Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Thursday

ESPN Fantasy

Jun 5, 2025, 06:58 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR THURSDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.1	Framber Valdez	L	@PIT	98.2%	-160	7.5	55%	6.1	2.5	6.1
12.1	Bryan Woo	R	BAL	91.4%	-175	7.5	48%	5.6	2.0	5.2
12.0	Dylan Cease	R	@SF	95.5%	EVEN	7.5	45%	5.8	2.3	6.5
11.7	David Peterson	L	@LAD	43.4%	+120	9.5	55%	5.8	2.2	5.7
11.7	Jesus Luzardo	L	@TOR	90.0%	-115	8.5	51%	5.9	2.5	6.1
11.2	Cole Ragans	L	@STL, Gm. 1	94.9%	+110	8.5	52%	5.5	2.2	6.2
10.9	Zach Eflin	R	@SEA	36.6%	+145	7.5	52%	5.5	2.3	5.2
10.8	Robbie Ray	L	SD	88.9%	-120	7.5	55%	5.3	2.0	5.5
10.6	Max Fried	L	CLE	99.5%	-265	8.5	57%	5.6	2.6	6.3
10.2	Ryan Pepiot	R	TEX	36.5%	-155	8.5	60%	5.4	2.2	4.7
9.8	Chris Bassitt	R	PHI	62.7%	-105	8.5	49%	5.9	2.9	5.6
9.7	Mitch Keller	R	HOU	50.8%	+135	7.5	45%	6.0	2.8	5.2
8.8	Noah Cameron	L	@STL, Gm. 2	40.0%	+110	8.5	49%	5.6	2.7	4.9
8.6	Casey Mize	R	@CWS	70.3%	-235	8.5	61%	5.2	2.4	4.5
8.5	Landon Knack	R	NYM	3.1%	-145	9.5	45%	4.8	2.2	5.0
7.7	Jake Irvin	R	CHC	22.0%	+120	9.5	50%	5.5	3.0	4.6
7.6	Matthew Liberatore	L	KC, Gm. 1	54.8%	-130	8.5	48%	4.9	2.3	4.2
7.4	Grant Holmes	R	ARI	22.7%	-150	8.5	60%	5.2	3.1	5.2
7.3	Miles Mikolas	R	KC, Gm. 2	7.5%	-130	8.5	51%	5.4	2.7	3.7
6.6	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@ATL	71.0%	+125	8.5	40%	5.3	3.3	5.0
6.4	Slade Cecconi	R	@NYY	2.2%	+215	8.5	43%	4.7	2.7	4.4
6.3	David Festa	R	@ATH	1.8%	-180	10.5	56%	4.5	2.8	5.3
6.2	Mitch Spence	R	MIN	0.6%	+150	10.5	44%	5.2	3.2	4.6
6.2	Jack Leiter	R	@TB	19.8%	+130	8.5	40%	4.8	2.7	4.6
6.1	Sean Burke	R	DET	2.7%	+195	8.5	39%	5.1	3.0	4.9
6.1	Colin Rea	R	@WSH	7.1%	-145	9.5	50%	5.3	3.4	4.4

Pitchers to stream on Thursday

Ryan Pepiot is the top streaming option on a slate devoid of many options. There are only 12 games, with half of the scheduled starters rostered in at least half of ESPN leagues. Pepiot and the Tampa Bay Rays wrap up a three-game set with the Texas Rangers at George Steinbrenner Field. While he's been better on the road, Pepiot has posted a reasonable 3.64 ERA and 1.26 WHIP at home. The Rangers sport the third lowest wOBA with a righty on the hill.
Mitch Keller has been sitting at just under 50% ESPN rostership for the past month, over which he's recorded five straight quality starts with a 2.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Houston Astros with the eighth lowest wOBA facing righties lining Keller up for another solid outing.
Matthew Liberatore's ESPN rostership has been jostling around 50% for the past three weeks. Even with a hiccup last time, Liberatore registered a 2.42 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his past nine outings, covering 52 frames. Currently, he's on slightly more than half of the rosters in ESPN leagues, but with scant other choices, we'll bend the 50% cutoff with the St. Louis Cardinals hosting the Kansas City Royals. The southpaw should rebound, squaring off with a lineup sporting the second poorest wOBA facing left-handers.

Pitchers to avoid on Thursday

Heading into his last start, Brandon Pfaadt sported a 3.90 ERA and 1.22 WHIP but his underlying metrics warned of impending troubles with only 49 strikeouts in 62 1/3 innings and 12 homers allowed. Sure enough, in that outing, Pfaadt yielded eight runs without registering an out. Curiously, his ESPN rostership has remained around 78% over the past week, suggesting team managers are reluctant to cut the Arizona Diamondbacks righty. That's defensible but using Pfaadt on Thursday for a road tilt with the Atlanta Braves is a risk worth avoiding.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Thursday

It's beginning to get hot and humid in the Mid-Atlantic region, helping Nationals Stadium play a bit smaller in the summer. The Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs face each other in the finale of their mid-week series, with the visitors turning to Colin Rea for the "bulk start" following an opener. His ERA is a seemingly solid 3.96, but a 1.38 WHIP indicates he allows a lot of traffic. In fact, Rea has yielded 56 hits (eight homers) in 52 1/3 innings. Keibert Ruiz, Luis Garcia Jr., Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell can fortify a fantasy lineup on 12-game docket.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.98 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (9.4 degrees over the past seven days) is quite a bit better than his 6.2 degrees season-long figure.

Jake Burger | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Burger has seen a sizable increase in his exit velocity of late. Just compare his 98.1-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his season-long 90.9-mph figure.

Max Kepler | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Kepler has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year. His 17.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 23.5 expected HR/600, based on my projections.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Casey Mize | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.31 EV
One reason to bet this: Alan Porter grades out as a "hitter's umpire" and is anticipated to be in charge of the strike zone in today's game.

Jesus Luzardo | UNDER 5.5 K (-125)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.89 EV
One reason to bet this: Given the 0.35 gap between Luzardo's 10.36 K/9 and his 10.02 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), its safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts> He should negatively regress in the future.

Landon Knack | UNDER 4.5 K (-125)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.70 EV
One reason to bet this: Knack and his 39.3 underlying GB% (via my projections) finds himself in a difficult position going up against the expected starting lineup in today's game.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Phillies @ Blue Jays | YRFI (+105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $7.11 EV

Mets @ Dodgers | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 59% chance of RUN with a $8.63 EV

Astros @ Pirates | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $0.23 EV