Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

Todd ZolaJun 6, 2025, 07:40 AM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BETand all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.7	Tarik Skubal	L	CHC	99.9%	-190	6.5	65%	6.0	1.9	6.3
13.2	Spencer Schwellenbach	R	@SF	93.2%	-135	7.5	57%	6.1	2.3	5.9
12.2	Seth Lugo	R	@CWS	71.1%	-180	8.5	58%	6.1	2.4	5.4
10.8	Sonny Gray	R	LAD	95.1%	-105	8.5	57%	5.6	2.5	5.8
9.7	Dean Kremer	R	@ATH	8.4%	-125	11.5	55%	5.6	2.7	5.4
9.5	Bryce Miller	R	@LAA	64.7%	-150	9.5	58%	5.3	2.6	5.1
9.3	Bailey Ober	R	TOR	82.5%	-155	8.5	67%	5.3	2.7	5.2
8.6	Colton Gordon	L	@CLE	0.6%	-105	8.5	55%	5.1	2.6	5.3
8.5	Patrick Corbin	L	@WSH	5.9%	-125	9.5	58%	5.5	2.9	4.9
8.4	Zack Littell	R	MIA	31.9%	-175	9.5	53%	5.4	2.7	4.4
8.3	JP Sears	L	BAL	10.2%	+105	11.5	45%	5.4	2.8	4.8
8.2	Will Warren	R	BOS	16.8%	-175	9.5	51%	4.8	2.4	5.5
7.7	Edward Cabrera	R	@TB	9.4%	+145	9.5	47%	4.8	2.4	4.9
7.4	Davis Martin	R	KC	2.7%	+150	8.5	42%	5.4	2.7	4.2
7.4	Nick Lodolo	L	ARI	57.9%	-110	9.5	58%	5.2	3.1	5.3
7.3	Hayden Birdsong	R	ATL	11.3%	+115	7.5	43%	4.7	2.4	5.0
7.2	Kodai Senga	R	@COL	91.2%	-325	10.5	69%	5.5	4.3	6.6
7.1	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	@CIN	2.5%	-110	9.5	42%	5.3	3.2	5.3
6.7	Chad Patrick	R	SD	11.6%	-150	8.5	48%	5.2	2.9	4.5
6.7	Ben Brown	R	@DET	7.8%	+160	6.5	35%	4.8	2.8	5.5
6.6	Walker Buehler	R	@NYY	26.8%	+145	9.5	49%	4.9	2.8	4.7
6.2	Randy Vasquez	R	@MIL	3.4%	+125	8.5	52%	4.9	2.7	3.7
6.0	Michael Soroka	R	TEX	1.7%	+105	9.5	42%	5.0	3.1	4.5
5.7	Bailey Falter	L	PHI	10.7%	+120	8.5	52%	4.7	2.6	3.6
5.5	Justin Wrobleski	L	@STL	0.2%	-115	8.5	43%	4.9	2.8	4.3
5.4	Joe Ross	R	@PIT	0.2%	-145	8.5	48%	4.6	2.7	4.2
5.4	Kyle Hendricks	R	SEA	1.1%	+125	9.5	42%	5.1	3.2	4.0
4.7	Logan Allen	L	HOU	1.8%	-115	8.5	45%	4.8	3.2	4.3
1.7	Eric Lauer	L	@MIN	0.2%	+130	8.5	33%	3.8	3.2	3.9
-7.8	Antonio Senzatela	R	NYM	0.1%	+260	10.5	31%	4.6	7.5	3.6

Pitchers to stream on Friday

Historically, Dean Kremer sports a near league average strikeout rate. It's down a couple of ticks this season but it's climbing with 29 punchouts over his previous 29 1/3 innings. This adds to Kremer's sneaky points league allure as he pitched into the sixth inning in 10 of his 12 starts, including the last 10. The Baltimore Orioles open a road series in Sacramento against the Athletics, so it won't be a cakewalk, but Kremer is the top-ranked streamer on a Friday ledger devoid of the typically more appealing options.
It's risky to use a pitcher coming off a complete game since they'll often have their innings tempered the next time. However, the Tampa Bay Rays are giving Zack Littell five days of rest to recover from his 117-pitch effort to end May. Still, he's eclipsed the century mark in two of his last three outings so don't be surprised if Friday's home date with the Miami Marlins is "five and fly". Littell should still post a solid outing facing a below average offense.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

Nick Lodolo's 2.86 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 29 punchouts on his last 28 1/3 frames edged his rostership to over 50% in ESPN leagues. However, he opens June with a tough home matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The visitors tote an above average lineup facing lefties and fan at the lowest clip with a southpaw on the hill. Those in leagues with a games started limit may want to look elsewhere.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Friday

It's low-hanging fruit, but action returns to Coors Field this weekend with the New York Mets visiting the Colorado Rockies. Grabbing Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Alvarez, Starling Marte and Brett Baty for Friday, and keeping them for the series is a solid approach.

Hitters to avoid on Friday

A common comedic tool is the running gag. This note involves running but is not a gag. Teams have attempted 18 steals against the Kansas City Royals all season, with only half succeeding. Unless things change, for the first game of every Royals' series, the advice will be to gag the opponents whose main asset is steals. With the Chicago White Sox hosting the Royals this weekend, Luis Robert Jr. and his 21 pilfers are best left on the fantasy bench.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.94 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games. Compare his 97-mph average over the last two weeks to his season-long 93.4-mph mark.

Nick Fortes | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.20 EV
One reason to bet this: Fortes' ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) has increased from 2024 to 2025, increasing from 11.6% to 22.2%.

Yandy Diaz | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Diaz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season. Compare his current 95.5-mph average to last year's 91.9-mph mark.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Justin Wrobleski | UNDER 3.5 K (-120)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.69 EV
One reason to bet this: According to my projections, Will Smith (the Dodgers' expected catcher) grades out as a weak pitch framer.

Colton Gordon | UNDER 4.5 K (-150)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Gordon's 2,038-rpm fastball spin rate in 2025 ranks only in the sixth percentile out of all starters.

Davis Martin | UNDER 3.5 K (-125)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.97 EV
One reason to bet this: The Kansas City Royals (20.6 K% per my projections) are projected to have the fifth-least strikeout-prone lineup of all teams today.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Orioles @ Athletics | NRFI (+125)
Projection: 49% chance of NO RUN with a $9.64 EV

Phillies @ Pirates | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $7.89 EV

Rangers @ Nationals | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $3.70 EV