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Pitchers to stream on Tuesday
The last time Edward Cabrera pitched, his rostership was just below the 50% cutoff for streamers and rising. However, the Miami Marlins right-hander posted a rare subpar outing, yielding five runs in 5 1/3 in a loss to the Cleveland Guardians, dropping his rostership a few points. Look for a rebound when the Marlins host the St. Louis Cardinals. Cabrera squares off with an offense sporting the league's lowest wOBA facing righties over the last month.
Max Scherzer may no longer be a dominant force, but the veteran is getting the job done with four straight quality starts, fueling the Toronto Blue Jays rise to the top of the AL East. He's in a great spot to extend his streak with a road date against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Scherzer takes on the team averaging the fewest runs per game in the majors.
On June 8, Jacob Lopez's ERA was 8.31 while his WHIP was 1.79. Even so, The Athletics moved him to the rotation, and the results have been dazzling. Over his last dozen outings, Lopez is 6-2 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, fully supported with 77 strikeouts to only 20 walks in 64 1/3 frames. Next up is a road contest with the Minnesota Twins and a lineup that has been in a rut since dealing a couple of key pieces.
Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday
Bryce Miller is slated to return from a lengthy absence recovering from elbow inflammation. He hasn't toed a major league rubber since early June. Miller compiled 13 1/3 innings on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Tacoma. The righty fanned 15 while issuing three walks, but he yielded four home runs. His first game back is against the potent Philadelphia Phillies in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. There is still a quarter of the season remaining, which is enough time to get a handful of good starts from Miller, especially at home in T-Mobile Park. However, avoiding him on Tuesday is the safe play.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Brewers hitters (Game 1)
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.60 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Brewers hitters (Game 2)
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.76 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.90 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.81 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.83 ERA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.29 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Tuesday
Last time out, Kai-Wei Teng surrendered six earned runs in just 1 2/3 innings to the San Diego Padres. Teng faces them again, this time in Petco Park. Streaming Padres hitters isn't the call due to their success against Teng a week ago; it's because the 26-year-old right-hander yielded 11 earned runs in 10 major league innings this season and 12 in 11 frames last season. Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Ramon Laureano and Ryan O'Hearn should benefit the most with Teng on the hill.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Los Angeles Dodgers batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .380 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .363 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays LHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .338 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Kansas City Royals batters vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .260 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Cubs pitchers (Game 1)
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .271 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Brewers pitchers (Game 2)
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Yainer Diaz | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Comerica Park has the fourth-shortest average fence height among all parks.
Teoscar Hernandez | OVER 0.5 HR (+325)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.15 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.8 mph in this game, best of the day for hitters.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Jacob Lopez | UNDER 5.5 K (-110)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.33 EV
One reason to bet this: Projected catcher Shea Langeliers grades out as a weak pitch framer, per my projections.
Tomoyuki Sugano | UNDER 3.5 K (-110)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.17 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system sees Fenway Park as the second-worst park in baseball for strikeouts.
Carlos Rodon | UNDER 6.5 K (-155)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.41 EV
One reason to bet this: The Rays have seven batters in their projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Rodon today.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Dodgers @ Rockies | YRFI (-165)
Projection: 65% chance of RUN with a $8.07 EV
Athletics @ Twins | YRFI (+110)
Projection: 49% chance of RUN with a $3.57 EV
Cardinals @ Marlins | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $2.96 EV