Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Sunday

Todd ZolaJun 22, 2025, 09:02 AM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SUNDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.9	Logan Gilbert	R	@CHC	96.9%	-115	11.5	58%	5.9	2.3	6.1
12.3	Seth Lugo	R	@SD	69.3%	-115	8.5	55%	6.1	2.2	5.2
11.8	David Peterson	L	@PHI	67.6%	-105	9.5	58%	6.0	2.4	5.7
11.3	Andrew Abbott	L	@STL	78.7%	-110	9.5	55%	5.8	2.2	5.1
11.2	Jesus Luzardo	L	NYM	74.9%	-115	9.5	42%	5.8	2.6	6.4
10.7	Chris Bassitt	R	CWS	72.5%	-215	8.5	59%	5.9	2.6	5.6
10.4	Robbie Ray	L	BOS	92.1%	-160	7.5	51%	5.3	2.2	5.8
9.6	Dean Kremer	R	@NYY	3.7%	+155	9.5	53%	5.5	2.6	5.1
9.2	Sandy Alcantara	R	ATL	45.8%	+125	8.5	51%	5.8	2.7	4.9
8.7	Zack Littell	R	DET	27.5%	-115	8.5	52%	5.4	2.7	4.6
8.6	JP Sears	L	CLE	7.8%	+115	9.5	51%	5.5	2.9	4.9
8.2	Lucas Giolito	R	@SF	12.1%	+135	7.5	49%	5.3	2.8	5.4
8.1	Will Warren	R	BAL	26.1%	-185	9.5	47%	4.8	2.4	5.3
7.9	Bryce Elder	R	@MIA	11.6%	-150	8.5	49%	5.4	2.8	4.8
7.8	Michael Soroka	R	@LAD	3.9%	+240	9.5	52%	5.2	2.8	4.7
7.5	Randy Vasquez	R	KC	3.0%	-105	8.5	45%	5.1	2.2	3.6
7.5	Colin Rea	R	SEA	9.3%	-105	11.5	42%	5.2	2.9	4.9
7.5	Adrian Houser	R	@TOR	10.6%	+180	8.5	41%	5.4	2.7	4.3
7.3	Miles Mikolas	R	CIN	5.0%	-110	9.5	45%	5.3	2.7	4.1
7.2	Casey Mize	R	@TB	59.3%	-105	8.5	48%	5.1	2.7	4.4
6.6	Slade Cecconi	R	@ATH	4.0%	-135	9.5	49%	4.7	2.8	4.6
6.3	Quinn Priester	R	@MIN	26.2%	+125	9.5	44%	5.2	3.0	4.5
6.3	David Festa	R	MIL	2.4%	-150	9.5	56%	4.5	2.7	5.0
6.3	Ryan Gusto	R	@LAA	4.9%	-125	9.5	57%	4.8	2.9	4.6
6.1	Bailey Falter	L	TEX	10.5%	-120	9.5	50%	4.8	2.6	3.6
5.0	Jack Leiter	R	@PIT	18.2%	EVEN	9.5	50%	4.7	3.0	4.6
4.6	Kyle Hendricks	R	HOU	3.0%	+105	9.5	43%	5.2	3.5	3.8
3.5	Ben Casparius*	R	WSH	8.1%	-300	9.5	48%	3.0	1.8	3.0
2.5	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@COL	63.6%	-200	12.5	62%	5.1	5.3	5.6
-7.4	Antonio Senzatela	R	ARI	0.2%	+165	12.5	38%	4.5	7.2	3.2

Pitchers to stream on Sunday

Those needing to make a last day of the scoring period push in head-to-head leagues will be disappointed with Sunday's options. Over his last two outings, Houston Astros Ryan Gusto has fanned 15 batters in 11 innings. Next up is a Los Angeles Angels lineup with the league's highest strikeout rate facing right-handers. It's a bit under the radar, but Gusto is the top streaming option on the docket.
After a rough couple of months to open the season, Lucas Giolito has posted two straight quality starts for the Boston Red Sox, fanning 10 while walking just one last time against the Seattle Mariners. Given, there's a new wrinkle to the San Francisco Giants, but for the season the club's wOBA facing right-handers is below average. Giolito benefits from one of the biggest possible deltas between pitching and hitting venues with Oracle Park being considerably more pitching friendly than Fenway Park.
With three straight solid outings, Sandy Alcantara has pitched his way into streaming consideration. He recorded a 2.12 ERA and .88 WHIP with 15 strikeouts over 17 innings in that span. Sunday will be a challenge facing the Atlanta Braves, but at least Alcantara will do so at home in cavernous LoanDepot Park. The Braves offense continues to underachieve with a league average wOBA.

Pitchers to avoid on Sunday

Those being patient with Brandon Pfaadt have been rewarded with a pair of decent outings, but they're nowhere near enough to trust him when the Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up a weekend series in Coors Field.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Sunday

It's going to be fun chasing hitting in Sacramento on Sunday afternoons. Going forward, almost every Athletics home game will be an evening affair, except on Sundays. The afternoon heat will make Sutter Health Park play even smaller. In almost any other venue, Cleveland Guardians SP Slade Cecconi would have made the streaming cut, but it's too risky. However, using the right-handed contingent of the Guardians lineup could pay dividends facing Athletics southpaw JP Sears and his 9.29 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over his previous 31 frames. David Fry, Carlos Santana and Lane Thomas are the chief beneficiaries.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Aaron Judge | OVER 0.5 HR (+220)
Projection: 36% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.07 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the ninth-lowest average fence height.

Brenton Doyle | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.82 EV
One reason to bet this: Doyle has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.2-mph average to last years 89.1-mph average.

Luis Garcia Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.32 EV
One reason to bet this: Garcia has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.9-mph average to last seasons 92.6-mph EV.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Miles Mikolas | UNDER 3.5 K (-110)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.95 EV
One reason to bet this: Scott Barry grades out as a "hitters umpire" and is likely to be umping in todays game.

Ryan Gusto | UNDER 5.5 K (-155)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Projected catcher Yainer Diaz profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to projections.

Quinn Priester | UNDER 3.5 K (+115)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.79 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the best hitting conditions on the schedule today.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Rangers @ Pirates | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $5.59 EV

White Sox @ Blue Jays | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $1.35 EV

Guardians @ Athletics | NRFI (+105)
Projection: 49% chance of NO RUN with a $1.17 EV