Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Thursday

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 31, 2025, 06:55 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart | Start a new league

STARTING PITCHERS FOR THURSDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.2	George Kirby	R	TEX	83.2%	-160	7.5	63%	5.8	2.3	5.5
11.4	Ryan Pepiot	R	@NYY	59.9%	-105	8.5	57%	5.4	2.2	5.7
8.9	Andrew Abbott	L	ATL	83.4%	-160	9.5	61%	5.4	2.9	5.2
8.6	Kumar Rocker	R	@SEA	7.5%	+135	7.5	37%	4.9	2.2	4.8
6.5	Marcus Stroman	R	TB	4.0%	-115	8.5	43%	5.1	2.7	4.1
4.8	Carlos Carrasco	R	@CIN	0.5%	+135	9.5	39%	4.6	3.2	4.5

Pitchers to stream on Thursday

There are slim pickings on a three-game slate, but Kumar Rocker would likely make the cut with a deeper schedule. The young righty struggled with walks last time, but for the most part, he's been decent in that department considering he's coming off Tommy John surgery where control and command may take a bit to fully regain previous levels. With the Texas Rangers visiting the Seattle Mariners, this is one of the few times Rocker will enjoy a park upgrade. The Mariners are league average, but for the past month they've been striking out 25% of the time facing right-handers.
Ryan Pepiot is rostered in just over half of ESPN leagues but considering there are only six starting pitchers from which to choose, we'll bend the rules and highlight him for his road tilt with the New York Yankees. Considering the Tampa Bay Rays are playing their home games in a replica of Yankee Stadium, Pepiot shouldn't be intimidated pitching in the Bronx. Until someone steps up in the absence of Aaron Judge, the Yankees lineup is not to be feared. Pepiot recorded a quality start in four of his past five outings.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Thursday

Let's be practical; anyone in action on Thursday is in play. That said, those first to the free agent pool should pick up as many Cincinnati Reds hitters as possible. The Atlanta Braves are so desperate for pitching that they acquired Carlos Carrasco to fortify their rotation. How bad is Carrasco? The pitching-starved Yankees let him go for cash considerations. The once formidable right-hander posted a 5.91 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 32 frames, and that followed recording a 6.18 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the prior two years. Elly De La Cruz is the only Reds batter rostered in more than 43% of ESPN leagues. Keep in mind Cincinnati acquired Ke'Bryan Hayes, mostly for his glove, but he should benefit from a park upgrade.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.65 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 84 degrees.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.05 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 84 degrees.

Austin Wells | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $0.25 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 84 degrees.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Andrew Abbott | UNDER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.48 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.8 mph in this matchup, the strongest of the day for batters.

Ryan Pepiot | UNDER 5.5 K (+115)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.15 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 84 degrees.

Kumar Rocker | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.99 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the second-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bet

Braves @ Reds | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $6.56 EV