Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 29, 2025, 07:13 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.7	Carlos Rodon	L	@CWS	96.9%	-215	8.5	63%	5.9	2.1	6.3
13.2	Blake Snell	L	ARI	90.0%	-190	8.5	65%	5.5	1.8	6.3
12.7	Ranger Suarez	L	ATL	83.1%	-185	9.5	71%	5.9	2.3	5.8
12.3	Paul Skenes	R	@BOS	99.9%	-110	8.5	62%	5.7	2.5	6.5
11.3	Freddy Peralta	R	@TOR	97.0%	+120	7.5	65%	5.6	2.4	5.7
11.3	Robbie Ray	L	BAL	91.5%	-160	7.5	52%	5.7	2.2	5.5
11.1	Eury Perez	R	@NYM	37.9%	+145	7.5	49%	5.1	1.7	5.1
11.0	George Kirby	R	@CLE	85.8%	-160	7.5	54%	5.6	2.5	5.7
9.7	Dean Kremer	R	@SF	13.6%	+135	7.5	48%	5.7	2.4	4.9
9.5	Jonah Tong	R	MIA	20.6%	-175	7.5	51%	5.3	2.2	5.0
9.5	Nestor Cortes	L	@MIN	15.6%	-130	8.5	65%	5.4	2.7	5.3
9.3	Shane Bieber	R	MIL	56.1%	-145	7.5	35%	5.2	2.4	5.3
9.1	Seth Lugo	R	DET	66.1%	-125	8.5	59%	5.9	3.1	5.1
9.1	Zac Gallen	R	@LAD	68.2%	+160	8.5	35%	5.5	2.6	5.5
9.0	Cristian Javier	R	LAA	7.9%	-180	8.5	52%	4.7	2.0	5.0
8.9	Jeffrey Springs	L	TEX	17.7%	-135	10.5	49%	5.2	2.5	4.8
8.2	Zack Littell	R	STL	31.0%	-130	8.5	51%	5.4	3.0	5.0
7.8	Tyler Anderson	L	@HOU	5.0%	+150	8.5	48%	5.4	2.8	4.9
7.5	Yoendrys Gomez	R	NYY	1.3%	+180	8.5	37%	4.9	2.6	5.5
7.0	Logan Allen	L	SEA	4.6%	+135	7.5	46%	5.2	3.0	4.9
6.8	Adrian Houser	R	@WSH	17.1%	-150	9.5	57%	5.4	3.1	4.2
6.5	Jack Leiter	R	@ATH	17.1%	+115	10.5	51%	4.8	2.7	4.9
6.3	Mitchell Parker	L	TB	3.8%	+125	9.5	43%	5.1	3.0	4.5
5.7	Bryce Elder	R	@PHI	2.3%	+155	9.5	29%	5.3	3.3	4.8
5.6	Matthew Liberatore	L	@CIN	17.3%	+110	8.5	49%	4.6	2.9	4.3
5.3	Zebby Matthews	R	SD	3.7%	+110	8.5	35%	4.8	3.1	4.9
5.3	Cade Horton	R	@COL	34.9%	-235	10.5	65%	4.8	3.8	5.1
4.9	Payton Tolle	L	PIT	4.8%	-110	8.5	38%	4.8	3.4	4.9
4.9	Chris Paddack	R	@KC	5.6%	+105	8.5	41%	5.2	3.4	3.8
-2.9	German Marquez	R	CHC	0.4%	+195	10.5	35%	4.6	5.9	4.1

Pitchers to stream on Friday

Six of Dean Kremer's last 10 efforts were quality starts, though he's coming off a rough outing where he yielded three homers to the Houston Astros. Even with allowing six earned runs in five frames in that contest, Kremer's ERA over the past 10 starts is 3.61 with a 1.06 WHIP. With the Baltimore Orioles visiting the San Francisco Giants, Kremer is in a great spot to rebound, facing an offense with the third highest strikeout rate versus righties over the last month.
Eury Perez snapped out of a mini rut in his last outing, recording a quality start in a win against the Toronto Blue Jays. Next up for the Miami Marlins righty is a road date in Citi Field against the New York Mets. It isn't an ideal matchup since the Mets have been productive facing right-handed pitching, but Perez's ability to limit traffic on the bases and keep the ball in the yard puts him in play.
Like most Athletics pitchers, Jeffrey Springs' home splits are worse than his road numbers, but his underlying skills are nearly the same, except for allowing more homers at home. We're approaching the time of the year when the evening temperature in Sacramento drops, which should help limit homers compared to the summer. Springs is slated to take the hill in Sutter Health Park against a Texas Rangers offense with a below average home run rate facing southpaws.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

Seth Lugo yielded two homers in seven of his last nine outings, including the last four. His strikeouts fell while his walks rose in this stretch, resulting in a 6.70 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. It won't get easier with a home date against the Detroit Tigers. For well over a year, Lugo merited starting every time he took the hill, but now he needs to piece together a few solid efforts to reenter the fantasy circle of trust.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Friday

It has been hit or miss for Bryce Elder. Since the break, he registered a 7.11 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, but that seven-game span included three quality starts. The Atlanta Braves visit the Philadelphia Phillies, making it likely that Elder struggles. J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos, Max Kepler and Bryson Stott all make the streaming cut.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Juan Soto | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.66 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system estimates Soto's true offensive skill to be .409, indicating that he has had bad luck this year given the .033 difference between that figure and his actual .376 wOBA.

Colton Cowser | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.50 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15.9 mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Zebby Matthews | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.42 EV
One reason to bet this: Matthews has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up an 11.45 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 9.54 -- a 1.91 K/9 difference.

Paul Skenes | UNDER 6.5 K (+115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.62 EV
One reason to bet this: Skenes' fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this season (97.5 mph) below where it was last season (98.9 mph).

Cristian Javier | OVER 5.5 K (-100)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.96 EV
One reason to bet this: Javier will have the handedness advantage over six opposing hitters in this matchup.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

D-Backs @ Dodgers | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $3.62 EV

Yankees @ White Sox | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $3.04 EV

Rays @ Nationals | NRFI (+105)
Projection: 50% chance of NO RUN with a $2.68 EV