Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 4, 2025, 08:30 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.5	Bryan Woo	R	PIT	93.3%	-190	7.5	63%	5.7	1.8	5.5
11.8	Spencer Strider	R	BAL	89.6%	-180	8.5	57%	5.6	2.6	7.0
10.8	Jesus Luzardo	L	CIN	78.3%	-165	8.5	49%	5.7	2.6	6.3
10.0	Andrew Abbott	L	@PHI	82.8%	+140	8.5	51%	5.7	2.7	5.3
9.5	Kumar Rocker	R	@SD	4.6%	EVEN	8.5	52%	4.9	1.9	4.7
9.4	Sandy Alcantara	R	MIL	42.8%	EVEN	8.5	50%	5.8	2.7	5.0
9.4	Reese Olson	R	@CLE	31.9%	-115	7.5	54%	5.2	2.3	5.2
9.2	Kris Bubic	L	@ARI	94.5%	-105	8.5	58%	5.6	2.9	5.5
8.7	JP Sears	L	SF	6.9%	-110	10.5	49%	5.4	2.8	5.0
8.7	Justin Verlander	R	@ATH	12.4%	-110	10.5	51%	5.6	2.9	5.2
8.2	Michael Soroka	R	BOS	10.5%	-110	8.5	47%	5.2	2.8	5.1
8.2	Quinn Priester	R	@MIA	35.3%	-120	8.5	50%	5.4	2.6	4.7
7.9	Zack Littell	R	@MIN	38.4%	-105	9.5	42%	5.3	2.9	4.7
7.8	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	KC	15.8%	-115	8.5	42%	5.4	2.9	5.2
7.8	Marcus Stroman	R	@NYM	2.8%	-110	9.5	60%	5.0	2.3	4.1
7.6	Randy Vasquez	R	TEX	2.7%	-120	8.5	48%	5.1	2.3	3.6
7.5	Justin Hagenman	R	NYY	0.1%	-110	9.5	40%	5.1	2.8	5.0
7.0	Lucas Giolito	R	@WSH	25.2%	-110	8.5	53%	5.2	3.2	5.4
7.0	Colin Rea	R	STL	5.5%	-160	9.5	52%	5.2	3.0	4.5
6.9	Chris Paddack	R	TB	4.9%	-115	9.5	58%	5.2	3.0	4.3
6.7	Slade Cecconi	R	DET	5.2%	-105	7.5	46%	4.7	2.6	4.6
6.6	Lance McCullers Jr.	R	@LAD	4.9%	+150	9.5	55%	4.6	2.6	4.6
6.6	Bailey Falter	L	@SEA	7.3%	+160	7.5	37%	4.7	2.3	3.7
6.5	Charlie Morton	R	@ATL	7.4%	+150	8.5	43%	5.1	3.2	5.2
6.3	Kyle Hendricks	R	@TOR	2.8%	+140	9.5	50%	5.3	3.0	3.8
6.3	Miles Mikolas	R	@CHC	3.2%	+135	9.5	48%	5.2	3.0	4.1
3.7	Eric Lauer	L	LAA	8.5%	-165	9.5	50%	4.4	3.3	4.6
3.4	Ben Casparius	R	HOU	5.9%	-180	9.5	45%	2.7	1.6	2.8
2.3	Adrian Houser	R	@COL	17.9%	-125	11.5	62%	5.0	4.8	4.8
-5.5	Antonio Senzatela	R	CWS	0.2%	+105	11.5	38%	4.5	6.4	3.5

Pitchers to stream on Friday

After ending May with a 8.47 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Sandy Alcantara posted a 4.34 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in five June efforts, including his last outing where he yielded seven runs in six frames to the Arizona Diamondbacks. With the Miami Marlins hosting the Milwaukee Brewers, Alcantara is in a good spot to get back on track. The Brewers experience a significant park downgrade while sporting the ninth-lowest wOBA facing right-handers.
Lucas Giolito was once a top prospect in the Washington Nationals system. He pitched 21 1/3 innings for the club in 2016 before being one of three prospects dealt to the Chicago White Sox for Adam Eaton. On Friday, Giolito faces the team that drafted him in the first round back in 2012. The righty is on a roll, sporting a 0.72 ERA and an 0.92 WHIP over his last four outings, with 24 punchouts over 25 frames. Meanwhile, the Nationals offense is below average when facing right-handers.
Kumar Rocker is coming off a quality start, helping him to a 2.20 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over his last three outings. He has fanned 16 with five walks over that 16 1/3 innings stretch. Next up is a road date with a struggling San Diego Padres offense. Over the last month, the Padres sport the eighth-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Friday's best matchups for pitchers

Friday's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Friday

It's not often the White Sox are discussed as batters to stream, but they only play in Coors Field every other year. Friday kicks off a three-game road series with the Colorado Rockies and, unsurprisingly, every White Sox hitter is available in at least 68% of ESPN leagues, with most available in over 90%. The primary targets are Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth and Mike Tauchman.

Hitters to avoid on Friday

For the past month, the Philadelphia Phillies sport the fifth-lowest wOBA with a left-hander on the hill. On Friday, they'll face Cincinnati Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott, albeit at home in Citizens Bank Park. Even so, Abbott has yielded more than one earned run in only two of 14 starts, so avoiding Phillies bats is prudent.

Friday's best matchups for hitters

Friday's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Friday's top home run prop bets

Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.12 EV
One reason to bet this: The Seattle Mariners have just one same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cruz stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Will Smith | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.48 EV
One reason to bet this: Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height in MLB.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.82 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero Jr. has been unlucky with home runs this year; his 19.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is lower than his projected 29.5 expected HR/600.

Friday's top pitcher prop bets

Michael Soroka | UNDER 2.5 ER (-150)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.03 EV
One reason to bet this: The Boston Red Sox have the fifth-worst projected batting order in terms of overall offensive ability.

Eric Lauer | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.89 EV
One reason to bet this: Lauer has been lucky with strikeouts this year, posting a 9.00 K/9 despite his true talent level projected to be 8.15 -- a 0.85 K/9 disparity.

Adrian Houser | UNDER 4.5 K (-160)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.55 EV
One reason to bet this: Coors Field is the No. 1 venue in MLB for suppressing strikeouts.

Friday's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Orioles @ Braves | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $3.86 EV

Cardinals @ Cubs | NRFI (+115)
Projection: 48% chance of NO RUN with a $2.66 EV

Reds @ Phillies | YRFI (+110)
Projection: 49% chance of RUN with a $2.06 EV