Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

ESPN Fantasy

Jun 7, 2025, 10:00 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.4	Garrett Crochet	L	@NYY	99.8%	-115	7.5	53%	5.5	2.3	7.1
12.0	Ranger Suarez	L	@PIT	71.5%	-160	8.5	63%	6.0	2.4	5.6
10.9	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	@STL	99.7%	-190	8.5	52%	5.9	2.4	5.6
10.8	Logan Webb	R	ATL	98.8%	-155	7.5	58%	6.1	2.7	5.3
10.6	Luis Castillo	R	@LAA	95.6%	-160	8.5	59%	5.9	2.9	5.8
10.1	Michael Wacha	R	@CWS	41.8%	-135	8.5	56%	5.6	2.4	4.9
9.8	Kevin Gausman	R	@MIN	90.1%	-110	8.5	48%	5.7	2.9	6.0
9.8	Hunter Brown	R	@CLE	98.2%	-120	7.5	52%	5.3	2.5	6.0
9.6	Jameson Taillon	R	@DET	43.8%	-120	8.5	57%	5.8	2.9	4.8
9.6	Erick Fedde	R	LAD	10.5%	+160	8.5	48%	5.6	2.5	5.1
9.4	Jacob deGrom	R	@WSH	96.1%	-165	8.5	55%	5.2	2.6	5.4
9.4	Taj Bradley	R	MIA	57.2%	-155	8.5	52%	5.6	2.7	5.4
9.3	Ryan Yarbrough	L	BOS	20.9%	-105	7.5	47%	5.1	2.3	5.0
9.2	Ryan Weathers	L	@TB	20.9%	+130	8.5	48%	5.1	2.3	5.0
8.5	Luis Severino	R	BAL	22.3%	EVEN	10.5	49%	5.7	3.0	5.1
8.5	Chris Paddack	R	TOR	16.2%	-110	8.5	52%	5.5	2.7	4.7
8.4	Jose Quintana	L	SD	13.6%	-115	8.5	49%	5.6	2.8	4.4
8.3	Charlie Morton	R	@ATH	8.2%	-120	10.5	51%	5.4	2.9	5.6
8.0	Stephen Kolek	R	@MIL	9.1%	-105	8.5	51%	5.7	2.9	5.0
7.9	Nick Martinez	R	ARI	30.9%	-105	9.5	60%	5.1	2.7	4.4
7.9	Gavin Williams	R	HOU	22.0%	EVEN	7.5	48%	5.0	2.6	5.1
7.6	Adrian Houser	R	KC	11.9%	+115	8.5	44%	5.2	2.6	4.4
7.5	Bryce Elder	R	@SF	4.0%	+130	7.5	42%	5.4	2.8	4.5
7.0	Mitchell Parker	L	TEX	6.5%	+140	8.5	45%	5.1	2.9	4.7
6.2	Ryne Nelson	R	@CIN	4.0%	-115	9.5	40%	5.1	3.2	4.7
5.7	Andrew Heaney	L	PHI	18.4%	+135	8.5	37%	4.9	2.9	4.4
5.1	Keider Montero	R	CHC	1.3%	EVEN	8.5	43%	4.9	3.0	4.0
5.1	Jack Kochanowicz	R	SEA	0.8%	+135	8.5	41%	5.2	3.2	3.8
2.8	Clay Holmes	R	@COL	78.6%	-290	10.5	58%	5.2	5.0	5.2
-2.4	Carson Palmquist	L	NYM	0.0%	+235	10.5	42%	4.5	5.9	5.0

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

Michael Wacha is a great example of a pitcher better suited for points formats as compared to category scoring. He doesn't rack up strikeout points, but solid command and control allow him to pitch deeper into his starts, accruing points for innings pitched. Five of Wacha's previous seven efforts have lasted at least six frames, each registering as a quality start. With the Kansas City Royals visiting the Chicago White Sox, Wacha lines up for another solid outing, facing the league's worst offense with a righty on the hill.
A forearm strain kept Ryan Weathers out of action until mid-May. He has made four starts, slowly building up his pitch count. He recorded a 1.15 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his first three outings for the Miami Marlins, fanning 15 in 15 2/3 innings. The lefty wasn't as sharp last time out, yielding four earned runs to the San Francisco Giants in six frames, but he did fan seven. Next up is a road date with the Tampa Bay Rays in George Steinbrenner Field. As expected, the venue has aided offenses, but as a lefty, Weather neutralizes lefty swingers Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe and Jonathan Aranda, three of the Rays' top batters.
After two starts, Chris Paddack had a14.73 ERA with a 2.49 WHIP. He punched out only three in 7 1/3 innings while walking six and yielding three long balls. In the subsequent 10 outings, Paddack posted a 2.17 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, albeit with just 46 strikeouts in 58 stanzas. However, 14 walks and just five homers allowed have compensated for the lack of dominance. While there is risk using Paddack when the Minnesota Twins host the Toronto Blue Jays, his recent run merits streaming consideration, especially in points leagues, since he's facing the offense with the fourth-lowest road wOBA versus right-handers.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

Clay Holmes threw a season-high seven frames against the Colorado Rockies in his last outing, but that came at home. The New York Mets visit Coors Field this week with Holmes taking the hill Saturday. He only gave up a pair of hits in the first meeting, but two left the yard and he only fanned three. The Rockies aren't nearly as daunting at home as usual, but they've shaken up their lineup and recently fortified the middle infield with Ezequiel Tovar and Thairo Estrada activated from the IL. Teams in tight battles in head-to-head leagues should not burn a valuable start in this risky matchup.

Saturday's best matchups for pitchers

Saturday's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Saturday

Jack Kochanowicz surrendered at least four runs in half of his dozen outings, including each of the last three. The Seattle Mariners offense is in a rut, but facing the Los Angeles Angels righty at home could get them back on track. J.P. Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Rowdy Tellez and Randy Arozarena are the main targets.

Saturday's best matchups for hitters

Saturday's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Heriberto Hernandez | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.10 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the third-best of the day for hitters.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 17.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 27.3 Expected HR/600, based on my projectionss interpretation of Statcast data.

Alex Call | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.30 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the third-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Tyler Holton | OVER 1.5 K (+145)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.41 EV
One reason to bet this: Doug Eddings grades out as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be behind the plate in this game.

Chris Paddack | OVER 2.5 ER (+120)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.93 EV
One reason to bet this: Ranking fifth-steepest in the majors this year, Toronto Blue Jays hitters as a unit have compiled a 15.9 degrees launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable standard to study power ability).

Bryce Elder | UNDER 4.5 K (-165)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.31 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Bryce Elder (48.5% GB% via my projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in todays game with four FB hitters in San Franciscos projected batting order.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Cubs at Tigers | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $2.62 EV

Astros at Guardians | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $1.75 EV

Phillies at Pirates | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $0.78 EV