Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 21, 2025, 03:57 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
13.2	Logan Gilbert	R	MIL	95.6%	60%	5.8	2.2	6.3
12.9	Cristopher Sanchez	L	BOS	93.8%	62%	6.0	2.3	5.9
12.4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	MIN	99.3%	56%	5.9	2.3	6.1
12.3	Matthew Boyd	L	KC	83.0%	73%	5.6	2.1	5.3
12.2	Framber Valdez	L	@ARI	99.1%	68%	6.1	2.6	6.3
11.4	Frankie Montas	R	LAA	3.6%	57%	5.4	2.0	5.5
10.6	Jacob deGrom	R	ATH	98.4%	69%	5.3	2.4	5.5
9.9	Max Scherzer	R	NYY	14.3%	56%	5.1	2.3	5.3
9.9	Mitch Keller	R	DET	58.6%	56%	5.9	2.8	5.3
9.2	Edward Cabrera	R	SD	13.4%	60%	5.1	2.2	4.9
8.9	Jacob Misiorowski	R	@SEA	83.4%	40%	4.6	2.1	5.9
8.5	Simeon Woods Richardson	R	@LAD	5.2%	44%	4.9	2.2	4.4
8.3	Kyle Hendricks	R	@NYM	1.6%	43%	5.2	2.3	4.2
7.4	Landen Roupp	R	@ATL	11.5%	58%	5.1	2.8	4.9
7.1	Davis Martin	R	@TB	1.3%	49%	5.2	2.8	4.2
6.5	Casey Mize	R	@PIT	62.5%	44%	5.1	2.8	4.2
6.5	Cam Schlittler	R	@TOR	5.7%	44%	4.8	2.6	4.3
6.2	Drew Rasmussen	R	CWS	52.5%	51%	3.8	1.7	3.4
6.0	Richard Fitts	R	@PHI	1.0%	38%	4.4	2.3	3.9
5.8	Chase Burns	R	@WSH	32.7%	59%	4.4	2.6	4.4
5.6	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	HOU	4.0%	32%	5.2	3.4	5.3
5.3	Brad Lord	R	CIN	0.4%	41%	4.2	2.5	4.1
4.6	Brandon Young	R	@CLE	0.3%	49%	4.4	2.9	4.1
4.5	Joey Cantillo	L	BAL	1.8%	51%	4.2	3.1	5.4
4.0	Erick Fedde	R	@COL	6.2%	65%	5.2	4.6	5.4
3.8	Davis Daniel	R	SF	0.1%	42%	4.7	3.4	4.2
	TBD		@CHC	0.0%	27%	0.0	0.0	0.0
	TBD		@TEX	0.0%	31%	0.0	0.0	0.0
	TBD		@MIA	0.0%	40%	0.0	0.0	0.0
-3.6	Bradley Blalock	R	STL	0.0%	35%	4.8	6.1	3.8

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Frankie Montas started four games before the break, with the last being his top effort, fanning five with no walks in five innings against the Kansas City Royals. His first start since play resumed is a favorable home date with the New York Mets hosting the Los Angeles Angels. Montas fanned a respectable 17 in 18 2/3 innings and has a chance to build on that, facing the lineup with the second highest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill.
Edward Cabrera experienced elbow discomfort in his final start before the break. In the 11 outings, Cabrera recorded a 2.11 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, with 60 punchouts in 59 2/3 innings. Last time, the Miami Marlins righty yielded four runs in four frames, albeit with six strikeouts and no walks. He was able to throw twice over the break and has been cleared to take the hill against the San Diego Padres in South Beach. The Padres don't fan much, but they walk and hit homers at a below average clip, so Cabrera should rebound and start a new string of solid efforts.
You know the deal; you can't just make a bad outing disappear. However, selectively overlook Chase Burns disaster against the Boston Red Sox in his second career start and he posted a 3.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his other three outings, with a whopping 25 strikeouts in those 15 2/3 frames. Burns will experience the standard ups and downs of a young hurler, but not many have his upside. He's worth the risk with the Cincinnati Reds visiting the Washington Nationals, sporting the seventh lowest wOBA versus right-handers.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

Mitch Keller is the best 3-10 pitcher in the league. His 3.48 ERA and 1.14 WHIP deserve a better fate. As luck would have it, Keller's first opponent after the break is the Detroit Tigers, who enjoy the best record in the league entering Monday's action. His 18.7% strikeout rate is below average, but the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander has compiled at least six stanzas in 15 of his 20 efforts. Even so, with a pedestrian strikeout total and a low chance of winning, it's best to avoid Keller in this early week matchup. There will be other chances to capture pitching points.

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

Sometimes low-hanging fruit is the sweetest. The Colorado Rockies are sending Bradley Blalock to the Coors Field hill. The righty has yielded 24 earned runs and 33 hits in only 21 2/3 innings. The St. Louis Cardinals open the week with a road series in Denver, rendering Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera as must-adds for this juicy matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.