Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

ESPN Fantasy

Jun 18, 2025, 06:57 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
15.7	Tarik Skubal	L	PIT	99.9%	-310	6.5	67%	6.1	1.9	6.6
13.8	Garrett Crochet	L	@SEA	99.8%	-120	6.5	52%	5.7	2.0	7.2
12.6	Sonny Gray	R	@CWS	95.8%	-185	8.5	64%	5.7	2.2	6.2
12.5	Framber Valdez	L	@ATH	98.7%	-165	9.5	55%	6.1	2.5	6.6
12.4	Luis Castillo	R	BOS	95.0%	EVEN	6.5	48%	6.1	2.5	6.1
12.2	Ranger Suarez	L	@MIA	77.3%	-190	7.5	62%	6.0	2.3	5.5
11.8	Chris Sale	L	NYM	99.0%	-180	8.5	61%	5.6	2.6	6.7
10.7	Jameson Taillon	R	MIL	66.0%	-150	7.5	62%	5.7	2.4	4.8
9.8	Justin Verlander	R	CLE	9.3%	-130	7.5	54%	5.6	2.4	4.9
9.7	Kris Bubic	L	@TEX	95.0%	-125	8.5	52%	5.6	2.7	5.8
9.4	Luis Severino	R	HOU	18.7%	+140	9.5	45%	5.9	2.7	4.8
9.3	Taj Bradley	R	BAL	45.8%	-125	9.5	51%	5.4	2.7	5.5
9.0	Bailey Ober	R	@CIN	72.2%	-105	9.5	57%	5.3	3.0	5.8
8.7	Ryan Yarbrough	L	LAA	12.3%	-225	9.5	61%	5.1	2.5	4.7
8.4	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	@TOR	3.4%	-105	8.5	57%	5.5	2.9	4.9
8.4	Nick Lodolo	L	MIN	49.5%	-115	9.5	43%	5.1	2.8	5.8
7.8	Stephen Kolek	R	@LAD	6.3%	+150	9.5	54%	5.5	2.8	4.8
7.6	Mitchell Parker	L	COL	8.0%	-175	9.5	53%	5.1	2.8	4.8
7.0	Logan Allen	L	@SF	1.9%	+110	7.5	46%	5.1	2.6	4.3
6.5	Emmet Sheehan	R	SD	3.6%	-180	9.5	46%	3.7	1.8	4.1
6.4	Trevor Rogers	L	@TB	1.9%	+105	9.5	49%	5.1	2.8	4.4
6.4	Adam Mazur	R	PHI	0.1%	+160	7.5	38%	4.7	2.4	3.9
6.4	Jacob Misiorowski	R	@CHC	45.4%	+125	7.5	38%	4.2	2.1	5.0
6.4	Patrick Corbin	L	KC	6.9%	+105	8.5	48%	5.5	3.4	4.5
6.0	Andrew Heaney	L	@DET	20.0%	+250	6.5	33%	4.9	2.9	4.5
5.9	Jack Kochanowicz	R	@NYY	0.5%	+185	9.5	39%	5.0	2.8	3.9
5.7	Sean Burke	R	STL	2.3%	+155	8.5	36%	5.0	3.1	4.7
5.0	German Marquez	R	@WSH	0.6%	+145	9.5	47%	5.0	3.3	4.2
4.7	Paul Blackburn	R	@ATL	0.5%	+150	8.5	39%	5.0	3.4	4.5
2.6	Eric Lauer	L	ARI	0.7%	-115	8.5	43%	4.3	3.3	3.9

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

Taj Bradley is in a good spot to rebound with Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Baltimore Orioles. After stringing three quality starts, Bradley mustered only four frames in each of his last two outings. The Orioles offense has been better this month, but they're still a below average unit facing righties, with an above average strikeout rate.
Mitchell Parker has been a disappointment for the Washington Nationals, but with a home tilt against the Colorado Rockies, he should be able to get back on track. The Rockies carry the lowest road wOBA on the road facing lefties.
Entering his last start, it appeared that Nick Lodolo turned the corner with three quality starts in four outings, featuring a 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 22 punchouts in 23 innings over that span. However, he struggled facing the Cleveland Guardians in his last effort. Next up is another AL Central club with the Minnesota Twins visiting the Great American Ballpark. Lodolo takes on a lineup with the fourth highest strikeout rate facing lefties, fueling a below average wOBA.

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

Jacob Misiorowski was impressive in his debut, throwing five frames without allowing a hit or a run and fanning five, though he did walk four batters. The Milwaukee Brewers rookie started the sixth inning, but after appearing to slip while facing the leadoff hitter, he was lifted with what was later deemed cramps. As exciting as he is, Misiorowski is a risk for his second start, a road matchup with the Chicago Cubs. Not only is he facing the league's top-scoring offense, but there is also a slight concern over leaving his inaugural start with an injury.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

The San Francisco Giants like to deploy platoons, so look for a heavy right-handed lineup facing Guardians southpaw Logan Allen in Oracle Park. Willy Adames, Heliot Ramos, Wilmer Flores, Casey Schmitt and Jerar Encarnacion are all candidates for a productive evening at home.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Houston Astros LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Jorge Polanco | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.70 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.6 mph in this contest, the second-most-favorable of the day for batters.

Mike Trout | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.60 EV
One reason to bet this: This year, Trout's 16.7 Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 95th percentile among his peers.

Logan O'Hoppe | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.34 EV
One reason to bet this: O'Hoppe's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (22.7 degrees) is a significant increase over his 16 degrees figure from last year.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Stephen Kolek | UNDER 3.5 K (-125)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.76 EV
One reason to bet this: Dodger Stadium grades out as the No. 21 park in the majors for strikeouts, per my projections.

Jameson Taillon | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Taillon's fastball velocity (91.7 mph) grades out in the 23rd percentile among all SP this year.

Adam Mazur | UNDER 4.5 K (-150)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.55 EV
One reason to bet this: Mazur's 2,109-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 17th percentile of all starters.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Orioles @ Rays | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $5.08 EV

Padres @ Dodgers | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 60% chance of RUN with a $5.06 EV

Angels @ Yankees | YRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $4.04 EV