Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

Jun 24, 2025, 06:44 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.7	Tarik Skubal	L	ATH	99.9%	-300	7.5	61%	6.1	2.0	6.5
14.6	Spencer Strider	R	@NYM	88.2%	-150	8.5	54%	5.9	1.9	7.1
12.6	Framber Valdez	L	PHI	98.7%	-150	7.5	56%	6.0	2.4	6.5
11.4	Carlos Rodon	L	@CIN	97.0%	-165	9.5	61%	5.6	2.7	6.3
11.3	Garrett Crochet	L	@LAA	99.8%	-190	7.5	67%	5.6	2.9	6.7
11.1	Freddy Peralta	R	PIT	95.1%	-210	7.5	57%	5.5	2.5	6.3
10.8	Ranger Suarez	L	@HOU	80.7%	+125	7.5	44%	5.9	2.5	5.5
10.5	Luis Castillo	R	@MIN	94.9%	-105	8.5	49%	5.9	2.9	5.9
10.2	Jameson Taillon	R	@STL	57.7%	-120	8.5	58%	5.7	2.5	4.6
10.1	Frankie Montas	R	ATL	1.9%	+125	8.5	46%	5.4	2.2	5.1
9.2	Justin Verlander	R	MIA	12.5%	-175	7.5	59%	5.6	2.6	4.8
8.3	Kris Bubic	L	TB	94.8%	-145	8.5	56%	5.6	3.1	5.4
8.1	Ryne Nelson	R	@CWS	11.6%	-135	8.5	56%	5.1	2.6	4.5
8.0	Trevor Williams	R	@SD	0.7%	+140	8.5	40%	5.3	2.4	4.1
7.9	Michael McGreevy	R	CHC	5.1%	EVEN	8.5	42%	5.7	2.9	4.3
7.9	Charlie Morton	R	TEX	12.5%	-130	9.5	57%	5.4	3.0	5.2
7.8	Luis Severino	R	@DET	17.7%	+240	7.5	39%	5.8	3.2	4.9
7.7	Ryan Bergert	R	WSH	3.8%	-165	8.5	60%	4.7	2.1	4.4
7.5	Chris Paddack	R	SEA	6.9%	-115	8.5	51%	5.3	2.9	4.6
6.9	Jordan Leasure	R	ARI	0.1%	+115	8.5	44%	5.1	3.1	5.4
6.6	Taj Bradley	R	@KC	40.7%	+120	8.5	44%	5.3	3.2	4.9
6.3	Chase Burns	R	NYY	31.5%	+140	9.5	39%	5.0	3.1	5.2
5.8	Logan Allen	L	TOR	2.8%	-105	8.5	58%	5.0	3.0	4.2
5.6	Andrew Heaney	L	@MIL	17.4%	+175	7.5	43%	4.8	2.9	4.5
5.6	Cal Quantrill	R	@SF	0.4%	+145	7.5	41%	4.9	2.8	4.0
4.0	Tyler Anderson	L	BOS	7.7%	+160	7.5	33%	5.2	3.8	4.7
3.2	Jacob Latz	L	@BAL	0.2%	+110	9.5	43%	2.9	1.9	3.3
2.6	Eric Lauer	L	@CLE	3.0%	-115	8.5	42%	4.1	3.3	4.4
-1.4	Justin Wrobleski	L	@COL	0.4%	-240	11.5	58%	3.7	4.6	3.8
-3.6	German Marquez	R	LAD	0.5%	+200	11.5	42%	4.6	6.1	4.1

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Charlie Morton has been solid in four of his past five starts, sporting a 2.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 34 strikeouts in 26 frames. That includes a hiccup when the Baltimore Orioles were in Sacramento and the Athletics tallied four runs against Morton in just 2⅓ innings. The Texas Rangers visit Camden Yards on Monday and carry the sixth-lowest road wOBA facing right-handers fueled by an above-average strikeout rate.
Justin Verlander is expected to come off the paternity list in advance of the San Francisco Giants' home date with the Miami Marlins. It will be Verlander's second outing after missing a month with a pectoral strain. He lasted only 4⅔ innings against the Cleveland Guardians, but Verlander collected six strikeouts with just one walk before exiting. The Marlins offense has been more productive than that of the Guardians, but on a slate devoid of other appealing options, Verlander is in play, as he's protected by one of the best pitching venues in MLB.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

For his past several starts, Taj Bradley has been discussed as a streaming option. His ESPN rostership is below 50%, so he still qualifies as a streamer, but he needs to regain form before being trusted. His ERA over his past three outings is 12.54, and that's with being charged with no earned runs against the Mets, though he did yield five unearned scores in four frames. Bradley logged only nine strikeouts while walking seven in the stretch, spanning just 9⅓ innings. The safe play is avoiding Bradley when the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Kansas City Royals.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora has been criticized for keeping rookie left-handers Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer on the bench versus southpaws, but the offense has the fifth-highest wOBA with a lefty on the hill over the past month. Ceddanne Rafaela, Rob Refsnyder and Trevor Story are the primary options with the Red Sox in Anaheim for a matchup against Los Angeles Angels LHP Tyler Anderson.

Hitters to avoid on Tuesday

It's time for the weekly check on opposing teams' success running on the Royals. There are only 16 successful steals against the Royals, and their 45% caught stealing rate continues to lead the league. In a matchup of strength versus strength, the Rays open a three-game set in Kauffman Stadium, toting a league-high 104 steals with them. Nineteen of the Rays' steals are courtesy of Chandler Simpson, who continues to hone his defense with Triple-A Norfolk. However, over one quarter of Tampa Bay's swipes have come from the legs of Jose Caballero (29). Hitting just .223 with two homers, Caballero needs to run to be a fantasy asset. It's best to avoid him for this three-game series.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $57.36 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system estimates Langford's true offensive ability to be .358, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .036 gap between that figure and his actual .322 wOBA.

Adolis Garcia | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $34.31 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks). This game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games today at 99 degrees.

Josh Jung | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.98 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 5 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs for right-handed batters, per my projections, is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Chase Burns | UNDER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.51 EV
One reason to bet this: It is anticipated that we will see huge "hitter's umpire" Mark Wegner calling pitches today.

German Marquez | UNDER 3.5 K (-135)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Coors Field grades out as the worst park in the game for strikeouts, per my projections.

Cal Quantrill | UNDER 3.5 K (-105)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Quantrill's 2,131-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in only the 14th percentile among all starting pitchers.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Yankees @ Reds | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $7.16 EV

Dodgers @ Rockies | YRFI (-165)
Projection: 65% chance of RUN with a $6.22 EV

Braves @ Mets | YRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $0.56 EV