Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

ESPN Fantasy

Jun 13, 2025, 07:01 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.6	Paul Skenes	R	@CHC	99.9%	EVEN	6.5	56%	6.0	1.9	6.6
12.7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	SF	99.7%	-175	7.5	51%	6.0	2.2	6.2
11.5	Taj Bradley	R	@NYM	45.7%	+140	7.5	51%	5.6	2.2	5.9
11.5	Clay Holmes	R	TB	80.5%	-165	7.5	49%	5.7	2.1	5.4
11.4	Luis Castillo	R	CLE	94.9%	-130	7.5	50%	6.0	2.6	5.7
11.0	Chris Paddack	R	@HOU	16.6%	-105	8.5	60%	5.6	2.3	5.3
11.0	Logan Webb	R	@LAD	98.9%	+145	7.5	49%	6.0	2.6	5.7
10.9	Kevin Gausman	R	@PHI	89.5%	EVEN	7.5	51%	5.8	2.7	6.1
10.8	Ranger Suarez	L	TOR	73.2%	-120	7.5	49%	5.9	2.5	5.4
10.1	Freddy Peralta	R	STL	94.6%	-155	7.5	49%	5.4	2.6	6.0
9.8	Erick Fedde	R	@MIL	11.0%	+130	7.5	51%	5.6	2.5	5.2
9.7	Gavin Williams	R	@SEA	23.9%	+110	7.5	50%	5.1	2.2	5.4
9.3	Garrett Crochet	L	NYY	99.8%	-145	8.5	54%	5.3	3.0	6.9
9.1	Cade Horton	R	PIT	12.1%	-120	6.5	44%	5.3	2.5	5.3
9.0	Nick Martinez	R	@DET	31.2%	+105	8.5	59%	5.3	2.5	4.4
8.0	Colton Gordon	L	MIN	1.1%	-115	8.5	40%	5.1	2.6	5.0
7.8	Charlie Morton	R	LAA	4.8%	-175	10.5	62%	5.4	3.1	5.1
7.8	Bryce Elder	R	COL	23.2%	-310	8.5	57%	5.4	3.2	5.2
7.7	Mitchell Parker	L	MIA	8.1%	-125	8.5	51%	5.2	2.7	4.6
7.3	Michael Wacha	R	ATH	36.7%	-160	8.5	49%	5.5	3.1	4.8
7.1	Stephen Kolek	R	@ARI	8.9%	+110	9.5	57%	5.5	3.0	4.8
7.0	Luis Severino	R	@KC	18.7%	+135	8.5	51%	5.7	3.3	4.6
6.8	Edward Cabrera	R	@WSH	7.3%	+105	8.5	49%	4.8	2.6	4.9
6.4	Adrian Houser	R	@TEX	17.2%	--	--	50%	5.2	3.1	4.5
6.2	Ryan Yarbrough	L	@BOS	9.9%	+120	8.5	46%	4.8	3.1	4.8
5.8	Ryne Nelson	R	SD	1.6%	-130	9.5	43%	5.1	3.1	4.2
5.4	Keider Montero	R	CIN	1.1%	-125	8.5	41%	4.9	3.0	4.3
4.9	Jack Kochanowicz	R	@BAL	0.6%	+145	10.5	38%	5.2	3.3	3.9
3.8	German Marquez	R	@ATL	0.5%	+250	8.5	43%	4.9	3.6	4.1
	TBD		CWS	0.0%	--	--	50%	0.0	0.0	0.0

Pitchers to stream on Friday

Gavin Williams has posted a quality start in three of his past four outings. The time he fell short, Williams walked six, serving as a reminder that he remains vulnerable to control issues, though he walked only two in each of the other efforts. The Cleveland Guardians open a weekend set in the Pacific Northwest against the Seattle Mariners. Predictably, the hosts sport a below average offense at home, including a below average walk rate. Williams makes the streaming cut working in one of the best pitching venues in the league.
Like most rookie pitchers, Cade Horton's first few starts have been uneven. He's coming off one of the lesser efforts, giving up four runs in five frames to the Detroit Tigers on the road. The Chicago Cubs visit the Pittsburgh Pirates this weekend, giving Horton the ideal spot to rebound. PNC Park aids pitchers, and the Pirates average the second fewest runs per game in the league, while fanning at an above average clip.
Prior to his last outing, Edward Cabrera recorded a 2.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the previous five starts, punching out 28 in 27 innings. Despite his solid efforts, he was lifted after 5⅔ innings three times and didn't come out for the sixth inning in the other two contests. Last time out, Cabrera was taken out after four frames, despite yielding just one earned run (along with two unearned runs). He threw only 63 pitches, but he labored through the fourth inning. From a developmental sense, it would be good for Cabrera to learn to work out of jams, after all, it's not going to cost the club a playoff berth. From a fantasy perceptive, it protects Cabrera from disaster starts, increasing his appeal. The Marlins open a road set against the Washington Nationals. The hosts don't strike out much, but their wOBA is well below average, setting up Cabrera for another effective outing.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Friday

It's warming up in the Northeast and Boston Red Sox sport the second best wOBA versus left-handers. The New York Yankees are sending southpaw Ryan Yarbrough to the mound in Fenway Park. Abraham Toro, Carlos Narvaez, Trevor Story, Kristian Campbell and Ceddanne Rafaela all swing from the right side, making solid streaming targets.

Hitters to avoid on Friday

The New York Yankees stole three bases in three tries during the first two games of their series with the Kansas City Royals. However, they were playing with the lead and could afford to be more aggressive. Heading into Thursday's action, opposing teams were still just 13-for-23 attempting steals against the Royals. The Athletics visit Kauffman Stadium over the weekend. The venue squashed power, so if Lawrence Butler and Denzel Clarke are going to be productive, they'll need to run. The prudent play is looking elsewhere this weekend.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Logan O'Hoppe | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Compared to his overall 2025 angle of 19.4 degrees, O'Hoppe has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (10.3 degrees) over the last two weeks.

Jorge Soler | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.76 EV
One reason to bet this: Soler hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% -- 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's fourth-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Zach Neto | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.28 EV
One reason to bet this: Neto has made big improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 8.5% rate last season to 16.2% this year.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Logan Webb | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.03 EV
One reason to bet this: Webb and his 55.9 underlying GB% (per my projections) finds himself in a troublesome spot in this outing given the makeup of the opposing lineup.

Edward Cabrera | UNDER 4.5 K (+120)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.50 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks). This game is projected to have the third-hottest weather on the slate today at 81 degrees.

Adrian Houser | UNDER 4.5 K (-160)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.09 EV
One reason to bet this: In his last start, Houser didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally two Ks.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bet

Rays @ Mets | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $0.54 EV