet this: This year, Hernandez's 12.4 Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 79th percentile among his peers.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Logan Gilbert | UNDER 6.5 K (-120)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.85 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts). At 85 degrees, this game is projected to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate.
Pablo Lopez | OVER 3.5 K (-150)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.98 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts this game to have the most suitable pitching conditions on today's slate.
David Peterson | UNDER 4.5 K (-125)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.47 EV
One reason to bet this: Out of all starting pitchers, Peterson's 2025 fastball spin rate of 2,127 rpm ranks only in the 16th percentile.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Nationals @ Cubs | NRFI (+110)
Projection: 49% chance of NO RUN with a $2.42 EV
Dodgers @ Orioles | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $0.40 EV
Giants @ Cardinals | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $1.94 EV