Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

Jun 17, 2025, 07:54 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.8	Bryan Woo	R	BOS	89.3%	-180	7.5	61%	5.7	1.9	5.2
12.3	Jesus Luzardo	L	@MIA	79.8%	-200	8.5	61%	5.9	2.4	6.3
10.8	Spencer Schwellenbach	R	NYM	94.0%	-125	8.5	50%	6.0	2.9	5.8
10.6	Andrew Abbott	L	MIN	75.4%	-125	8.5	52%	5.6	2.7	5.8
10.5	Robbie Ray	L	CLE	91.7%	-165	7.5	56%	5.3	2.1	5.5
9.8	David Peterson	L	@ATL	64.6%	+105	8.5	50%	5.8	2.8	5.6
9.8	Seth Lugo	R	@TEX	65.4%	+110	8.5	56%	5.9	2.9	5.2
9.6	Chris Bassitt	R	ARI	68.1%	-125	8.5	55%	5.9	2.9	5.4
9.4	Shane Smith	R	STL	27.3%	+125	8.5	50%	5.1	2.1	5.2
9.2	Dean Kremer	R	@TB	3.4%	+105	9.5	56%	5.6	2.7	4.9
8.9	Will Warren	R	LAA	19.5%	-255	9.5	59%	4.7	2.3	5.6
8.6	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@TOR	61.7%	+105	8.5	45%	5.5	2.9	5.0
8.2	Michael Soroka	R	COL	6.5%	-200	9.5	59%	5.2	2.9	4.9
8.2	Zack Littell	R	BAL	29.4%	-125	9.5	44%	5.4	2.8	4.5
8.2	Matthew Liberatore	L	@CWS	29.9%	-150	8.5	50%	4.9	2.4	4.5
8.1	Chad Patrick	R	@CHC	11.7%	+130	9.5	49%	5.2	2.7	5.1
7.8	Ben Brown	R	MIL	9.3%	-155	9.5	51%	5.0	2.7	5.4
7.5	JP Sears	L	HOU	8.1%	+120	10.5	50%	5.5	3.1	4.5
6.8	Walker Buehler	R	@SEA	23.0%	+150	7.5	39%	4.9	2.7	4.7
6.8	Kyle Hendricks	R	@NYY	0.9%	+210	9.5	41%	5.2	2.8	4.3
6.5	Slade Cecconi	R	@SF	1.9%	+140	7.5	44%	4.7	2.6	4.2
6.4	Randy Vasquez	R	@LAD	2.0%	+175	9.5	52%	4.9	2.6	3.6
6.1	Casey Mize	R	PIT	57.1%	-205	8.5	48%	5.1	2.9	4.3
6.0	David Festa	R	@CIN	2.3%	+105	8.5	48%	4.5	3.1	5.5
5.7	Cal Quantrill	R	PHI	0.5%	+165	8.5	39%	4.9	2.8	4.1
5.6	Bailey Falter	L	@DET	8.7%	+170	8.5	52%	4.7	2.7	3.5
5.4	Matt Sauer*	R	SD	0.1%	-210	9.5	48%	3.9	2.1	3.6
4.9	Jason Alexander	R	@ATH	0.0%	-145	10.5	50%	5.0	3.2	4.3
4.3	Jack Leiter	R	KC	18.8%	-130	8.5	44%	4.7	3.2	4.4
1.2	Antonio Senzatela	R	@WSH	0.1%	+165	9.5	41%	4.9	4.2	3.4

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Over his first 11 appearances, Ben Brown used his changeup just 2.9% of the time. Over his past three, that number is up to 8.2%. The increase might not seem like much, but it's his third pitch and helps keep opposing batters from sitting on his four-seam fastball or curve. Brown's strikeouts ticked up while his walks edged down in his past three efforts, though the Philadelphia Phillies scored six times in 5 2/3 innings, so the righty still has work to do. On Tuesday, Brown and the Chicago Cubs host a Milwaukee Brewers team that, while sporting the sixth-lowest wOBA facing right-handers, are productive against changeups, so this will be a good test for the Cubs righty.
Most Rule 5 pitchers spend the season in mop-up duty; Shane Smith is making his case for AL Rookie of the Year. The Chicago White Sox welcome the St. Louis Cardinals to American Family Field for an interleague set beginning Tuesday. Smith has yet to yield more than three earned runs in an outing this season and has given up only one earned run total over his past two starts, spanning 11 1/3 combined innings.
Michael Soroka has been uneven this season, though his 3.75 xFIP and 3.55 SIERA suggest that his 5.14 ERA is over a run too high. He's pacing toward a career-best K-BB%, but a 67.8% left-on-base mark is sabotaging his ERA. Soroka is in a great spot to lower ratios with a home date against a Colorado Rockies squad with the league's third-lowest wOBA and second-worst strikeout rate versus righties.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

Last week, Brandon Pfaadt rebounded from a pair of disastrous outings, yielding two runs in five frames to the Seattle Mariners. However, both scores came courtesy of solo homers and Pfaadt fanned only four. The effort was encouraging but not sufficient to trust the right-hander on the road at Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays' wOBA facing righties is below average, but they sport the lowest strikeout rate in the league, stripping Pfaadt of any fantasy appeal.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

LHP Bailey Falter's 3.36 ERA is a mirage, with his estimators pegging it well over a run higher. The Pittsburgh Pirates will head to Motown, where the Detroit Tigers' right-handed brethren anxiously await stepping in the box against the southpaw. Spencer Torkelson, Jahmai Jones, Dillon Dingler and Javier Baez are the primary targets for fantasy managers.

Hitters to avoid on Tuesday

The Kansas City Royals lead the league in the fewest stolen bases surrendered, but they've been overtaken by the New York Mets in percentage of runners caught stealing. The Mets on Tuesday open an important NL East series with the Atlanta Braves. Michael Harris II leads the Braves with 10 steals, followed by Ozzie Albies with six. Their allure is lessened matching up with a team throwing out a league-best 41.2% of runners attempting to steal.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $46.82 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% -- 85th percentile) and will be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

Ketel Marte | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Marte hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% -- 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering hell be hitting out towards the leagues 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

Austin Wynns | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.37 EV
One reason to bet this: Wynns' launch angle in recent games (31 degrees over the past week) is considerably higher than his 13.9-degree season-long figure.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Robbie Ray | UNDER 6.5 K (-100)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.60 EV
One reason to bet this: The Cleveland Guardians have seven batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Ray today.

Chad Patrick | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.83 EV
One reason to bet this: Patrick has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up an 8.56 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 8.04 -- a 0.52 K/9 deviation.

Andrew Abbott | UNDER 5.5 K (-115)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.00 EV
One reason to bet this: High humidity has a small, yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs). Today's weather forecast call for the second-highest humidity of the day at 79%.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Rockies @ Nationals | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $7.68 EV

Padres @ Dodgers | YRFI (-140)
Projection: 62% chance of RUN with a $9.28 EV

Twins @ Reds | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $3.28 EV