Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 1, 2025, 07:34 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.2	Logan Gilbert	R	TEX	96.8%	-175	7.5	66%	5.9	2.1	6.5
13.7	David Peterson	L	SF	61.1%	-145	7.5	60%	6.0	1.9	5.9
13.0	Carlos Rodon	L	@MIA	96.8%	-175	7.5	58%	5.9	2.2	6.2
12.5	Nick Pivetta	R	STL	93.9%	-165	7.5	62%	5.6	2.1	5.9
11.6	Robbie Ray	L	@NYM	91.6%	+120	7.5	40%	5.6	1.9	5.6
11.0	Joe Ryan	R	@CLE	98.2%	+105	7.5	51%	5.5	2.5	5.9
10.9	Ranger Suarez	L	DET	84.4%	-155	8.5	52%	5.7	2.5	5.7
10.4	Kevin Gausman	R	KC	89.0%	-160	7.5	56%	5.8	2.7	5.5
10.1	Jack Flaherty	R	@PHI	76.7%	+130	8.5	48%	5.4	2.7	6.6
9.6	Cade Horton	R	BAL	12.2%	-160	7.5	58%	5.4	2.5	5.1
9.0	Michael Wacha	R	@TOR	21.3%	+135	7.5	44%	5.6	2.6	4.7
9.0	Jose Quintana	L	@WSH	13.9%	-150	8.5	61%	5.6	2.9	5.0
8.7	Jacob Lopez	L	ARI	5.2%	--	--	59%	5.0	2.5	5.2
8.6	Gavin Williams	R	MIN	29.5%	-125	7.5	49%	5.0	2.4	5.5
8.5	Brady Singer	R	ATL	32.8%	-150	9.5	60%	5.5	3.1	5.4
8.3	Shane Baz	R	LAD	39.6%	+125	9.5	48%	5.4	2.7	4.9
8.1	Hunter Brown	R	@BOS	99.0%	-135	7.5	54%	5.2	3.1	5.8
7.8	Janson Junk	R	NYY	8.5%	+145	7.5	42%	5.1	2.4	4.1
7.5	Jack Leiter	R	@SEA	20.1%	+145	7.5	34%	4.9	2.4	5.1
7.4	Matthew Liberatore	L	@SD	23.2%	+140	7.5	38%	5.0	2.3	4.2
7.1	Clayton Kershaw	L	@TB	25.7%	-150	9.5	52%	4.8	2.3	3.7
6.5	Trevor Rogers	L	@CHC	52.6%	+135	7.5	42%	5.1	2.7	4.5
6.1	Shane Smith	R	@LAA	6.0%	+120	9.5	53%	4.5	2.7	4.6
6.1	Mitchell Parker	L	MIL	5.1%	+125	8.5	39%	5.2	2.9	4.2
5.2	Cooper Criswell	R	HOU	0.0%	+115	7.5	46%	4.6	2.9	4.1
5.1	Bryce Elder	R	@CIN	2.0%	+125	9.5	40%	5.2	3.6	5.2
5.1	Tyler Anderson	L	CWS	8.1%	-145	9.5	47%	5.3	3.6	4.5
4.7	Anthony DeSclafani	R	@ATH	0.4%	--	--	41%	3.8	2.2	3.7
1.2	Andrew Heaney	L	@COL	12.0%	-150	11.5	63%	4.6	4.9	4.7
-6.2	Antonio Senzatela	R	PIT	0.2%	+125	11.5	37%	4.5	7.0	3.9

Pitchers to stream on Friday

For the season, the Arizona Diamondbacks offense facing left-handers has been league average. However, look for the production to fall with Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor reunited in the Pacific Northwest. The Athletics and Diamondbacks open a series in Sacramento with Jacob Lopez taking the hill for the home team. The southpaw sports an impressive 27.5% strikeout rate, helping mitigate a high 9.8% walk rate. Homers are an issue, but he'll face a lineup lacking two big bats.
In what may be a harbinger of a strong stretch run, Gavin Williams emerged from the break with a pair of quality starts. He fanned only three last time, but he punched out 11 the prior outing, giving him 14 strikeouts over his last 13 frames. Next up is a familiar foe with the Minnesota Twins visiting the Cleveland Guardians. Over the last month, the Twins recorded the fourth lowest wOBA facing right-handers, buoyed by an above average strikeout rate.
It's risky trusting a rookie pitcher coming off the IL without the benefit of a rehab assignment but Shane Smith has looked solid in bullpen sessions, and there is strikeout upside when the Chicago White Sox open a series in Anaheim against the Los Angeles Angels and a lineup punching out 25.4% of the time versus right-handers.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

Trevor Rogers is one of the season's best stories, posting a 1.49 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in eight starts, spanning 48 1/3 innings. Rogers has benefited from a .183 BABIP and 85.6% left on base mark, but his 3.76 xFIP and 3.91 SIERA indicate he'll survive a visit from the regression monster and still be better than league average. What isn't safe is a road date with the Chicago Cubs and one of the league's most potent offenses. The smart play is leaving Rogers on the bench for this Wrigley Field matinee.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Friday

Bryce Elder continues to struggle for the Atlanta Braves. Over his last seven outings, the right-hander registered an unsightly 10.50 ERA and 2.47 WHIP. A visit to Great American Ballpark is not the ideal matchup to get on track. Assuming they remember the game gets underway at 12:40 p.m. ET, the Cincinnati Reds bats line up for a productive afternoon. Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson and Austin Hays are the top beneficiaries.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Max Kepler | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the second-shallowest in the league.

Sean Murphy | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% -- 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's seventh-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Trevor Rogers | UNDER 4.5 K (-130)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.65 EV
One reason to bet this: Per my projections, the team with the third-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Cubs, with a 19.8% underlying K%.

Cade Horton | OVER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.52 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system sees Wrigley Field as the fourth-best park in the league for strikeouts.

Bryce Elder | UNDER 4.5 K (-120)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.31 EV
One reason to bet this: Given the 0.35 discrepancy between Elder's 7.52 K/9 and his 7.18 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts. He figures to see negative regression in future games.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bet

Orioles @ Cubs | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $0.80 EV