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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
Jameson Taillon's rostership is at exactly 50%, but even if it was a few ticks above that cutoff, he'd be included since pickings are slim on an abbreviated eight-game slate. The Chicago Cubs continue their week facing the Keystone State with the Pittsburgh Pirates visiting Wrigley for the opener of a four-game series. Taillon won't pile up a bunch of strikeouts, but he's tossed at least six innings in seven of his last eight outings, including the prior five. Expect another solid effort with a home start against the second least productive offense in MLB.
The Milwaukee Brewers will reportedly call up top prospect Jacob Misiorowski to make his debut against the St. Louis Cardinals. Starting a rookie, especially in American Family Field, is a risk, but Misiorowski is one of the top arms in the minors and he has double-digit strikeout potential every time he takes the hill. Control, on the other hand, is an issue. With Triple-A Nashville, the 23-year-old righty fanned 80 with 31 free passes in 63 1/3 innings. Misiorowski's fastball can register triple-digits, and he throws a plus slider. The Cardinals are not an easy matchup as they sport an above-average offense and don't fan much.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
Seth Lugo's 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are in line with his previous four seasons, but there are indications that he could be in store for some struggles over the next three-plus months. Excluding the truncated 2020 season, this is the first year Lugo's ERA estimators are north of 4.00, and his strikeout rate is falling for the sixth consecutive season. It's wise to avoid Lugo when the Kansas City Royals host the potent New York Yankees in Kauffman Stadium.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.61 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.76 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Cardinals hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.82 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.82 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Giants hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.59 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: F | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.02 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
When he's on, Dean Kremer can navigate any lineup. However, his lack of strikeouts leaves the Baltimore Orioles righty vulnerable to subpar efforts. To wit, Kremer has yielded two or fewer runs six times while surrendering at least four tallies in his other seven outings. The left-handed Detroit Tigers enjoy the platoon edge, and several are available in more than half of ESPN leagues, including Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter and Colt Keith.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Giants pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .382 wOBA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .380 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros RHB vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: A+ | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Pittsburgh Pirates RHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: D | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles RHB vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Umpire: F | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .284 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .284 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Gleyber Torres | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.70 EV
One reason to bet this: Torres's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) has increased from last season to this one, going from 16.6% to 21.1%.
Jose Altuve | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.40 EV
One reason to bet this: Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% -- 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's second-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Jake Meyers | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.90 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 8 park in MLB for boosting home runs to RHB, per my projections, is Minute Maid Park.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Patrick Corbin | UNDER 4.5 K (-165)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.45 EV
One reason to bet this: With nine hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Corbin encounters a tough challenge in lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.
Davis Martin | UNDER 3.5 K (+125)
Projection: 48% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.64 EV
One reason to bet this: Per my projections, the offense with the fourth-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Astros, with a 21.4 underlying K%.
Patrick Corbin | OVER 2.5 ER (-115)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.85 EV
One reason to bet this: Similarly, Corbin will be challenged in a big way today, given the handedness of the opposing lineup.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Giants @ Rockies | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 62% chance of RUN with a $10.00 EV
Rangers @ Twins | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $1.55 EV