Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 20, 2025, 06:53 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.8	Jesus Luzardo	L	SEA	75.7%	-145	8.5	59%	5.9	2.2	6.9
11.8	Framber Valdez	L	@DET	98.9%	-130	8.5	58%	6.1	2.6	5.9
10.7	Luis Castillo	R	@PHI	95.1%	+120	8.5	41%	6.0	2.8	5.8
10.5	Chris Bassitt	R	@PIT	66.3%	-165	8.5	63%	5.8	2.6	5.5
10.3	JP Sears	L	SF	6.3%	-160	8.5	58%	5.5	2.3	5.0
9.4	Kodai Senga	R	@WSH	84.6%	-185	8.5	63%	5.3	2.6	5.4
9.2	Landen Roupp	R	@SD	9.6%	+135	8.5	42%	5.2	2.1	4.9
9.1	Bailey Ober	R	ATH	55.6%	-125	9.5	55%	5.3	2.8	5.4
9.0	Noah Cameron	L	TEX	49.2%	-110	8.5	53%	5.6	2.8	4.8
8.2	Andre Pallante	R	@MIA	4.0%	+105	8.5	57%	5.4	2.5	4.2
8.1	Drew Rasmussen	R	NYY	66.7%	-120	8.5	53%	4.2	1.7	4.1
7.9	Yusei Kikuchi	L	CIN	68.9%	-135	8.5	52%	5.5	3.2	5.6
7.7	Parker Messick	L	@ARI	0.0%	+105	8.5	52%	5.2	2.7	4.5
7.6	Colin Rea	R	MIL	10.9%	-105	6.5	43%	5.4	2.7	4.6
7.4	Sandy Alcantara	R	STL	39.4%	-125	8.5	43%	5.4	3.1	5.0
7.5	Charlie Morton	R	HOU	9.6%	+110	8.5	42%	5.5	3.1	5.1
6.9	Brandon Pfaadt	R	CLE	59.5%	-125	8.5	47%	5.1	2.8	4.7
6.7	Cam Schlittler	R	@TB	5.6%	EVEN	8.5	48%	5.2	3.0	4.3
6.5	Nick Martinez	R	@LAA	25.4%	+115	8.5	48%	3.9	1.9	4.9
6.3	Jacob Misiorowski	R	@CHC	76.5%	-115	6.5	37%	4.9	2.7	4.3
5.5	Johan Oviedo	R	TOR	0.1%	+140	8.5	47%	4.8	3.0	4.1
5.4	Kumar Rocker	R	@KC	2.2%	-110	8.5	37%	4.5	2.6	4.0
5.2	Brad Lord	R	NYM	1.6%	+155	8.5	56%	4.9	3.3	4.4
5.1	Martin Perez	L	@ATL	1.9%	+155	9.5	45%	4.6	2.9	4.2
4.3	J.T. Ginn	R	@MIN	0.9%	+105	9.5	44%	4.6	2.9	4.2
0.3	Hurston Waldrep	R	CWS	44.3%	-185	9.5	67%	2.5	2.8	2.8
7.8	Shohei Ohtani	R	@COL	99.9%	-310	11.5	57%	5.3	3.0	5.3
-8.0	Tanner Gordon	R	LAD	0.1%	+250	11.5	33%	4.1	7.2	3.5

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

The Atlanta Braves are playing out the string. Injuries have derailed their season, but the silver lining is they will get an extended look at pitching prospect Hurston Waldrep. The 23-year-old right-hander is slated to make his fourth career start when he takes on the Chicago White Sox. Waldrep is making a case to be August rookie of the month, if not pitcher of the month. In three outings, he posted a 1.02 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, with 17 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings. The White Sox sport the second lowest wOBA versus righties, but to be fair, they've been much better over the last month.
Sandy Alcantara began the month with a pair of clunkers, yielding 11 earned runs in 12 frames. However, he rebounded last time with a quality start in Fenway Park, limiting the Boston Red Sox to just one run over six stanzas, fanning seven while issuing just one free pass. With the Miami Marlins hosting the St. Louis Cardinals, Alcantara is in a good spot to remain effective, facing the least productive offense over the last month. Furthermore, the Cardinals will be without Brendan Donovan, who is sidelined with a left groin strain.
In July, Noah Cameron punched out 33 batters in 29 1/3 innings. However, in three August starts, the rookie southpaw racked up just seven strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings, but since he continues to limit walks and keeps the ball in the yard, Cameron continues to be effective with an August ERA of 2.60 ERA. He's due for a visit from the regression monster, but a favorable home date with the Texas Rangers should delay the damage. The Rangers are one of the least potent offenses facing lefties, in large part due to a high strikeout rate.

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

Luis Castillo tends to give up home runs in bunches. Earlier in the year, he surrendered eight long balls over four starts, and he's yielded six dingers over his past three outings. While this trend can reverse at any time -- Castillo has served up just four homers in his other 18 efforts -- the righty is a risk when the Seattle Mariners wrap up a series in Citizens Bank Park with the Philadelphia Phillies. Castillo experiences a big park downgrade along with facing one of the most powerful lineups in the league.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

The White Sox will send Martin Perez to the hill in Truist Park, giving appeal to Braves' batters. The White Sox demoted Sean Burke earlier in the week and the club opted to give Aaron Civale a couple of extra days, so they'll open with Perez, then finish out with a subpar bullpen. Jurickson Profar, Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna and Drake Baldwin are the main beneficiaries.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Yandy Diaz | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.02 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the fourth-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.

Gabriel Arias | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past week, Arias' 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.4%.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Cam Schlittler | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.54 EV
One reason to bet this: Fairchild grades out as a "hitter's Umpire" and is scheduled to be umping today.

Hurston Waldrep | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.97 EV
One reason to bet this: According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the third-most favorable for hitting on the slate.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Cardinals @ Marlins | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $9.35 EV

White Sox @ Braves | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $6.81 EV

Brewers @ Cubs | YRFI (+135)
Projection: 43% chance of RUN with a $1.31 EV